Originally Posted by gmatheis
so if you are a 4.0 play a bunch of people who are bad 4.0s during your league season you would have a much higher chance of being bumped just because your opponents happened to be bad.
Sorry but USTA is right to reject this idea, it sucks!
On the surface, this proposal may seem logical and straightforward, but yes, the flaw is that every win/loss against a same NTRP opponent counts the same and similarly every win/loss against a player with an NTRP higher/lower counts the same. One might argue it all comes out in the wash, but many players don't play enough matches in a year for things to average out and you'd have situations where someone plays court 3 doubles all year and wins, but against weak competition.
It also has issues with doubles in that a weaker player may play with a very good partner and as a result have a very good record because of that, not because of their own play, particularly if the opposition isn't that strong.
To be fair, the proposal does provide for limiting the adjustment, presumably to avoid really whacky things happening in these situations, but if you limit the adjustment too much, what is the point of doing the adjustment? If the win/loss adjustment is sound and equitable, it shouldn't need an artificial limit placed on it. To me, this adjustment approach doesn't seem sound.
If you want to factor wins/losses in, it should be done as part of the individual match rating calculation, not as some end of year override like this proposal. If I were doing the NTRP all over myself, I'd probably include wins/losses in match calculations, but alas the USTA hasn't asked me to do that, well yet anyway