Originally Posted by Hops
Have tour conditions really changed that much in the last five years? Do you really believe that if Nadal, Murray and Djokovic were born five years later, their development would have been significantly delayed?
Which is more likely - that conditions are so different that normal career trajectories are being pushed back by 2-3 years, or that via a statistical fluke there simply have been no elite-level talents to emerge in the past 4-5 years?
There simply have been no elite-level talents to emerge in the last 4-5 years. Murray and Djokovic were born seven days apart and Nadal is only 11 1/2 months older. That's an awful lot of era-defining slam-winning talent born under the same moon. Throwing a consistently healthy Federer into the mix who might play until he's 35, you have a perfect storm for top end traffic. Nobody, I repeat, nobody currently in the top 20 will win a slam unless they get a dream draw of just zone beyond comprehension for one two-week period.