2013 Race to #1

[FEDERERNADAL13]

Alright guys, now that the first major of the year is in the books, it's time to look at all of the ranking points and see what might happen at each stage of the year! This will be a comparison between Djokovic, Federer, and Murray, because Rafa was out for 6 months last year, and as a result, would make it hard to predict how he'll fare.

First, lets look at what's set in stone (points in January):

Djokovic: 2000 points

Federer: 720 points

Murray: 1450

Djokovic has built up a healthy lead in the race on Roger, and Murray has done his best to keep it close so far.

Now, let's Look at Now to Roland Garros:

Djokovic: 4120 points (Finals at RG, Win at Miami, finals at MC and Rome are the highlights)

Federer: 4125 points (Win at IW, win at Madrid, win at Rotterdam and Dubai, semis at RG are the highlights)

Murray: 1630 points (quarters at RG is the highlight)

So, let's think about this. Fed is already behind Novak by a huge amount, and he's actually defending more points than Novak up to and including Roland Garros. So, Fed reaching #1 is not very likely around here.

I can see Novak maintaining his numbers, it would be hard to improve but he could, it all depends on how Rafa does on clay I think.

I can see Roger losing major points here, as many as 2000, because he has so many wins to defend.

I can see Murray making major gains here, mainly because he has almost zero points to defend at IW and Miami, and a win here could really cut in to the Djok-Fed lead over him. Better clay results would really help too.

Now, Let's Check out the RG-SW19 points:

Djokovic: 990 points (semis at SW19 is the highlight)

Federer: 2600 (Win at Wimby and final at Olympics are the highlights)

Murray: 1950 (win at olympics and final at Wimby are the higlights)

So, once again, Fed has more points to defend than Novak. The Olympics points will drop off, which will affect Murray and Rog more than Novak. Roger needs to win Wimbledon to not lose major points here, and the same can be said for Murray. And improvement at wimby by Novak will stretch his lead.

SW19-USO

Djokovic: 2800 points: (USO final, Canada win, Cincy Final)

Fed: 1360 points: (Cincy win, USO quarters)

Murray: 2180 points: (USO win)

This is where Novak won #1 last year, from after Wimby to the end of the year. Novak has to play near perfectly in this stretch to keep all his points, but then again, there aren't as many available here, so even if Rog or Murray win everything Nole could still be #1 by a good margin.

Roger winning the USO would really boost his ranking, as well as playing the Roger's cup. Defending Cincy would really help as well

Murray can easily improve on his summer HC events other than USO, but he'll be hard-pressed to defend his USO.

USO-End of the year

Djokovic: 3010 points (Win in Shanghai, win at Beijing, and of course the WTF win)

Federer: 1460 points (final at WTF is the highlight)

Murray: 1090 points (finals at shanghai is the highlight)

So, once again, the end of the season is why Djokovic is currently #1 over Federer, since he has a big lead (3000ish points) on Roger. If Fed wins Shanghai, Paris, and the WTF in similar fashion to 2011, he could gain major ground. Murray too can improve his results here.

Conclusion:

2013 could be an interesting year for the rankings. The first half of the year will be where Murray can make up a lot of ground, and then the second half of the year is where Roger could make up ground. Novak has to defend a lot, but he's up around 3000 points to start the year, so he's allowed to have a few bad tourneys.

If Roger or Andy want to be #1, they don't have that same luxury.

What do you guys see happening to the rankings in 2013?

[tennisaddict]

I see
Djokovic
..
..
Murray
..
..
..
Federer
...
...
Nadal
..
..
..
..
Ferrer

[underground]

Basically if Fed manages to keep close to Djokovic in the rankings he has a higher chance of snatching the YE#1 than last year, just like Djokovic did in 2012.

[FEDERERNADAL13]

Originally Posted by underground

Basically if Fed manages to keep close to Djokovic in the rankings he has a higher chance of snatching the YE#1 than last year, just like Djokovic did in 2012.

But Fed has to defend a LOT before the summer hard courts, so it's pretty bleak with his schedule.

Murray can do major damage.

Rafa obviously can.

Roger's gonna have to work for #2, let alone #1 .

But, a French open and Wimbledon title would certainty help

[Terenigma]

I still see djokovic #1 at the end of the year because he's stronger than murray on clay and Federer has too much to defend to get close to him.

Murray will be 2nd due to the fact aside from his big wins, he doesnt have that many points to defend and can certainly improve on alot of them, especially IF he does well on clay.

Federer will be 3rd as he has ALOT of points to defend and i dont see him defending many of them in comparison to murray who can improve on most of his.

Nadal will retake his 4th from ferrer due to him being a beast on clay but he wont be catching the top 3 just yet.

Thats my opinion.

[FEDERERNADAL13]

Originally Posted by Terenigma

I still see djokovic #1 at the end of the year because he's stronger than murray on clay and Federer has too much to defend to get close to him.

