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Old 01-05-2013, 06:49 PM   #2
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 5,533

Federerís Aggressive Margins against Nadal at Wimbledon:

30.5% (2006)
33.1% (2007)
30.3% (2008 )

Nadalís Aggressive Margins against Federer at Wimbledon:

22.4% (2006)
31.0% (2007)
31.5% (2008 )

This run of 3 matches might be where the Aggressive Margin method is at its most impressive. All statistical methods have pros and cons, but whatever the drawbacks of the Aggressive Margin method, it tracks very well with the scorelines of these matches.

What I mean is that every once in a while you see a stat that does not reflect the result of the match, or reflects it poorly -- like when the loser of the match has a higher winner/error differential than his opponent. Or in other cases the victor does have a better differential, but not by the margin reflected in the scoreline.

But the AM method reflects the results and scorelines of these 3 matches very well. In the 2008 match, Nadal was at 31.5% and Federer at 30.3%. Nadal was just 1.2% "better" than Federer, which reflects the fact that he barely won the match 9-7 in the fifth.

In 2007 Federer is at 33.1% and Nadal at 31.0%. The difference there is 2.1%. That looks like a little bit more of a margin of victory, though not much: and it was still a close five-set battle but Federer pulled through by a more comfortable 6-2 margin in the fifth.

In 2006 Federer is at 30.5% and Nadal at 22.4%. That looks like a comfortable victory, but not a blowout: and in fact Federer took that match in four sets. Nadal's performance there is the only one in the three matches not around the 30% level, though his figure of 22.4% is a bit deceptive because it partly reflects his very poor start in that match (he was bageled in the first set, while making a battle of the next three sets).

The AM method will not necessarily work so well with other matches, of course. But the fact that it tracks so well with the scorelines of these 3 matches is a plus for using this method.
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