Originally Posted by tennis_pro
Murray won't be ranked first even if he ties his career-best results in most of the tournaments. Why? Cause at best he'll be even with Djokovic on hard courts (talking about ranking points here/results) but fall behind on clay.
Or let's give it a second look. Murray is currently at 8000 points, Djokovic at almost 13000 which is a 5.000 difference. How on earth is Murray going to make up so much ground?
Murray can outperform Djokovic on grass, and arguably should. For Murray to end the year #1 i think he would have to win both Wimbledon and the U.S Open though (either that or the Australian and one of Wimbledon or the U.S Open), have a 2011 like clay season, and play consistenty and keep winning throughout the year. Otherwise it will be Djokovic.
Nadal has a chance if he is able to come back quickly enough to have great results on hard courts from January-March which seems unlikely. His case he probably has to win both the French and Wimbledon to have a chance (either that or the French and a hard court slam but that being less likely), since poor results post U.S Open are predictable.
Djokovic is the most likely year end #1 but I cant believe he is a mortal lock. He isnt that dominant.