Originally Posted by justinmadison
Here are the top 10 boys 18’s from the current USTA bonus point list. 8 of the 10 players had top 100 rankings for boys 12s. I could not find Blake Bazarnik in the top 100 until boys 14s. The only one I could not find at all was Daniel Kosakowski. On tennisrecruiting Daniel has a freshman year recruiting list ranking of 95%. I don’t know why I did not find his ranking.
Do you still believe the statement “if you look at the top ranked 10-12 year olds you know who will NOT be a highly ranked 18”. It will not surprise me if you do. We are all entitled to our own opinion but not to our own facts.
1 Bangoura, Sekou Coker Bradenton FL B12s #4 7/30/2004
2 Sarmiento, Raymond Fontana CA B12s #7 3/4/2004
3 Sock, Jack E. Lincoln NE B12s #1 4/4/2005
4 Fratangelo, Bjorn Pittsburgh PA B12s #3 2/1/2006
5 Kosakowski, Daniel Downey CA
6 Bazarnik, Blake A. Kildeer IL B14s #89 8/9/2006
7 Leslie, Zachary San Diego CA B12s #89 3/4/2004
8 Austin, Gonzales Miami FL B12s #80 4/4/2005
9 Pasha, Nathan Atlanta GA B12s #12 12/2/2004
10 MacMaster, Casey E. Fort Collins CO B12s #29 6/3/2004
Chase Buchanan #1 b12s 3/4/2004
Ryan Harrison #1 b12s 7/30/2004
Evan King #5 b12s 12/2/2004
So, of your top 10 list 4 were top 10 players in the 12s, 2 were 11-30, 2 were 80 or below, and 2 were not ranked (not including the 3 others). So, guessing at about how many players were in and out of the top rankings at that time, about a 1 in 5 chance of being a top 18 year old if you are a top 12 year old; about a 1 in 40 chance if you are in the next 50, about a 1 in 40 chance if you are in the 50 below that; and 1 in some number of hundreds or thousands if you are not ranked.
There will always be a couple of kids who were not ranked as 12 year olds who become among the top in the world. In one sense, that means that the 12 year old rankings are meaningless. However, statistically, it is much more likely (but not actually likely) if a kid is ranked in the 12s.