Murray will be 2nd due to the fact aside from his big wins, he doesnt have that many points to defend and can certainly improve on alot of them, especially IF he does well on clay.

Federer will be 3rd as he has ALOT of points to defend and i dont see him defending many of them in comparison to murray who can improve on most of his.

Nadal will retake his 4th from ferrer due to him being a beast on clay but he wont be catching the top 3 just yet.

Thats my opinion.

I think this is a fair prediction. Fed may hang on to #2 and surprise us though

[jwjh]

Originally Posted by FEDERERNADAL13

I think this is a fair prediction. Fed may hang on to #2 and surprise us though

We all know Featherer loves trolling Murray like the one time in 2011 when Murray almost finished the year as no.3.

[Beryl]

Originally Posted by Terenigma

I still see djokovic #1 at the end of the year because he's stronger than murray on clay and Federer has too much to defend to get close to him.

What? Defending has nothing to do with year end #1.

Djokovic has the early lead in the race because of his AO win, but there's still 10 months of tennis to be played, so anybody on tour still has a shot at year end #1. Everyone is within 2000 points of Novak, and there's still 18500+ points on the table to be earned. If Nadal finds form relatively quickly, he can still be YE#1 as well.

Talking about YE#1 is premature, but the rankings during the year will be interesting. Djokovic is guaranteed #1 until Monte Carlo and, unless Fed wins everything and Nole doesn't play at all, will more than likely keep #1 until RG. Until then, the #2 ranking will be in play with Fed and Murray vying for it, and the #4 ranking at RG will be on the line, still in the hands of Ferrer, but Nadal eager to take it back if David has a bad stretch.

[kaku]

Indian Wells is key for Murray

[FEDERERNADAL13]

Originally Posted by Beryl

What? Defending has nothing to do with year end #1.

Djokovic has the early lead in the race because of his AO win, but there's still 10 months of tennis to be played, so anybody on tour still has a shot at year end #1. Everyone is within 2000 points of Novak, and there's still 18500+ points on the table to be earned. If Nadal finds form relatively quickly, he can still be YE#1 as well.

Talking about YE#1 is premature, but the rankings during the year will be interesting. Djokovic is guaranteed #1 until Monte Carlo and, unless Fed wins everything and Nole doesn't play at all, will more than likely keep #1 until RG. Until then, the #2 ranking will be in play with Fed and Murray vying for it, and the #4 ranking at RG will be on the line, still in the hands of Ferrer, but Nadal eager to take it back if David has a bad stretch.

It's never too early to talk about YE #1!

I agree though, the whole Murray vs Fed for #2 will shape all of the grand slams this year, especially if the draw will play as big a part of Roger's chances.

Do you guys think Fed will be seeded #1 for Wimby?

[batz]

Originally Posted by FEDERERNADAL13

It's never too early to talk about YE #1!

I agree though, the whole Murray vs Fed for #2 will shape all of the grand slams this year, especially if the draw will play as big a part of Roger's chances.

Do you guys think Fed will be seeded #1 for Wimby?

I have more chance of a threesome with Kate and Pippa.

I rarely make absolutist statements, but I think I can say with some certainty that Roger will not be seeded 1 @ SW19 - even with the grass points weightings.

[Cosmic_Colin]

Originally Posted by batz

I have more chance of a threesome with Kate and Pippa.

I rarely make absolutist statements, but I think I can say with some certainty that Roger will not be seeded 1 @ SW19 - even with the grass points weightings.

I believe the grass formula is current ranking + 100% of last year's grass points + 75% of best grass result the year before.

That means the grass points alone would be:

Djokovic: 270 (Olympic SF) + 720 (Wimbledon SF) + 1500 (Wimbledon W 2011) = 2490
Federer: 450 (Olympic F) + 2000 (Olympic W) + 150 (Halle F) + 270 (Wimbledon QF 2011) = 2870

So Federer is 380 grass points ahead. I'm not sure if the Olympics is counted, and if it isn't then he is only 200 ahead. Therefore it will make little difference to their relative rankings; Federer would need to be on the brink of overtaking Djokovic, which would mean winning Roland Garros or everything else on clay.

Just to throw in Murray's stats, he's: 750 (Olympics W) + 1200 (Wimbledon F) + 540 (Wimbledon SF 2011) = 2490 - exactly the same as Djokovic, so he stands a decent chance of being seeded #2... so long as the Olympics are counted.

[Vrad]

Originally Posted by Beryl

What? Defending has nothing to do with year end #1.

Djokovic has the early lead in the race because of his AO win, but there's still 10 months of tennis to be played.

This. Defending points is irrelevant when considering YE #1. It is only useful if you want to know who will be #1 at certain points during the year.

If you want to consider YE #1, just look at the # of points already racked up in 2013, and the tournaments left to be played, since all of 2012 points will drop off the YE ranking anyways.

[SwankPeRFection]

Nadal will fall from #4.

