How many more Slams do you think Nadal will win?

Originally Posted by cc0509

Six years? That is too long imo. It is true that the current crop of young players seem lacking in talent but there will be somebody who will come in and step up to beat the top four for sure by six years from now! The top four won't be playing in six years from now, they will all be retired! There will be a junior or two who will come in by that time and step up or one of the guys now who is "ify" such as Raonic may be step up or even Tomic if he can ever get his head together.

Who knows how long it will last, but I expect it will be another 3 or 4 years atleast. Raonic and Tomic are 1 slam calibre players at best IMO. The rest of their age group arent even worth talking about. Maybe the generation after that will hold more promise but people I have talked to arent impressed with the current juniors either. The next really good generation will come at some point but they arent on the near horizon of arriving either.

The lack of any decent up and coming talent has been a trend for a number of years now. Donald Young was the youngest player in the top 100 and had never lost to a player younger than him only a couple years ago. Donald freaking Young!

[cc0509]

Originally Posted by NadalAgassi

Federer is probably winning more slams as well. He said he would play until 2016 and with the super field these days he will probably win atleast 2 more, considering there is nobody outside the current top 4 who can win a slam for another 6 years or so probably, the exact same reasons my predictions for all of Djokovic, Nadal, and Murray were so high too, since mugs of the worthless up and coming generation like Raonic and Tomic arent winning squat all except 1 fluke slam amongst them all if lucky. As usual your attempted point is no point.

He said he may play another 2-5 years most recently. But do you think he really knows how much longer he will play? It will depend on many things in the next few years. For example, his results, whether he is injured, his family, etc. etc.
Personally, I do not think Federer will play until 2016, not even close.

[Steve0904]

Originally Posted by NadalAgassi

Federer is probably winning more slams as well. He said he would play until 2016 and with the super field these days he will probably win atleast 2 more, considering there is nobody outside the current top 4 who can win a slam for another 6 years or so probably, the exact same reasons my predictions for all of Djokovic, Nadal, and Murray were so high too, since mugs of the worthless up and coming generation like Raonic and Tomic arent winning squat all except 1 fluke slam amongst them all if lucky. As usual your attempted point is no point.

Oh Towser has a point, you just don't want to admit it. As it is, 6 years is way too long to project. Long term predictions, especially ones of years rarely work out in tennis. Who thought Djokovic would have the 2011 he did? Who thought Nadal would have a 2010 like he did after all that went on before that?Who thought Federer would return to #1?

[cc0509]

Originally Posted by NadalAgassi

Who knows how long it will last, but I expect it will be another 3 or 4 years atleast. Raonic and Tomic are 1 slam calibre players at best IMO. The rest of their age group arent even worth talking about. Maybe the generation after that will hold more promise but people I have talked to arent impressed with the current juniors either. The next really good generation will come at some point but they arent on the near horizon of arriving either.

For Federer, I think he has another year or two max. Nadal I think will have another two good years. Djokovic and Murray, who are at the peak of their powers probably have another three good years. But this is only if all of the above are not injured or some other circumstance takes place, i.e. they lose motivation, etc.

I agree that the young guys who are in the top 100 now do not look promising but you never know what is going to happen. Raonic looks the best to me out of a bad lot. He has the most motivation and best attitude imo. Tomic has talent but he seems like he is a head case. We will see if they can get it together or not. There will be a kid or two with some real talent who will eventually come along in the next few years, they always do.

[cc0509]

Originally Posted by Steve0904

Oh Towser has a point, you just don't want to admit it. As it is, 6 years is way too long to project. Long term predictions, especially ones of years rarely work out in tennis. Who thought Djokovic would have the 2011 he did? Who thought Nadal would have a 2010 like he did after all that went on before that?Who thought Federer would return to #1?

I agree 100%. Six years is way too long to project in tennis and you never know what will happen. Somebody could be injured or a top guy like Djokovic may lose motivation, etc. etc.

Long term predictions are actually much easier to make than short term, especialy general ones. 5 years ago if one said Federer will have 17 slams 5 years from now (he had 12 at the time), Nadal would have 11 (he had 3 at the time), Djokovic will have 5 (he had 0 at the time but was clearly on the rise and the main upcoming threat to Federer and Nadal) most would have thought those were quite reasonable. All the surprising year to year and the timing of how it all played out wouldnt really matter to the overall scheme of how it turned out. At that point there didnt seem to be much in the way of up and comers but you have thought they would be here by now and if not already starting to win big, be ready to shortly after 2012, but as it turns out that is the not the case either.

