2012 Roland Garros: Performance and Rankings Implications for the Top Four

[FlashFlare11]

Hey everyone!

I just wanted to start a thread where we could look at the potential rankings of the top 4 and beyond after Roland Garros, and if we may see any drastic changes. I'll do the top four here.

Grand Slam points distribution:
Champion - 2000
Finalist - 1200
Semifinalist - 720
Quarterfinalist - 360
4th Round Exit - 180
3rd Round Exit - 90
2nd Round Exit - 45
1st Round Exit - 10

Top 4 Current Points:
1. Novak Djokovic - 11,800
2. Rafael Nadal - 10,060
3. Roger Federer - 9,790
4. Andy Murray - 7,500

Defending Positions and Points at RG:
1. Novak Djokovic (Semifinalist) - 720
2. Rafael Nadal (Champion) - 2,000
3. Roger Federer (Finalist) - 1,200
4. Andy Murray (Semifinalist) - 720

Points with RG 2011 Points Dropped and Corresponding Ranking: The final point totals here are what I will base all of my calculations upon. Any additions or subtractions indicated in parentheses below indicates an operation being performed on these totals.
1(1). Novak Djokovic - 11,800 - 720 = 11,080
2(3). Rafael Nadal - 10,060 - 2000 = 8,060
3.(2) Roger Federer - 9,790 - 1,200 = 8,590
4(4). Andy Murray - 7,500 - 720 = 6,780

Novak Djokovic
Let's start with Djokovic, who is defending 720 points. First, I'll subtract his RG points from last year, but give everyone else 2,000 points:
Djokovic - 11,080 (+/-0)
Nadal - 10,060 (+2000)
Federer - 10,590 (+2000)
Murray - 8,780 (+2000)
What we can see from this is that Djokovic's ranking is safe, regardless of what happens over the next fortnight. He doesn't have to play, Nadal or Federer could be champions, and it wouldn't matter. Djokovic remains No. 1.

Rafael Nadal
Next is Nadal. He is defending 2,000 points. Barring any upsets and presuming the top 4 all make at least the semifinals, the points will look like this:
Djokovic - 11,800 (+720)
Nadal - 8,780 (+720)
Federer - 9,310 (+720)
Murray - 7,500 (+720)

As we see there, Nadal making and falling in a semifinals with the other members of the top 4 would result in him falling to No. 3 and Federer rising to No. 2. Now, if Nadal makes the final and loses to Djokovic there while Federer and Murray make the semis, the points would look like this:
Djokovic - 13,080 (+2,000)
Nadal - 9,260 (+1,200)
Federer - 9,310 (+720)
Murray - 7,500 (+720)
If Federer makes at least the semifinals, Nadal must win the title to maintain his No. 2 ranking. As mentioned before, Nadal cannot overtake Djokovic no matter what happens at RG.

Now, I'll subtract Nadal's RG points while giving everyone the champion's points:
Djokovic - 13,080 (+2,000)
Nadal - 8,060 (+/-0)
Federer - 10,590 (+2,000)
Murray - 8,780 (+2,000)
Murray can overtake Nadal for the No. 3 ranking if Andy takes the title and Nadal loses before the semis. Interestingly, if my calculations are correct, if Murray takes the title with Nadal losing in the semis, they would both have 8,780 points.

Roger Federer
Federer is coming in with much to defend and not much to gain, rankings-wise. Roger is defending 1,200 points. As mentioned above, Federer can overtake Nadal if he and Nadal both make the semis and lose. If Roger makes the semis, Nadal must win the title to prevent Federer from ascending to No. 2. Subtracting Federer's points while giving everyone else the champion's points will look like this:
Djokovic - 13,080 (+2,000)
Nadal - 10,060 (+2,000)
Federer - 8,590 (+/-0)
Murray - 8,780 (+2,000)
Federer can fall below Murray if Andy takes the title in Paris and Federer loses before the quarterfinals. Federer cannot overtake Djokovic, regardless of the RG result

Andy Murray
Murray is defending 720 points at RG and has much defend when considering his current position in the rankings. Giving Murray the champion's points while subtracting everyone else's RG 2011 points yields:
Djokovic - 10,080 (+/-0)
Nadal - 8,060 (+/-0)
Federer - 8,590 (+/-0)
Murray - 8,780 (+2000)
If Federer doesn't make at least the quarterfinals and Nadal doesn't make the final, Murray winning at RG would make him No. 2. These are very unlikely scenarios and Murray will most likely maintain his No. 4 ranking after RG. However, this does not account for anyone currently ranked below him.

