Who will end the year as number 1?

[Sentinel]

Nole is ahead by 1005 points in the race.
http://live-tennis.eu/race

Roger has to win 1005 points to level, and then more than whatever Nole wins.

So looks like Nole will be #1. With Roger talking about being tired and wounded, don't see him going on a tear.

I hope Djokovic gets it since I think he is still the best player and the true #1 right now. The slams are what matter most and while both he and Roger won only 1 slam Djokovic was clearly better in 3 of the 4:

Australian Open- Roger loses to Nadal in semis, who loses to Djokovic in final.

French Open- Djokovic beats Roger in straights in semis, and goes on to lose tough final to Nadal.

Wimbledon- Roger beats Djokovic in semis and wins title.

U.S Open- Roger loses to Berdych in quarters. Djokovic loses 5 setter to Murray in final.

So if it is indeed Djokovic which it seems most people are thinking, it would be the fitting result IMO. Although if Roger gets it by winning the WTF, which it seems likely he will have to in order to get it (and even then wont guarantee it) I wont begrudge him it either.

[Prisoner of Birth]

I find it surprising that Federer's leading this poll.

[Ripster]

Originally Posted by Prisoner of Birth

I find it surprising that Federer's leading this poll.

When is Federer not leading a poll on TW.

[Prisoner of Birth]

Originally Posted by Ripster

When is Federer not leading a poll on TW.

Most Federer fans on the forum acknowledge that Djokovic is more likely to finish YE #1. I'm not sure where those votes are coming from.

[Steve Dykstra]

Originally Posted by Prisoner of Birth

I find it surprising that Federer's leading this poll.

Me too. I am a Federer fan but think it is unlikely he can make up the 1000 points. The only reason he had so many more points than Djokovic is because Djokovic already had #1 wrapped up and was worn down. I think he will take #1 this year.

[tennis_pro]

Originally Posted by Nostradamus

Murray is already #1 in most sports critics poll.

Name one..

[mib]

Originally Posted by Steve Dykstra

Me too. I am a Federer fan but think it is unlikely he can make up the 1000 points. The only reason he had so many more points than Djokovic is because Djokovic already had #1 wrapped up and was worn down. I think he will take #1 this year.

Depends on Federer's form. He is better then Djokovic indoors, so it is not out of the question.

[The Bawss]

Fed is not going to play basel-paris-WTF back to back. This means he will not end the year at #1.

[mib]

Originally Posted by The Bawss

Fed is not going to play basel-paris-WTF back to back. This means he will not end the year at #1.

If he wins Shanghai, WTF, Basel and skips Paris, he may still hold to his number one ranking depending on how Djokovic does.

[Dark Magician]

Originally Posted by mib

If he wins Shanghai, WTF, Basel and skips Paris, he may still hold to his number one ranking depending on how Djokovic does.

I will answer this for you exactly how senti did, paris and basel are like warm - ups for WTF not shanghai (its too far from WTF), so he may lose a step in WTF by avoiding paris!

[RF20Lennon]

Originally Posted by Prisoner of Birth

Most Federer fans on the forum acknowledge that Djokovic is more likely to finish YE #1. I'm not sure where those votes are coming from.

They do but they would still vote for federer lol

[RF20Lennon]

Originally Posted by NadalAgassi

I hope Djokovic gets it since I think he is still the best player and the true #1 right now. The slams are what matter most and while both he and Roger won only 1 slam Djokovic was clearly better in 3 of the 4:

Australian Open- Roger loses to Nadal in semis, who loses to Djokovic in final.

French Open- Djokovic beats Roger in straights in semis, and goes on to lose tough final to Nadal.

Wimbledon- Roger beats Djokovic in semis and wins title.

U.S Open- Roger loses to Berdych in quarters. Djokovic loses 5 setter to Murray in final.

So if it is indeed Djokovic which it seems most people are thinking, it would be the fitting result IMO. Although if Roger gets it by winning the WTF, which it seems likely he will have to in order to get it (and even then wont guarantee it) I wont begrudge him it either.

