Originally Posted by batz
Fair point - I should've been clearer. My point isn't that once you've made three that you will win your next one. My point is more that if you've made three, you are likely to win a slam at some point in your career.
I agree then - the more slam finals you make, the more likely you are to get the coin finally flip your way. Just like Raonic will never win a slam because he'll never make the final!
P.S. I don't think you need math to draw inferences and make predictions. Personal knowledge and intuition can go a long way. However, if you want to forecast based on numbers alone, you need to assemble a more reliable data set.