Overall, it seems very likely that Murray will not raise his ranking as he can only do so under extreme conditions. Djokovic will keep his No. 1 ranking regardless of anything happening at RG. From this, it appears that 2012's edition of the French Open will be a battle for No. 2, as there are a few different scenarios where Roger could ascend to No. 2, pushing Nadal to No.3. If both make the semis, Nadal must win the title to maintain his ranking.

If I made any mistakes, please let me know! And if anyone has anything to add, please do so!

[kishnabe]

Good OP......Understanding FO Rankings made easy.

It sucks that even if Federer win RG or becomes number 2.....it won't matter going into Wimbledon with the Grass Rankings System!

[FlashFlare11]

Originally Posted by kishnabe

Good OP......Understanding FO Rankings made easy.

It sucks that even if Federer win RG or becomes number 2.....it won't matter going into Wimbledon with the Grass Rankings System!

Thanks!

And yeah, I know. Regardless of what happens at RG, I think Wimbledon's seeds will most probably mirror the current rankings. I think Roger has a good chance against Novak if they end up on the same side.

[slice bh compliment]

Love this time of year. Thanks for doing all the arithmetic.

[jm1980]

Originally Posted by FlashFlare11

Thanks!

And yeah, I know. Regardless of what happens at RG, I think Wimbledon's seeds will most probably mirror the current rankings. I think Roger has a good chance against Novak if they end up on the same side.

What makes you think he'll even get to Novak in Wimbledon, since he lost at the QFs for two years straight?

[FlashFlare11]

Originally Posted by slice bh compliment

Love this time of year. Thanks for doing all the arithmetic.

No problem!

Originally Posted by jm1980

What makes you think he'll even get to Novak in Wimbledon, since he lost at the QFs for two years straight?

What makes you think Djokovic will get there? Federer's only lost to one kind of player those two years; big hitters. If he avoids them in his draw, he has a great shot at getting to the semis. Djokovic is far from being the best grass courter in the world. But, saying this to you, someone who thinks Federer has no shot at beating anyone, is pointless.

[Rock Strongo]

Just hypothetical, how far would Brian Baker climb if he pulled of the tennis miracle of the century and won the FO?

[Warmaster]

Originally Posted by Rock Strongo

Just hypothetical, how far would Brian Baker climb if he pulled of the tennis miracle of the century and won the FO?

#13 I think.

[Rock Strongo]

Originally Posted by Warmaster

#13 I think.

Wow... My brain actually can't think up a picture of that...

[Kurte954]

Why isn't there a clapping smiley??? Great post!

[ThoughtCrime]

Thanks for this, quite a historic and interesting RG this year. However, as Rock Strongo said, it is clear that Brian Baker will win the French by winning each match in 5 sets.

[Ledigs]

I don't think Nadal gives a **** about rankings. He just wants more titles

Originally Posted by Kurte954

Why isn't there a clapping smiley??? Great post!

[FlashFlare11]

Just wanted to update this:

Now that Federer has made the semifinals, Nadal must win the tournament to keep his No. 2 ranking.

[jm1980]

Originally Posted by FlashFlare11

Just wanted to update this:

Now that Federer has made the semifinals, Nadal must win the tournament to keep his No. 2 ranking.

This isn't too relevant since Wimby will probably still seed Nadal #2.

[FlashFlare11]

Originally Posted by jm1980

This isn't too relevant since Wimby will probably still seed Nadal #2.

Probably, but if Federer's ultimate goal is the No. 1 ranking, then this is a big step forward, especially that he's not defending much at Wimbledon and Nadal is defending finalist points there.

[Tony48]

Why would they seed Nadal 2nd at Wimbledon? He has outperformed Fed on grass for the last 2 years.

[FlashFlare11]

Originally Posted by Tony48

Why would they seed Nadal 2nd at Wimbledon? He has outperformed Fed on grass for the last 2 years.

He would be seeded behind Djokovic, not Federer.