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Old 01-13-2013, 10:48 AM   #98
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 5,408

Originally Posted by abmk View Post
one good stat to look at might be the % of returns in ...
Djokovic got back 57 of Federer’s 101 good serves: 56.4%
Federer got back 76 of Djokovic’s 113 good serves: 67.3%

Those stats are from and the New York Times tennis blog; I also used ABMK's late-match graphic.

Murray got back 99 of Federer’s 128 good serves: 77.3%
Federer got back 107 of Murray’s 156 good serves: 68.6%

I got stats for the final by using a graphic that was shown in the fourth set. At 2-all, 15-love, right after Murray forces a BH return error, the graphic had Murray with 43 unreturned serves and Federer with 25. I counted to the end – including aces in my count, which I think is the way this is done though I'm not absolutely certain – and finished with Murray at 49 and Federer 29.

The graphic makes it look like Murray was doing nearly twice as well as Federer in serving unreturned serves. That's because it's a simple count of how many serves were unreturned; it does not take into account the fact that Murray served a lot more points in the match than Federer did. When you convert the counts to the percentages above, there was not much of a difference between the two players.

ABMK, even though Federer had more mph on his serves in the semifinal, compared to what he served at Murray, I think these numbers support your argument that Murray returned better than Djokovic (btw I'll have more extensive replies to your posts later).

Federer's second serve was really humming in the semifinal, so if anyone counts the return errors in this match it would be useful to know how many of his second serves went unreturned. If a LOT of Djokovic's return errors occurred on second serve then we might have to give more credit to Federer for making Djokovic's returning look worse than Murray's.

Last edited by krosero : 01-13-2013 at 09:46 PM. Reason: calculated Fed's stat using ABMK's number
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