Originally Posted by The_Order
Fed won Madrid and made the SF at Rome.
That means he has to defend 1000 + 360 points. He currently has 8715.
If he loses straight away in both (which is highly, highly unlikely) he will drop to about 7400 points.
Nadal has 6745 points. He is defending Monte Carlo, Barcelona and Rome. In Madrid he made it to 3rd round last year. That means he'll have to win every tournament he won last year and Madrid to gain points. If he does he'll gain 900 points. So he'll have roughly 7600 points.
So mathematically, unless I'm missing something, it is possible.
But in reality, it is very unlikely to happen. Federer has to have his worst clay season and Nadal has to have his best ever.
Points from Miami haven't been substracted.
Fed loses 45 points but Nadal was defending 360 points. So it means Nadal can only get to 7300 by RG. Federer is safe before RG and will probably stay ahead of Nadal until Wimbledon.