Who will end the year as number 1?

[The-Champ]

Does Murray have a chance to be no.1 if he wins all the remaining tournaments he participates in?

[veroniquem]

Originally Posted by The-Champ

Does Murray have a chance to be no.1 if he wins all the remaining tournaments he participates in?

Yes, he does. Murray is about 2200 points behind Fed in the race rankings. Shanghai, Paris, Tokyo and WTF are worth about 4000 points altogether. So, sure, he has a shot especially if Fed does badly. ETA: oops I forgot to add that he's 3200 points behind Djoko though (in the race), so Fed AND Djoko would have to do horrible for Murray to take #1 from both of them, which is why Murray's chance is slim overall.

[tennis_pro]

Originally Posted by veroniquem

Yes, he does. Murray is about 2200 points behind Fed in the race rankings. Shanghai, Paris, Tokyo and WTF are worth about 4000 points altogether. So, sure, he has a shot especially if Fed does badly.

You do know that there's also a guy named Djokovic who has a 3.000 point lead on Murray?

Originally Posted by The-Champ

Does Murray have a chance to be no.1 if he wins all the remaining tournaments he participates in?

To answer the question: Murray would have to win everything in sight and hope that both Djokovic and Federer break a leg.

If he does well at the tail end of 2012 he'll have a shot at no 1 after the AO, though when Djok has 2000 points to defend.

[Evan77]

Originally Posted by veroniquem

I'm gonna assume you meant Beijing there? Because Djoko has never won Shanghai. I know Djoko was injured last year, still, in Paris he did well once and that's it. All other times (6 to be precise) that Djoko participated in the event, he didn't even make the semi. He's also reached WTF final only once in 5 participations vs Fed who reached the final almost every single time he's played it. So I don't think it's a given AT ALL Djoko will manage to snatch #1. Personally, I totally hope you're right because I firmly believe that whoever does best in slams should finish the year as #1, that it just seems "fair" that it should be this way. But this year is tight and it it's undeniable Fed has a non negligible chance to pull it off.

ya man, I meant Beijing of course (I was going to talk about Shanghai later so I just brain farted ). now, you are right about WTF and Paris to some degree. Djokovic did manage to win both events but he never really performed that well at the end of the season except in 2009 when he won Beijing, Basel and Paris and played SF in Shangai. I guess we'll have to wait and see.

All I'm saying is that Roger's path to year end #1 seems to be much more difficult.

[veroniquem]

Originally Posted by tennis_pro

You do know that there's also a guy named Djokovic who has a 3.000 point lead on Murray?



.

Yes, of course. I amended my post.

[tennis_pro]

Originally Posted by veroniquem

Yes, of course. I amended my post.

I thought you was being ignorant (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GKPZCrSf0Iw#t=3m2s), cheers.

[Hood_Man]

I think Murray's scheduled to play Shanghai (1,000), Paris (1,000), Basel (500) and the WTF (1,500 if unbeaten in RR), for a potential maximum of 4,000 points.

If he wins Tokyo that puts him on 7,230 race points, so if he won all 4 tournaments above as well, he'd be on 11,230 points.

Assuming Djokovic wins Beijing for a race total of 10,410, that would be a lead over Djokovic of 820 points at the end of the year, assuming Djokovic wins nothing at all for the rest of the season.

However, Novak could achieve those 820 points with a semifinal in Shanghai (360 points), a quarterfinal in Paris (180), and two wins at the WTF (400), for a total of 940 points, and a year end total of 11,350.

Numerically it's possible, but I'd say it's unlikely. I've not even bothered working out Fed's chances (he should be good for a few finals and semi's at least during the indoor season).



