Originally Posted by NadalAgassi
Exactly. Of course Federer always has a chance against Djokovic at Wimbledon, until he is no longer a top 5 caliber player, in fact atleast 7 or 8 guys have a decent shot vs Djokovic on grass, which is why his win at Wimbledon 2011 was so remarkable, and why winning the Grand Slam which would have to include both his first RG and a Wimbledon title would be so amazing if he achieved. However most outside of overzealous Fed fanboys agree a repeat of the 2011 RG upset is highly unlikely to ever happen again. Federer deserved his win there and IMO it wasnt even that big an upset at the time (Djokovic had won only 2 majors, he wasnt really confirmed as the new dominant player until he won Wimbleodn). Federer is now going onwards into his 30s (he wasnt even 30 yet at the time of that match) and clay is not a surface that rewards age, and Djokovic is only growing in confidence on clay all the time. Furthermore Djokovic is 6-1 vs Federer on slow surfaces dating way back to starting in 2009 (when Federer was only 27 and Djokovic nowhere near his prime form), which indicates the 2011 RG result was a lightning in bottle kind of thing at this stage of Federer's career.
Actually Djokovic`s level on clay was considerable superior in 2011 compared to 2012. So in a way he went backwards. If Fed had beat him at RG 2012, it would be less of an upset than their 2011 encounter (Djoko was in the form of his life previous of that match). In 2012 he was pushed to 5 sets by Seppi and Tsonga (who choked that match badly) , so i fail to see how on earth is Fed hopeless against Djoko in RG. It is true that he was beaten hard in their last match at RG, but Fed had his chances so it wasn`t a one way affair. In their Rome match Fed couldn`t hit a forehand to save his *** and he pushed Nole to a tiebreak. If he is in form he has a decent shot. I give him about 30% chances of victory depending on the draw, injuries, etc. It could be more (for example if Djoko has to go trough Nadal first) or less if Fed is pushed hard in his previous matches. After all, nobody thought possible that he could beat Nadal ever again on a slow, high bouncing court and he toyed with him at IW last year.