First of all, they've already awarded it to Djokovic, so this is more of a rhetorical question. But to me, should Federer win tonight, he would have deserved it (note that this is different from the #1 ranking, which Djokovic clearly deserves--numbers don't lie, and they favour Djokovic... but facts don't either, and to me, they favour Federer).
A win tonight would put Federer ahead, seven tournaments to five, with an extra ATP500 and the extra WTF, which is pretty big (make that huge if you're not totally slam-centric). Also, he won tournaments on all four surfaces/conditions, while Djokovic only won on one out of four (outdoor HC). Djokovic is basically ahead because:
- He reached many more finals (which could also be seen in a negative light, as playing second fiddle to others--Nadal on clay, Federer on grass, Murray and Federer on HC, and yet again Federer indoor should he lose tonight)
- The only surface on which he's won this year (so far) is the most played-upon by far in a tennis season, which is a huge advantage over grass or indoor, for example
- The schedule helped him big time because of the age difference, Federer having to pull out of Toronto and Bercy--this was of course the same for everyone, no so excuse, but the packed schedule of the Olympic year clearly worked in the younger man's favour, as it should
When you factor in the 300+ weeks at #1 at age 31, yes, it would have been thoroughly deserved as far as I'm concerned (even if it is also deserved for Djokovic, of course).