Originally Posted by krosero
I think I have to go back to what I said in one of the earlier posts (I forget which one). If a player increases his level of play, it's hard to imagine him not cutting down on his UE's.
With the other kinds of points -- the winners and forced errors -- there's a kind of logic to arguing that the defender, by raising his level, will offset the more successfully aggressive play of his opponent. You give as good as you get.
Not saying I agree that that could happen, but I see where you're coming from.
With the UE's, though, it's different. Those are the kind of errors that have least to do with what your opponent is doing. Those are the kind that you make when your concentration breaks momentarily; or you get physically lazy or something; or you've got a relatively simple shot but because you have a slight flaw in your technique you miss it.
I think we all agree that there are different kinds of UE's, and that sometimes an error is marked down as unforced even when the player commits it after a long, exhausting rally. On those points you could say that your opponent has a lot to do with your error.
But let's leave those ambiguous points aside. I'm talking about the most basic errors in a match: the ones that are entirely due to yourself. Every match has those. No one can play a perfect match.
And if the two players have genuinely raised their level, I can't see how they would not cut down on those types of errors.
I would expect those types of errors to decrease first and foremost, when you're playing well.
Anyway, once the UE's decrease, the AM's increase.
Still can't see how increased level of play can fail to raise AM's -- though it's still an interesting question!
The scenario that I proposed seems to be logical (if the conditions outlined are fulfilled, the level of play may increase without changing the AM values of both players).
Is this scenario very realistic? I don't think so, however I do not find it completely unrealistic either.
As you have already mentioned sometimes quality rallies may end in an unforced error, although usually the number of UEs is reduced when the quality of play goes up. So the quality of play is in some way reflected by the AM's, however this relationship isn't straighforward. Actual values of the AM's are also shaped by these hypothetical situations (involving winners, forced errors and unforced errors) that I outlined in my scenario.
Perhaps the AM's are match-up sensitive? If this is the case the AM's may provide a convenient tool to compare matches played by the same opponents on the same or similar surface.