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Old 01-22-2013, 08:17 AM   #8
LuckyR
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Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: The Great NW
Posts: 6,274
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Quote:
Originally Posted by schmke View Post
Correct. He played on 4.0 teams in 2008 and 2009, then played on a 4.5 team in 2012 but was still a 4.0 and simply didn't get bumped up.

As to why he didn't get bumped up, I estimated him to be a 3.68 starting the year (based on his 2009 season, I think it still carried over to 2012) and moving from 3.68 to over 4.0 in just 4 matches, while possible, is pretty difficult. Couple that with playing 3 of the 4 matches with a self-rated player and a couple of those likely don't generate match ratings for him (only the self-rated player gets match ratings until he has played a few matches) so it may have really just been a couple matches that counted which would be really difficult to improve that much.

In the end, I estimate his dynamic rating at the end of 2012 was 3.90, so he improved but not enough to get bumped up.

Now, his partner in the 3 matches was rated a 4.5C at the end of the year and my estimate agrees with that, having him at 4.43.

Now, the actual skill gap between him and his partner may not be that large, but because he had a starting rating in the lower half for a 4.0, he "helped" his partner get a pretty high initial rating which in turn contributed to his rating only improving to 3.9 despite winning at 4.5.

This is one of the flaws in the system, that playing a lot of matches with the same partner keeps the rating difference between the partners more or less the same. This results in the higher rated partner getting "pushed" up when the team wins.

I agree that this is the likely explanation for what happened, and I agree with the use of the word: "flaw". Sometimes more complication, calculations and rules lead to illogical conclusions like this case.

Last edited by LuckyR : 01-22-2013 at 08:19 AM.
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