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Old 01-28-2013, 06:22 PM   #215
Moose Malloy
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 7,823

For each year, for Murray’s first six matches, I compared his aggressiveness with that of his opponents in two ways. To check how successful he was at hitting big shots compared to his opponents, I added up his winners and his opponents’ forced errors — mistakes they made as a result of Murray shots — and compared those with the sum of his opponents’ winners and his forced errors. Then, I compared Murray’s unforced errors with his opponents’; if he was playing more aggressively, he should also be ending more of the points he loses with his own racket than his opponents, or at least more than he used to.

The stats suggest that not much has changed. In 2011, Murray won 21.3% more points with his racket than his opponents did in his first six matches. That dipped to 20% last year, and rose to 22.5% this year — slight blips, but not a significant shift. Meanwhile, the unforced-errors stats suggest he hasn’t gotten much more willing to accept risk. In 2011, he hit 36% fewer unforced errors in his first six matches than his opponents did. Last year, that figure fell to 21.4% — Murray was losing more points with his aggression than he used to, though still fewer than his opponents did. But this year Murray has lost 34.1% fewer points to unforced errors than his opponents have, indicating he is again winning lots of points by playing less risky tennis than his opponents.
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