Originally Posted by beernutz
Based on my own experience I believe this to be the case, but in my situation I think I *didn't* get the bump because of my poor performance at state. I had a pretty good year in league and beat three players who got bumped up and lost in singles to players who were both bumped up (I lost one time to a player who was DQed so I technically won that one). I also had some dominant wins over poor to moderate players at my level (1/1, 0/2, 0/2) late in the season.
However, I think the reason I didn't get the bump is that I had a pretty poor state tournament going 0-2 in singles and 1-2 in doubles with every match decided one way or the other by a tiebreak. One of my singles opponents at state also got the bump but overall I think my record there was a large part of why I am still at my current level next year.
On the other hand, as the saying goes, if you torture the data long enough it will confess to anything. Where's my cattle prod?
You piqued my interest so I took a look at your matches.
I don't believe Combo is counted in the Southern section, so your regular season record (on the court) would have been 8-5. I believe the cut-off for matches is 10/31 so the 3 late-season wins you mentioned aren't counted (after 11/1). While the DQ loss on the court counts as a win in the team standings, I believe the 6-1,6-1 score is used as-is for rating purposes.
So, an 8-5 record is good, but by itself is not indicative a bump is appropriate. Couple that with you playing a few self rated players and it is possible that some of what you thought were your better matches didn't actually generate match ratings. But ultimately, it really depends on the specific scores and opponents.
To get bumped, the majority of your results would need to be very good to great. If you play several opponents playing up, like I think you did, it is very hard to generate good match results for those matches. And even if you lose to good players that get bumped at the end of the year, you need the matches to be close to help you and you lost 3 and 1, 1 and 1, and 0 and 3 in 3 of the losses. These aren't close enough to help and probably still hurt your rating unless the opponents are way into the next level above you.
So, you may not have been as close to being bumped as you thought. Nevertheless, if you did poorly in playoffs, that certainly doesn't help either. But you say the matches were tight and these were likely against stronger competition so they might not have hurt as much as you think.