NO!! see Djokovic won Aussie, Miami and Rogers Cup. Federer won Wimby Indian wells, Madrid (clay) Rotterdam, Dubai, and Cincy beating Djokovic 6-0 7-6 and a Silver medal!!! Hes won on all surfaces this year and has an olympic medal therefore I think he deserves it more

[mib]

Originally Posted by Dark Magician

I will answer this for you exactly how senti did, paris and basel are like warm - ups for WTF not shanghai (its too far from WTF), so he may lose a step in WTF by avoiding paris!

Well, it is actually quite possible that he would skip Shanghai and play three in a row. Either way, there is a realistic chance for him to keep the rating if he performs well and Djokovic falls short.

Originally Posted by RF20Lennon

NO!! see Djokovic won Aussie, Miami and Rogers Cup. Federer won Wimby Indian wells, Madrid (clay) Rotterdam, Dubai, and Cincy beating Djokovic 6-0 7-6 and a Silver medal!!! Hes won on all surfaces this year and has an olympic medal therefore I think he deserves it more

Lets break it down by surface:

Clay- Federer won Madrid, but Djokovic reached the Roland Garros finals and the finals of both Monte Carlo and Rome. I would give Djokovic the edge overall, RG final is already worth atleast equal to a Masters title, and he did better at 3 of the 4 major events (yes a DNP counts as doing worse in an even bigger way btw, as you relegate yourself to 0 points).

Hard Courts- Djokovic with 1 slam, another slam final, and both have 2 Masters. No contest Djokovic. A couple more minor sub Master level event titles would not compensate the difference of 1 slam and 1 other slam final vs 1 slam semi and 1 slam quarter.

Grass- No contest Federer.

So breaking it down that way as well Djokovic is slightly ahead at this point. The Race points back this up too, there is a reason Djokovic is about 1000 points ahead. If Federer wins the WTF he will probably end the year end #1 anyway, and probably deserve it in that case as well.

[Feather]

Originally Posted by The Bawss

Fed is not going to play basel-paris-WTF back to back. This means he will not end the year at #1.

I feel this describes it..

[Logan71]

I believe even with all possible permutations it's in Novak's hands.Federer can only defend points where Novak can gain.

Federer is one of the greatest indoor players ever so if he's up for it he can hang onto the lead he has.

Novak still has quetions over him about performing for an entre season.However if he had won Wimbledon or the USopen he probably would have tailed off at this stage and played second fiddle.
After a season that promised much after Australia he has gone on to miss all of his mid season goals.Now he's motivated and probaly not as physically spent as last season.

Federer has complained of feeling wounded very surprising considering what he has manged to win the last 12 months.I think he was too hard on himself for losing at Flushing Meadows.

It comes down to the events they both pick and the mindset of the 2.
Who wants it most.

[merlinpinpin]

Originally Posted by Logan71

It comes down to the events they both pick and the mindset of the 2.
Who wants it most.

Not exactly. At this stage, I feel that Federer wants it much more than Djokovic, no question.

However, he is 1,000 points behind, and likely to be 1,500 points behind next week with Djokovic playing Beijing vs no real threat. And this is definitely *huge* ground to cover in just three (or four) tournaments, none of which is a slam.

At the moment, the crowded schedule of the Olympic year seems to advantage Djokovic big time (the 1,000 points he was able to add to his tally by basically being the only one to play in Canada being the extend of his current lead), but there is still a lot of tennis to be played, so let's see how this pans out.

Edit: Also, who gets Murray in his part of the draw in Shanghai could very well be a big factor (if not the deciding one), the Brit being arguably the favourite to win the whole thing.

[Zarfot Z]

60% chance Djokovic gets YE #1
40% chance Federer gets YE #1

Trying to be optimistic here, but Fed isn't gonna go perform as well as he did in last year's end of season run.

[tennis_pro]

Originally Posted by Zarfot Z

60% chance Djokovic gets YE #1
40% chance Federer gets YE #1

Trying to be optimistic here, but Fed isn't gonna go perform as well as he did in last year's end of season run.

I'd say 75-25 to Djokovic now.

If Fed wins Shanghai (or reaches the final but with Djokovic losing in the SF or earlier) I'd give it a 60-40 to Djokovic.

1000 points is huge at this stage of year, there are only 4-5 tournaments to be played which means that Federer at 31 has to gain at least 1000 more points than a 25-year old Djokovic in those remaining events. It's a big ask but Fed has an outside chance if he GOATs again.