Originally Posted by zagor
Agree, last time Fed played against Berdman at AO, he was down 2-0 in sets and barely clawed his way back to victory, Berdych then backed up that with wins at Wimbledon and USO (along with wins in several masters, I can't remember now off the top of my head) but each time Fed faced Delpo at AO he beat him pretty easily, Delpo did beat Fed the last two times they played but both of those wins were indoors, a different ballgame compared to slow outdoor HC.
To put it in numbers, if they meet in AO QF I'd probably give Berdych 55-45 or even 60-40 odds to beat Fed while I'd give Fed 70-30 odds to beat Delpo (should they meet in QF obviously).
On this surface, Federer can really exploit the limitations in Del Potro's movement, and really uses the surface as a weapon against him. I feel when they play anywhere else, Roger is more on edge, and thinks more about that USO 09 match more, which will always be with him. At AO, he seems to relax and is always trying to use that court to hurt to hurt Del Potro andpast results give him renewed confidence.
Regarding Berdych, they had a competitive match in Madrid also, which went the distance. A good win for Roger in the end. I agree with your odds.