Greatest Serves of All Time

[abmk]

Originally Posted by pc1

That's my point you can argue he is the best returner of his era and even on this point there is doubt. Best of all time is major doubt and when people write or say Agassi is definitely the best returner ever, well it may be true but frankly in this case I don't think so. For example I think Connors is superior to him but I can't prove it. I think he returned more serves and was probably every bit as good in hitting return winners. He was better defensively also that probably would allow him to steal more games when his opponent serves. It's the thing that people take it as FACT that Agassi is the greatest serve returner and it's not fact but opinion that is disturbing. And there is not strong evidence to indicate Agassi is the GOAT of service returns.

I think he is/was the best returner of his era clearly.. I'll give the stats in the next post for this. As for greatest returner of all time, that is pretty much debatable

Originally Posted by pc1

But I do wonder that if return games won % isn't the sole most important statistic here, what is? Isn't that the point of returns, ie to win the games that your opponent serves? What good is two great flashy returns that wins two points and you fail to return any other serves (which happens with Agassi at times because he's not as quick as some) when perhaps four dull returns at the feet wins the game. Isn't that the point...to win the game? The information we have now seems to indicate over a period of ten years, Chang probably was superior in winning games on his opponent's serve over Agassi. Peers often can be wrong.

the percentages are about the same . nadal isn't the greatest of returners, but breaks a fair no of times due to his ground game and because he plays quite a bit on clay and is quite dominant on it. Doesn't make him even close to the best returners of this era viz. hewitt, federer,murray,nalbandian ....

Originally Posted by pc1

I would tend to agree with you but it still is an opinion and in order to be somewhat sure you have to examine other information and perhaps statistics that may be relevant. You want to impartially examine the information and reach the conclusion. Let's face it, Roddick fans would disagree with you on that assumption.

would they really ? well , maybe I'll get the stats in some time

Originally Posted by pc1

I think you're almost certainly correct with the first sentence. As far as the second sentence is concerned, that's not important as far as what we are discussing. I'll give you the fact Federer at a young age handled Sampras' serve well.

it was an exo, wouldn't read much into it ..

Originally Posted by pc1

As far as the discussion is concerned I would tend to think Sampras was every bit as dominant as Roddick is now in the serving categories but I just wonder why the slightly (and it is slight) lower percentages. It's enough for me to think it's not a coincidence.

well, I'll probably get the stats soon

[abmk]

Here are the stats for chang vs agassi as far as returning is concerned . I checked from the atp website regarding the top 10 and top 20 players faced ..



The last row shows the percentages

I removed the david cup matches for both because I didn't the rankings for those from the atp website

as you can see from this, agassi played quite a bit more against the top 10 ( more than 3% difference ) and against the top 20 ( close to 6% difference )

Makes a huge difference ...

[pc1]

Originally Posted by abmk

Here are the stats for chang vs agassi as far as returning is concerned . I checked from the atp website regarding the top 10 and top 20 players faced ..



The last row shows the percentages

I removed the david cup matches for both because I didn't the rankings for those from the atp website

as you can see from this, agassi played quite a bit more against the top 10 ( more than 3% difference ) and against the top 20 ( close to 6% difference )

Makes a huge difference ...

Chang played far more matches and despite a percentage per match against the top ten and top twenty that is less he did play against more in the top ten and top twenty. We also don't know how good the servers were even if they weren't in the top ten or twenty. Karlovic is a better server than almost anyone and he is not in the top twenty I believe. Still not convincing to me.

Also if we consider how great Agassi was as a returner, he would have done better when he was younger and you notice Chang was still ahead of him by decent margin in the beginning years.

Whether Agassi is the best returner of his era is subject to debate. However it's pretty clear to me that it's very doubtful he's the best returner of all time and that was the premise of the article.

[abmk]

Originally Posted by pc1

Chang played far more matches and despite a percentage per match against the top ten and top twenty that is less he did play against more in the top ten and top twenty. We also don't know how good the servers were even if they weren't in the top ten or twenty. Karlovic is a better server than almost anyone and he is not in the top twenty I believe. Still not convincing to me.

well, that is one way of measuring. When the difference is that big, are the return stats really directly comparable ?

As for your doubt, one could start picking the big servers, and check match by match, and find the break % . Well you could pick and check . I might do this for sampras ....

I'd think agassi would win this too .....

when was the last time chang took on a big server on grass and handled it well like agassi did at wimbledon 92, wimbledon 95, wimbledon 99 ? umm, like never ?

Originally Posted by pc1

Also if we consider how great Agassi was as a returner, he would have done better when he was younger and you notice Chang was still ahead of him by decent margin in the beginning years.

that was because agassi was inconsistent and chang consistent

Originally Posted by pc1

Whether Agassi is the best returner of his era is subject to debate.

based on what , really ? peers ? they'd undoubtedly say agassi

as for stats , like I showed, agassi played higher ranked players more often , more than compensates for the tiny difference in return games won %

agassi played far more matches on grass than chang , I don't have chang's no of matches on carpet though ...

Originally Posted by pc1

However it's pretty clear to me that it's very doubtful he's the best returner of all time and that was the premise of the article.

certainly debatable

[abmk]

I just calculated break percentages for agassi and chang vs sampras from 91-2000

agassi vs sampras : 24 matches, 57 breaks,333 return games , return games won % = 17.117

chang vs sampras : 11 matches, 15 breaks, 144 return games, return games won %= 10.41667

( atp website doesn't have stats for their 2 grand slam cup matches )

its not even close vs sampras !

[pc1]

Originally Posted by abmk

I just calculated break percentages for agassi and chang vs sampras from 91-2000

agassi vs sampras : 24 matches, 57 breaks,333 return games , return games won % = 17.117

chang vs sampras : 11 matches, 15 breaks, 144 return games, return games won %= 10.41667

( atp website doesn't have stats for their 2 grand slam cup matches )

its not even close vs sampras !