...I think anyway, I'm prone to mistakes

[veroniquem]

Actually, it's funny because I think the #1 is a total 2 horse race right now (Fed/Djoko) but I also think that ultimately, it's what Murray does that may determine which 1 of the 2 ends up #1. Indeed, if Murray won everything, at this point, I don't think it would be enough to catch #1 that quickly (Fed and Djoko are not gonna lose every match till year end) but what it would do is prevent Fed from defending his points and what that would do in turn is probably give the year end #1 to Djoko. So, Djoko fans should actually cheer for Murray and Fed fans should cheer against him

[tennis_pro]

Originally Posted by veroniquem

Actually, it's funny because I think the #1 is a total 2 horse race right now (Fed/Djoko) but I also think that ultimately, it's what Murray does that may determine which 1 of the 2 ends up #1. Indeed, if Murray won everything, at this point, I don't think it would be enough to catch #1 that quickly (Fed and Djoko are not gonna lose every match till year end) but what it would do is prevent Fed from defending his points and what that would do in turn is probably give the year end #1 to Djoko. So, Djoko fans should actually cheer for Murray and Fed fans should cheer against him

It depends.

If Murray and Djokovic get drawn together in one half I will be rooting for Murray to beat Novak (but then lose to Federer in the final). Even if Murray won the title taking Djokovic in the semis and then Fed in the finals, Fed will gain points on Djokovic.

[veroniquem]

Originally Posted by tennis_pro

It depends.

If Murray and Djokovic get drawn together in one half I will be rooting for Murray to beat Novak (but then lose to Federer in the final). Even if Murray won the title taking Djokovic in the semis and then Fed in the finals, Fed will gain points on Djokovic.

But not necessarily enough to make up the 1000 points that separate him from Djoko right now in the race. (which may become 1500 points after this week). + one would expect Murray won't fall in Djoko's side for all remaining events of the year although given the weird draw occurences over the past few seasons, I wouldn't bet on it either

[batz]

Sexi now > 1500 points behind Noel after not playing this week. That's a big hill to climb.

[merlinpinpin]

Originally Posted by batz

Sexi now > 1500 points behind Noel after not playing this week. That's a big hill to climb.

That was in the cards, with the weak field in Beijing.

Getting Murray in his half in Shanghai sure won't help him, though. Murray beating djokovic in the Shanghai semi was almost mandatory to 'compensate' for Beijing, and now it won't happen. Fed's odds sure have gotten worse over the last couple of days...

[Romismak]

Nole is clear favorite, it is in his hands and i think he will do it. He is 1500 points ahead of Roger in race and they will play now the same tournies - Shanghai, Basel, Paris, WTF - 4000 points left and Roger needs at those events 1500+ vs Nole - that´s big task under circumstances:

1. Roger is older-played much more matches at this time this season than he is used to - he won´t be as fresh for indoor season like 2010-2011 when he finished strong both years

2.Nole is here at good form- ready to not only fight, but to win those events - last year we know his end of year was horrible

3. both are 2 highest seeded so Roger doesn´t have the opportunity to stop Nole himself before F - so basically even if Roger will play his best and win all 4 touranments, Nole can be finalist at all events and will earn points

4. thanks to ,,great,, scheduling BAsel-Paris-WTF 3 weeks in row, no way anybody - including Roger or Nole is going to win 15 matches in row there i don´t believe it, most likely Roger will skip or tank Paris- WTF is just most important and BAsel is BAsel he won´t skip it - so i think 1000 points - or most of them is lost there for Roger...

Under all those circumstances i mentioned Nole is big favorite to end YE No.1 and i think he will end year No.1 and it won´t be as close as people think, maybe 1000 point differential maybe more for Nole i believe.

[RogerFan1991]

From now on, if Federer defeats Djokovic in Shanghai, Paris and London finals, plus Federer wins in Basel: Fededer - 12920 pts
Djokovic - 12610 pts

Federer said today in a press conference that he is looking to end as number 1, otherways he wouldnt be playing Shanghai, so supossing he wins both shanghai and basel, with djokovic making final in shanghai, i think he is gonna play paris, he knows better than anyone that dismissing 1000 pts from there means to lose number 1 one at the season's final week, and that would be pretty painful.

