If he gets through his first couple matches it's probable, but who knows? He might suffer a setback, or might come out rustier than expected and lose his first or second match.
But honestly, Monaco is the only guy who has a chance of beating him this week, and if Rafa does reach the final he will already have enough matches to clobber Juan.
Rafa plays Wednesday, yes? Any idea around what time? Do they have night matches at this venue?