Originally Posted by DaveKB
Clark tries to make the point with a one point match against Djokovic. If it was that then maybe, but it isn't just one point for all the marbles. He seems to think that the lesser player will win more deuce games with no ad scoring, than he would with regular scoring. I do not know how he knows that. He seem to think that the lesser player will play better than normal on the no ad point, whereas I think he will be 'choking' on the no ad point, especially if it is a tight match and he is about to pull the big upset.
No, I don't think the lesser player will play better on the no-ad point. I just think that if the better player is winning 55% of points (and most tennis matches have this kind of margin; even a 6-2, 6-2 match will see the winner with 60% of the points or less), but the lesser player is having a decent streak of 50% points to get to deuce, then the better player would like to see more points to get the percentages back to normal. I have seen many games where the lesser player fought like heck to pressure one service game of the better player, in a set where the better player has never been pushed to deuce on his serve before that game. The better player just has to split points for a while to settle things down before winning two in a row to hold off the lesser player (with normal scoring). With no-ad, there is no time to settle things down, even if you are the better player. You have to win the next point or else.
I used to see this pattern with Andy Roddick: holds serve easily, game after game, but then has that one game where his first serve percentage is low (it happens to everyone) and the rest of his game was not good enough to avoid the service break, and then there goes the whole set. Not just against Nadal, Federer, et al., but in his upset losses as well. (Happens to Isner sometimes these days, also.) Both players sense when one of those games is happening, and both feel the pressure, but Andy knew he only had to keep winning half the points in order to put himself in position to finally hit two big serves in a row and escape the game with a service hold. Put him at no-ad 40-40 in a game where his first serve percentage has plummeted, and I think he gets broken 50% of the time in those games.