[RF20Lennon]

Originally Posted by SwankPeRFection

Nadal will fall from #4.

already has.

[CDNguy87]

Originally Posted by FEDERERNADAL13

Alright guys, now that the first major of the year is in the books, it's time to look at all of the ranking points and see what might happen at each stage of the year! This will be a comparison between Djokovic, Federer, and Murray, because Rafa was out for 6 months last year, and as a result, would make it hard to predict how he'll fare.

First, lets look at what's set in stone (points in January):

Djokovic: 2000 points

Federer: 720 points

Murray: 1450

Djokovic has built up a healthy lead in the race on Roger, and Murray has done his best to keep it close so far.

Now, let's Look at Now to Roland Garros:

Djokovic: 4120 points (Finals at RG, Win at Miami, finals at MC and Rome are the highlights)

Federer: 4125 points (Win at IW, win at Madrid, win at Rotterdam and Dubai, semis at RG are the highlights)

Murray: 1030 points (quarters at RG is the highlight)

So, let's think about this. Fed is already behind Novak by a huge amount, and he's actually defending more points than Novak up to and including Roland Garros. So, Fed reaching #1 is not very likely around here.

I can see Novak maintaining his numbers, it would be hard to improve but he could, it all depends on how Rafa does on clay I think.

I can see Roger losing major points here, as many as 2000, because he has so many wins to defend.

I can see Murray making major gains here, mainly because he has almost zero points to defend at IW and Miami, and a win here could really cut in to the Djok-Fed lead over him. Better clay results would really help too.

Now, Let's Check out the RG-SW19 points:

Djokovic: 990 points (semis at SW19 is the highlight)

Federer: 2600 (Win at Wimby and final at Olympics are the highlights)

Murray: 1950 (win at olympics and final at Wimby are the higlights)

So, once again, Fed has more points to defend than Novak. The Olympics points will drop off, which will affect Murray and Rog more than Novak. Roger needs to win Wimbledon to not lose major points here, and the same can be said for Murray. And improvement at wimby by Novak will stretch his lead.

SW19-USO

Djokovic: 2800 points: (USO final, Canada win, Cincy Final)

Fed: 1360 points: (Cincy win, USO quarters)

Murray: 2180 points: (USO win)

This is where Novak won #1 last year, from after Wimby to the end of the year. Novak has to play near perfectly in this stretch to keep all his points, but then again, there aren't as many available here, so even if Rog or Murray win everything Nole could still be #1 by a good margin.

Roger winning the USO would really boost his ranking, as well as playing the Roger's cup. Defending Cincy would really help as well

Murray can easily improve on his summer HC events other than USO, but he'll be hard-pressed to defend his USO.

USO-End of the year

Djokovic: 3010 points (Win in Shanghai, win at Beijing, and of course the WTF win)

Federer: 1460 points (final at WTF is the highlight)

Murray: 1090 points (finals at shanghai is the highlight)

So, once again, the end of the season is why Djokovic is currently #1 over Federer, since he has a big lead (3000ish points) on Roger. If Fed wins Shanghai, Paris, and the WTF in similar fashion to 2011, he could gain major ground. Murray too can improve his results here.

Conclusion:

2013 could be an interesting year for the rankings. The first half of the year will be where Murray can make up a lot of ground, and then the second half of the year is where Roger could make up ground. Novak has to defend a lot, but he's up around 3000 points to start the year, so he's allowed to have a few bad tourneys.

If Roger or Andy want to be #1, they don't have that same luxury.

What do you guys see happening to the rankings in 2013?

I think you omitted Murray's 600 points from making the Miami final.

[ultradr]

Federer will start to look rear view mirror, Tsonga, Berdych.

If they start beating Federer more frequently, especially 2nd half of this year,
he might drop out of top 4 this year.

[FEDERERNADAL13]

Originally Posted by CDNguy87

I think you omitted Murray's 600 points from making the Miami final.

Fixed. Thanks

[veroniquem]

It is quite satisfying to have a clear cut #1: slam holder, WTF holder, master holder. No more possible argument about "real" #1, just like it should be.

[FEDERERNADAL13]

For No.1vak to end #1, I think he needs to:

-Maintain his points, no one's gonna get 13000 points if he has them all
-Win one other big tourney or get to the finals of 2 others (e.g. Win RG or WTF, or finals at both)

For Fed to end #1, I think he needs to:

-Win 1 or more Grand slam events
-Defend at least 4 of 6 titles from last year
-Improve his results from the Summer Hard court season and season's end
-Win the WTF

For Murray to end #1, I think he'll need to:

-Defend his midseason points
-Improve his results in the clay swing and the after USO swing

As you guys can see, Fed has the toughest road to #1, by virtue of his smaller schedule and many tourney wins last year. Murray will need to improve on clay to move up, there are just too many points up for grabs there to just sit out the season. Novak just needs to keep doing what he's doing and he'll be fine.