My S is a 3 star, a straight A student and is a senior. We are almost through the same process you are thinking about. He will probably make his final decision in April when the admissions decisions are mailed out. He will most probably wind up at a ranked D3 school. We have spent countless houses analyzing and thinking about this.
In be end, as someone pointed out earlier, there are many factors to consider:
School social life
Team vibe/other kids on the team
Will you be in the starting lineup?
I think the most important thing to do is to drop all your preconceived notions about colleges and tennis programs and D1/D3. Just convince your kid to have an open mind and look at all his options. After a while, the best school for your son will sort itself out.
If you want to contact me, pls pm me. I have probably looked at all the schools you will look at.
Here is the one thing you should remember: your S is only going to have lots of good choices for college. He will be in a better position than 95+% of kids applying to school. Turn the whole college selection process into a fun thing and it will work out well.