As for how long everyone will play I think that will largely be how long they all think they can win, apart from their bodies breaking down so badly they cant play. Djokovic, Murray, or Nadal wont retire before 30 if they are still winning slams, not a chance. Nadal's body "might" break down before he is 31, but I wouldnt be so sure on the other two.

[Towser83]

Originally Posted by NadalAgassi

Federer is probably winning more slams as well. He said he would play until 2016 and with the super field these days he will probably win atleast 2 more, considering there is nobody outside the current top 4 who can win a slam for another 6 years or so probably, the exact same reasons my predictions for all of Djokovic, Nadal, and Murray were so high too, since mugs of the worthless up and coming generation like Raonic and Tomic arent winning squat all except 1 fluke slam amongst them all if lucky. As usual your attempted point is no point.

I thought you idn't think Federer would win more than 1 more slam at most. I stand corrected.

Originally Posted by Towser83

I thought you idn't think Federer would win more than 1 more slam at most. I stand corrected.

I probably made that prediction about a year ago but he surprised me with his play this year. I also thought the mens version of Generation Suck would have made more progress than they are now. They are now mostly around 22 or 23, that is the age each year they make scant or no progress makes them becoming champions more unlikely. I know there are late bloomers, but they arent even in the top 10 yet.

When I see people having Nadal + Djokovic + Murray + Federer all winning a combined 8 slams or less in the future between them all I think to myself WTF who is going to win all those other slams. I know some new people will have to emerge at some point, but even so I just cant see that group amongst all of them winning anywhere near so little.

[Towser83]

Originally Posted by NadalAgassi

I probably made that prediction about a year ago but he surprised me with his play this year. I also thought the mens version of Generation Suck would have made more progress than they are now. They are now mostly around 22 or 23, that is the age each year they make scant or no progress makes them becoming champions more unlikely. I know there are late bloomers, but they arent even in the top 10 yet.

When I see people having Nadal + Djokovic + Murray + Federer all winning a combined 8 slams or less in the future between them all I think to myself WTF who is going to win all those other slams. I know some new people will have to emerge at some point, but even so I just cant see that group amongst all of them winning anywhere near so little.

Well I mean even as a Federer fan I'm not sure he has that many slams left in him. These days someone like Berdych can take him out for instance. I'd like to think he will win another slam, I think there is some chance for 2 more, if he won more than 2 I'd be a bit surprised to be honest because I expect Djokovic, Nadal and even Murray to be just a bit too good over the next few years, plus the odd loss like Berdych. I think Fed's best chances will be Wimbledon and the US Open and he has been patchy at both recently and I think he has a maximum of 2 years to win further slams. Then there's always the chance of a sudden drop in form.

He'll probably be top 4 for ages, but if the other 3 guys are a bit stronger then that stillmeans he might struggle to win a slam. Hope he can though.

Originally Posted by Towser83

Well I mean even as a Federer fan I'm not sure he has that many slams left in him. These days someone like Berdych can take him out for instance. I'd like to think he will win another slam, I think there is some chance for 2 more, if he won more than 2 I'd be a bit surprised to be honest because I expect Djokovic, Nadal and even Murray to be just a bit too good over the next few years, plus the odd loss like Berdych. I think Fed's best chances will be Wimbledon and the US Open and he has been patchy at both recently and I think he has a maximum of 2 years to win further slams. Then there's always the chance of a sudden drop in form.

He'll probably be top 4 for ages, but if the other 3 guys are a bit stronger then that stillmeans he might struggle to win a slam. Hope he can though.

Well we probably have alot of differing opinions exactly how the slams will be divided amongst the current top 4. I dont think anyone believes Federer has the most "future" slams of the quartet, some probably have him winning 0, and some probably have him winning 2 or 3 more, we will have to see. All I am pretty sure of is that 4 between them will win alot more than 8 future slams, regardless how they are distributed amongst them.

