Nadal can get to 6400 ranking points by winning Vina del Mar, Sao Paolo, and Acapulco. Ferrer right now is at 6865, but 500 of those came at Acapulco. Assuming Nadal defeats Ferrer in the final, as should be the case, even if Nadal is not in great form, then Ferrer will drop down to 6565 (and if he doesn't make the final, then obviously he'll lose even more points). Then Nadal's not so far behind, although he does have more to defend during the European clay swing (do-able, especially since he can pick up significant points at Madrid) and the spring hardcourt Masters (certainly possible, but we'll need to see how he's playing). I don't think it would be all that unreasonable to see Nadal as the fourth seed at the French Open.
Last edited by tudwell; 01-28-2013 at 05:08 AM.