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Old 11-30-2012, 08:34 PM   #1
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Default Predicting success of recent college players turned pro?

After reading this article (, I tried to see if there was any correlation between the highest ATP ranking achieved and the former ITA ranking of these players. After all, success in college is usually what decides these players to turn pro or not, so one may see some correlation.

The graph I plotted shows highest ITA rank vs highest ATP rank. I have taken into account only players who have played pro (incl futures) full time for 3 years or more. This is because I estimate that a recent grad has not had a chance to reach his peak in only a few months or even 1 or 2 years. I estimate that after 3 years a player should have shown proof of his aptitudes in the pros (and reached a ranking high enough). I have to stess out that this is only a small sample, and that a larger sample would give much more accurate stats, but this is all I got. It still gives some idea of who succeeded in college and also succeeded in the pros and what could be expected of recent college players turned pro.

One striking observation from this graph is that of all players who reached inside the ATP top 100, all of them achieved a top 10 ITA ranking, except one (top 20). All the others who were beyond the top 20 in college did not become top 100 pros! I think this is quite telling, even if the sample size is small. It is also noteworthy to realize that not all former ITA top 10 made it to the top 100 in the pros. In fact from the data available, 73% of former top 10 college players made it to the top 100, and 36% made it to he top 50! Moreover, 3 out of 4 college players ranked above 20 ITA never made it to the top 250 ATP.

According to this data, one could predict that recent grads like Johnson and Klahn (both former top 5) have a pretty good chance (73%) to make it inside the top 100, whereas Meister for ex. is unlikely to make it... Not wishing any bad luck to anyone though.

Last edited by db379 : 11-30-2012 at 08:41 PM.
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