Nadal hasn't played on HC in how long? Also a probable meeting could be in the QF, which implies that Nadal might not even have to go through a top 30 player to get to Murray. Then again, Muzza has been pretty miserable on these courts lately. It's a tossup me thinks. I'd pick Murray though, feel like Nadal might still be feeling a bit uncertain about his movement on HC.
"It was like watching Dolgopolov, except that it all made sense"- Mikhail Youzhny on Evgeny Donskoy