Originally Posted by ARFED
Actually Djokovic`s level on clay was considerable superior in 2011 compared to 2012. So in a way he went backwards. If Fed had beat him at RG 2012, it would be less of an upset than their 2011 encounter (Djoko was in the form of his life previous of that match). In 2012 he was pushed to 5 sets by Seppi and Tsonga (who choked that match badly) , so i fail to see how on earth is Fed hopeless against Djoko in RG. It is true that he was beaten hard in their last match at RG, but Fed had his chances so it wasn`t a one way affair. In their Rome match Fed couldn`t hit a forehand to save his *** and he pushed Nole to a tiebreak. If he is in form he has a decent shot. I give him about 30% chances of victory depending on the draw, injuries, etc. It could be more (for example if Djoko has to go trough Nadal first) or less if Fed is pushed hard in his previous matches. After all, nobody thought possible that he could beat Nadal ever again on a slow, high bouncing court and he toyed with him at IW last year.
We will see what happens but all I can say is I totally disagree with you on 30% for Federer beating Djokovic at RG. 30% is what I would give Federer to beat Djokovic at Wimbledon or the U.S Open at this point (well a bit more than 30 at Wimbledon, and a bit less at the U.S Open). French and Australian Open would be nowhere near that at this point IMO. It would be a huge upset if Federer beats Djokovic in a slow court slam ever again.