[batz]

Originally Posted by RogerFan1991

From now on, if Federer defeats Djokovic in Shanghai, Paris and London finals, plus Federer wins in Basel: Fededer - 12920 pts
Djokovic - 12610 pts

Federer said today in a press conference that he is looking to end as number 1, otherways he wouldnt be playing Shanghai, so supossing he wins both shanghai and basel, with djokovic making final in shanghai, i think he is gonna play paris, he knows better than anyone that dismissing 1000 pts from there means to lose number 1 one at the season's final week, and that would be pretty painful.

You think Roger is going to play and win, 3 weeks back to back? Any idea how tough that is to pull off?

[RogerFan1991]

Originally Posted by batz

You think Roger is going to play and win, 3 weeks back to back? Any idea how tough that is to pull off?

Yeah, it is as difficult as last year....and Federer pulled it off, and everybody knows Roger loves indoor tennis, he's best indoor player today, and far better than djokovic, so why not think about it?

[RogerFan1991]

Anyways im not saying federer needs to win all 4 tournaments, i really dont djokovic will reach every final of those 4, maybe not even 1, who knows.

[cc0509]

Originally Posted by batz

You think Roger is going to play and win, 3 weeks back to back? Any idea how tough that is to pull off?

It will definitely be tough to pull off but with Roger you never know especially since it is the indoor season where he is supreme. Why do you think he is in godforsaken Shanghai to begin with at this point in his career? I guess that means he wants to try and do what he can. Personally I doubt he will be able to do it, but, never say never.

[Romismak]

Originally Posted by RogerFan1991

Yeah, it is as difficult as last year....and Federer pulled it off, and everybody knows Roger loves indoor tennis, he's best indoor player today, and far better than djokovic, so why not think about it?

Last year it wasn´t 3 weeks in row - there was week off between Paris and WTF like always used to be, since this season there is no week between Paris 1000 and WTF

He is not far better than Nole indoors, yes he is better indoor player, but not far better , he is far better indoor player than Nadal for example

This season Roger played alredy too many matches + said himself he is tired before DC, + he is again 1 year older than he was last indoor season

Last thing - most important one - competition at indoor season will be much tougher, last year Roger´s biggest competition indoors was Tsonga, Nole burned out-after injury, Rafa - burned out - plus he sucks indoors, than Murray - mediocre and injured-WTF

This year there will be better Murray + much much better Djokovic

With all those things i mentioned i am 100% confident Roger has no chance to win all 3 indoor events

[RogerFan1991]

Originally Posted by Romismak

Last year it wasn´t 3 weeks in row - there was week off between Paris and WTF like always used to be, since this season there is no week between Paris 1000 and WTF

He is not far better than Nole indoors, yes he is better indoor player, but not far better , he is far better indoor player than Nadal for example

This season Roger played alredy too many matches + said himself he is tired before DC, + he is again 1 year older than he was last indoor season

Last thing - most important one - competition at indoor season will be much tougher, last year Roger´s biggest competition indoors was Tsonga, Nole burned out-after injury, Rafa - burned out - plus he sucks indoors, than Murray - mediocre and injured-WTF

This year there will be better Murray + much much better Djokovic

With all those things i mentioned i am 100% confident Roger has no chance to win all 3 indoor events

First, Federer has played just 7 more matches than last year as of this date; second, Federer may not be so tired physicaly, because he hasnt played in 3 weeks, he lost early in the US Open, where he just played 4 matches, and all of those were short, he won cincinnati with an acumulated of 6 hours, loosing no sets, all pretty fast matches, and he didnt play toronto. He may yes be tired mentally, but that goes for djokovic too, and in fact, who may yes be much more tired is Djokovic, who played this week, reched us open final, where he had to play 5 sets, he played consecutively olympics, toronto and cicninnati.....so im gonna leave this by your judgment.

And one more thing, im sure federer feels more uncomfortable playing tsonga than djokovic in indoors, believe me. So dont think this year there's better competition, maybe different competion.

I mean, dont just be so confident because you may receive a big and swiss surprise in the end.