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Old 11-14-2012, 09:31 AM   #10
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Originally Posted by DragonBlaze View Post
LOL!!! Nice find!! Surprised that Fed is above Nadal though (although negligible difference really).
Actually if you think about it, against the field, Fed is a far superior player than Rafa/Djoker/Murray. So while Fed might lose close matches to the top 3, he is capable of turning around stuff on almost everyone else in the field. The other guys are more susceptible to straight set beat-downs in certain conditions (vs certain opponents).

I think the perspective to use here is to compare overall win % vs an opponent with win % vs opponent after losing 1st set. Just using the latter does not tell you anything For e.g. if you looked at Ferrer vs Federer and saw 0 comebacks from Ferrer, it would not make sense to draw a conclusion given the fact that overall Ferrer has 0 wins vs Fed. However given that all the top players have a number of wins vs each other, you could compare their overall performance to performance after losing the 1st set.

Fed's overall win % vs Nadal is 36% (10 wins/28 matches) . His win % vs Nadal after losing the 1st set is 13% ( 2/15). So that's ~ 3:1 ratio (36% divided by 13%)

Nadal's overall win % vs Fed is 64%( 18/28 matches). His win % vs Fed after losing the 1st set is 38%. So that's ~ 2:1 ratio

Conclusion: On a relative basis winning the 1st set is more important for Fed than it is for Nadal.

If I compare Nadal with Djokovic

Nadal's win % vs Djoker is 58% ( 19/33). His win% after losing the 1st set is 17% (2/12). That's a 3.5:1 ratio

Djoker's win % vs Nadal is 42% (14/33). His win % after losing the 1st set is 16% (3/19). That's ~ 2.5:1 ratio.

Conclusion: On a relative basis winning the 1st set is more important for Nadal than it is for Djoker

Again I am certain these stats will move around as players age and the sample size is somewhat small. Just thought it was interesting to speculate.

Last edited by kragster; 11-14-2012 at 09:36 AM.
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