Originally Posted by FEDERERNADAL13
Alright guys, now that the first major of the year is in the books, it's time to look at all of the ranking points and see what might happen at each stage of the year! This will be a comparison between Djokovic, Federer, and Murray, because Rafa was out for 6 months last year, and as a result, would make it hard to predict how he'll fare.
First, lets look at what's set in stone (points in January):
Djokovic: 2000 points
Federer: 720 points
Djokovic has built up a healthy lead in the race on Roger, and Murray has done his best to keep it close so far.
Now, let's Look at Now to Roland Garros:
Djokovic: 4120 points (Finals at RG, Win at Miami, finals at MC and Rome are the highlights)
Federer: 4125 points (Win at IW, win at Madrid, win at Rotterdam and Dubai, semis at RG are the highlights)
Murray: 1030 points (quarters at RG is the highlight)
So, let's think about this. Fed is already behind Novak by a huge amount, and he's actually defending more points than Novak up to and including Roland Garros. So, Fed reaching #1 is not very likely around here.
I can see Novak maintaining his numbers, it would be hard to improve but he could, it all depends on how Rafa does on clay I think.
I can see Roger losing major points here, as many as 2000, because he has so many wins to defend.
I can see Murray making major gains here, mainly because he has almost zero points to defend at IW and Miami, and a win here could really cut in to the Djok-Fed lead over him. Better clay results would really help too.
Now, Let's Check out the RG-SW19 points:
Djokovic: 990 points (semis at SW19 is the highlight)
Federer: 2600 (Win at Wimby and final at Olympics are the highlights)
Murray: 1950 (win at olympics and final at Wimby are the higlights)
So, once again, Fed has more points to defend than Novak. The Olympics points will drop off, which will affect Murray and Rog more than Novak. Roger needs to win Wimbledon to not lose major points here, and the same can be said for Murray. And improvement at wimby by Novak will stretch his lead.
Djokovic: 2800 points: (USO final, Canada win, Cincy Final)
Fed: 1360 points: (Cincy win, USO quarters)
Murray: 2180 points: (USO win)
This is where Novak won #1 last year, from after Wimby to the end of the year. Novak has to play near perfectly in this stretch to keep all his points, but then again, there aren't as many available here, so even if Rog or Murray win everything Nole could still be #1 by a good margin.
Roger winning the USO would really boost his ranking, as well as playing the Roger's cup. Defending Cincy would really help as well
Murray can easily improve on his summer HC events other than USO, but he'll be hard-pressed to defend his USO.
USO-End of the year
Djokovic: 3010 points (Win in Shanghai, win at Beijing, and of course the WTF win)
Federer: 1460 points (final at WTF is the highlight)
Murray: 1090 points (finals at shanghai is the highlight)
So, once again, the end of the season is why Djokovic is currently #1 over Federer, since he has a big lead (3000ish points) on Roger. If Fed wins Shanghai, Paris, and the WTF in similar fashion to 2011, he could gain major ground. Murray too can improve his results here.
2013 could be an interesting year for the rankings. The first half of the year will be where Murray can make up a lot of ground, and then the second half of the year is where Roger could make up ground. Novak has to defend a lot, but he's up around 3000 points to start the year, so he's allowed to have a few bad tourneys.
If Roger or Andy want to be #1, they don't have that same luxury.
What do you guys see happening to the rankings in 2013?