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Old 10-29-2012, 09:27 AM   #50
schmke
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Join Date: Jan 2010
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DeanMacBaine View Post
No kidding right. At least his team went 0-2 today at Sectionals. Though Fincher went 2-0 today. He will have to lose badly at least 2-3 more times in the over 40 league to make up for it.
I was just going through some old threads and came across this one. Clearly there are some emotions involved here so I thought I'd do a quick objective analysis from an outsider.

I took a look at all regular season adult, senior, super senior, and adult fall leagues for Fort Worth and here is a chart showing my Estimated DNTRP for one of the named players in this thread. These charts show the individual match rating in blue and the Estimated DNTRP in red.

To explain what we see here, every player has ups and downs and we'll see this on the chart. But it is uncommon for the range of best to worst to be larger than 0.5, and certainly rare to have more than a couple results that far apart and for them to alternate back and forth throughout a year.

First, for 2011:



There are some great results and some terrible results, the range being a full 0.78. And there are clumps near the extremes, with 6 matches above 3.8 and 4 below 3.5. And if we look at which leagues the highs and lows occurred in we see an interesting trend.

The first 7 results are from the senior league 1/22 thru 3/12 and while there are two not as good match results, those were still wins and just against weak competition. The next 5 results are adult league and include one of the worst results but a good result too. The last 2 are fall league and are both poor results.

So for 2011, some of the up and down results are due to the opponents, some could just be to normal good/bad days, but the last 2 poor results in fall league would seem to support the theory that it is played simply to keep one's rating down. Especially with each being a straight sets loss.

For 2012:



Here the range is 0.68, again pretty large. Here the first 5 are senior league and just the 5th was a poor result and was actually a loss. The next 5 are all adult and similarly just one poor result, this one still a win but against weak competition. The last 3 are again fall league where the performance again drops.

For 2012, one of the results is due to the opponent being weak, but again the fall league looks suspicious, especially with them all being convincing losses including a 6-1,6-1 to a self-rated player that isn't shown.

Note that this doesn't include any playoff results which would presumably be against tougher competition and attempted to be won which would all be good results increasing the necessity of some bad matches in the fall league to keep the rating down.
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