[Towser83]

Originally Posted by NadalAgassi

Well we probably have alot of differing opinions exactly how the slams will be divided amongst the current top 4. I dont think anyone believes Federer has the most "future" slams of the quartet, some probably have him winning 0, and some probably have him winning 2 or 3 more, we will have to see. All I am pretty sure of is that 4 between them will win alot more than 8 future slams, regardless how they are distributed amongst them.

Really the biggest threat to Nadal, Djokovic and Murray is that they grind themselves into oblivion and some terrible new guys win slams randomly WTA style, just because those 3 guys are too physically wrecked to compete anymore. If that doesn't happen then they will have several years to pick up more slams, that is true. I did think certain new players would have shown more by now but it's not been the case and say in the case of Djokovic, I saw him and thought he would be a slam winner and future world number one as far back as 2006. Don't get this feeling of a future slam winner with any new player since del potro. I thought Cilic would also win a slam but that hasn't come close to happening.

[MichaelNadal]

Originally Posted by Towser83

Really the biggest threat to Nadal, Djokovic and Murray is that they grind themselves into oblivion and some terrible new guys win slams randomly WTA style, just because those 3 guys are too physically wrecked to compete anymore. If that doesn't happen then they will have several years to pick up more slams, that is true. I did think certain new players would have shown more by now but it's not been the case and say in the case of Djokovic, I saw him and thought he would be a slam winner and future world number one as far back as 2006. Don't get this feeling of a future slam winner with any new player since del potro. I thought Cilic would also win a slam but that hasn't come close to happening.

I definitely agree, the pipeline looks empty and the gap is way too big.

[Towser83]

Originally Posted by MichaelNadal

I definitely agree, the pipeline looks empty and the gap is way too big.

I know. Though I still think sometime in the future Djokovic and Murray (maybe not nadal) will all find it hard to get the motivation to win and some surpising winner will come about. It won't be that often though. But given that Djokovic almost lost to tsonga in RG, Murray has had some close calls, Nadal lost to Rosol at Wimbledon. If it all happened at the same slam, or 2 got upset and one beat the other, then we could have a one off winner like a johanson.But like I said, it probably won't happen that much.

[Steve0904]

Originally Posted by NadalAgassi

Long term predictions are actually much easier to make than short term, especialy general ones. 5 years ago if one said Federer will have 17 slams 5 years from now (he had 12 at the time), Nadal would have 11 (he had 3 at the time), Djokovic will have 5 (he had 0 at the time but was clearly on the rise and the main upcoming threat to Federer and Nadal) most would have thought those were quite reasonable. All the surprising year to year and the timing of how it all played out wouldnt really matter to the overall scheme of how it turned out. At that point there didnt seem to be much in the way of up and comers but you have thought they would be here by now and if not already starting to win big, be ready to shortly after 2012, but as it turns out that is the not the case either.

As for how long everyone will play I think that will largely be how long they all think they can win, apart from their bodies breaking down so badly they cant play. Djokovic, Murray, or Nadal wont retire before 30 if they are still winning slams, not a chance. Nadal's body "might" break down before he is 31, but I wouldnt be so sure on the other two.

In regards to your first paragraph, I'm not so sure. I can understand the Federer prediction because he was still dominating in 2007, although at that point people were predicting more than 17 slams at this point for Federer, but if you told me Nadal would have 11 slams now that would've surprised me a bit. I would've given him all the RG titles he has, and 1 Wimbledon, not neccessarily 2. In 2007 I would not have said Nadal would win in Australia, and certainly not at the USO, so I would've given him 8, 9 at most with a second Wimbledon. I'm also not sure I would've predicted Djokovic to have 5 slams at this point, in 2007. He looked destined to be in the long shadows of Federer, and especially Nadal forever. He wasn't winning RG or Wimbledon at the time, and he lost 3 years in a row to Federer at the USO which leaves only the Aussie. At the very least, nobody in their right mind would've predicted Novak's 2011. All I'm saying is 6 years is way too long to say the guys at the top now will still be winning slams IMO.

Anybody can make an easy prediction. I could say that I think Nadal is going to win at least 1 more RG, and there's a high probability I'll be right. That's like the Federer prediction. If you told me in 2007 that the guy was going to have 17 slams by this point, I probably would've laughed, and said only 17?