That I believe. I've seen Chang matches against Sampras and Pete dominated. Where did you get the stats from?

[abmk]

Originally Posted by pc1

That I believe. I've seen Chang matches against Sampras and Pete dominated. Where did you get the stats from?

from the atp website

added up no of breaks and return games of each match to get the respective totals

[pmerk34]

Originally Posted by hoodjem

Here's mine:

1. Sampras
2. Ivanisevic
3. P. Gonzales
4. Roddick
5. Krajicek
6. Stich
7. Tanner
8. Newcombe
9. Tilden
10. Curren
11. Edberg
12. Federer
13. McEnroe
14. Becker
15. Dibley
16. Karlovic
17. Rusedski
18. Kramer
19. Fraser
20. Dent
21. Noah
22. Borg

Somehow you didn't manage so sneak 5'9" Laver in there

[TMF]

^
I don’t know if Karlovic should be ranked #16. He did set a record for averaging most aces per match in 2007. He hold serve at a very high percentage despite having a subpar ground game. The guy smashed a record 55 aces at RG, and then 78 at Davis Cup.

[krosero]

Originally Posted by abmk

I removed the david cup matches for both because I didn't the rankings for those from the atp website

Makes you wonder whether the stats in Lee's article included the Davis Cup matches. At the ATP when you go those matches (on the H2H pages) there are no stats available. Same with the Grand Slam Cup.

[abmk]

Originally Posted by krosero

Makes you wonder whether the stats in Lee's article included the Davis Cup matches. At the ATP when you go those matches (on the H2H pages) there are no stats available. Same with the Grand Slam Cup.

yeah , those stats are not available on the atp website

[krosero]

Originally Posted by pc1

Chang played far more matches and despite a percentage per match against the top ten and top twenty that is less he did play against more in the top ten and top twenty.

It's true that Chang played more matches against the top 10 and 20 than Agassi did. But as you say it's because he played more matches than Andre overall. I'm sure Chang also played more lower ranked players than Agassi did, if we're just talking about absolute numbers.

It's the percentage that counts here. Andre and Michael are practically in a tie in terms of how often they broke serve; but a greater portion of Andre's numbers, as compared to Chang, had to be won against top competition. If I'm reading ABMK's numbers correctly, I think that's what they show.

And in any case, Chang's edge in number of top players faced, as absolute numbers, is not even that large: 113-106 for top ten players, 169-165 for top twenty.

[krosero]

Originally Posted by abmk

I just calculated break percentages for agassi and chang vs sampras from 91-2000

agassi vs sampras : 24 matches, 57 breaks,333 return games , return games won % = 17.117

chang vs sampras : 11 matches, 15 breaks, 144 return games, return games won %= 10.41667

( atp website doesn't have stats for their 2 grand slam cup matches )

its not even close vs sampras !

And just for perspective, in those samples Sampras went 8-3 against Chang and 15-10 against Agassi (it's 25 matches between those two isn't it?)

Not sure what the win/loss would indicate, but I'm throwing it in for perspective.

[abmk]

Originally Posted by krosero

It's true that Chang played more matches against the top 10 and 20 than Agassi did. But as you say it's because he played more matches than Andre overall. I'm sure Chang also played more lower ranked players than Agassi did, if we're just talking about absolute numbers.

It's the percentage that counts here. Andre and Michael are practically in a tie in terms of how often they broke serve; but a greater portion of Andre's numbers, as compared to Chang, had to be won against top competition. If I'm reading ABMK's numbers correctly, I think that's what they show.

And in any case, Chang's edge in number of top players faced, as absolute numbers, is not even that large: 113-106 for top ten players, 169-165 for top twenty.

bingo !

10 chars

[pc1]

Originally Posted by abmk

bingo !

10 chars

True. You definitely have a point but my point is I still am not sure because we don't know how strong the lesser player's serves were. The natural assumption is to think that the top ten or twenty would have the better service stats however. So it's very possible it looks better for Agassi but to me there is some doubt.

[abmk]

Originally Posted by krosero

And just for perspective, in those samples Sampras went 8-3 against Chang and 15-10 against Agassi (it's 25 matches between those two isn't it?)

Not sure what the win/loss would indicate, but I'm throwing it in for perspective.

oops, I missed one match , stuttgart 96

agassi vs sampras ( 91-2000 ) : 25 matches, 60 breaks, 342 matches, 17.543%

[pc1]

Delete. Accidentally late double post.

[pc1]

Originally Posted by krosero

Makes you wonder whether the stats in Lee's article included the Davis Cup matches. At the ATP when you go those matches (on the H2H pages) there are no stats available. Same with the Grand Slam Cup.

I don't believe the Davis Cup Stats were included.

[hoodjem]

Originally Posted by TMF

^
I don’t know if Karlovic should be ranked #16. He did set a record for averaging most aces per match in 2007. He hold serve at a very high percentage despite having a subpar ground game. The guy smashed a record 55 aces at RG, and then 78 at Davis Cup.

True that.

I rearranged the list right after watching Karlovic have a pretty mediocre match against a sub-par Nadal at the 2010 AO. His "huge serve" didn't seem that much of a positive. Perhaps that one poor showing colored his demotion too much.

[Datacipher]

Originally Posted by pc1

True. You definitely have a point but my point is I still am not sure because we don't know how strong the lesser player's serves were. The natural assumption is to think that the top ten or twenty would have the better service stats however. So it's very possible it looks better for Agassi but to me there is some doubt.

I was going to point this out. I'm not sure the gross measure of serve games won is much of a measure of return at this level, but, when you compound that even further by correlating serve ability with ranking....I think the validity flies right out the window.