Fed ranking implications

[falstaff78]

Fed fans. Solving purely for Roger's ranking would you prefer to see Andy or Novak win the Aussie '13 title?

If Novak wins he's almost 3000 ahead, and Roger has loads to defend before the clay season - so number one is basically gone for the foreseeable future. On the other hand Andy ends up almost 1800 behind and number two is under less threat.

If Andy wins he's breathing down Roger's neck but Novak is less far away.

I'm tempted to pick the conservative option and say let Novak win.

Thoughts?

[norbac]

Would be weird if Murray won on Sunday and, whilst holding two Slams remained number three. Djokovic would be be holding no Slams as a number one......

[FlashFlare11]

I'd rather he go after No. 1 since he's this close already. There's no telling if he'll ever come so close again. For Federer, if his rank isn't 1, then it doesn't matter what his ranking is. I'd rather see Murray win the final anyway. So, to answer your question, I'd prefer Roger to go after the top ranking.

[falstaff78]

Originally Posted by norbac

Would be weird if Murray won on Sunday and, whilst holding two Slams remained number three. Djokovic would be be holding no Slams as a number one......

haha off topic (in 3d post of my own thread) but if Murray wins, at what point do you think the British media would first mention the Murray Slam...4th round of RG?

[falstaff78]

Originally Posted by FlashFlare11

I'd rather he go after No. 1 since he's this close already. There's no telling if he'll ever come so close again. For Federer, if his rank isn't 1, then it doesn't matter what his ranking is. I'd rather see Murray win the final anyway. So, to answer your question, I'd prefer Roger to go after the top ranking.

Theoretically at number 2 he has a chance of getting an (Andy&Novak)-free path to tournament finals right? Surely there's something to be said for that eventuality, however frequently or not it actually materializes...

[Prisoner of Birth]

Federer doesn't need the #1 ranking anymore. And it's extremely tough for him to get it now, anyway. I'd say the #2 ranking is good enough so he can be seeded #2 for the French Open and Wimbledon and hopefully get Ferrer drawn in his half of the draw at the French Open or at Wimbledon. Slams are all that matter right now.

[SQA333]

He will get Nadal in his quarter at RG so why does it matter?

[norbac]

Originally Posted by falstaff78

haha off topic (in 3d post of my own thread) but if Murray wins, at what point do you think the British media would first mention the Murray Slam...4th round of RG?

Would probably be a story heading into RG.

On topic, I think Roger really only cares about the Slam nowadays. The rankings will sort themselves out. He made a big push last year for number one and credit to him for achieving it, but I just can't see it happening again. Especially with the reduced schedule.

[FlashFlare11]

Originally Posted by falstaff78

Theoretically at number 2 he has a chance of getting an (Andy&Novak)-free path to tournament finals right? Surely there's something to be said for that eventuality, however frequently or not it actually materializes...

True, but it could be argued that he doesn't necessarily need a Djokovic/Murray free path to win a tournament. Roger's got a lot of work ahead of him, regardless. Is he playing Dubai this year?

[falstaff78]

Originally Posted by Prisoner of Birth

Federer doesn't need the #1 ranking anymore. And it's extremely tough for him to get it now, anyway. I'd say the #2 ranking is good enough so he can be seeded #2 for the French Open and Wimbledon and hopefully get Ferrer drawn in his half of the draw at the French Open or at Wimbledon. Slams are all that matter right now.

Don't forget non-trivial chance of Rafa floating around in tournie draws as the QF-of-death. That strengthens case for number 2 eh?

Although PoB, I'm inclined to disagree with you about the slams are all point. I think smart scheduling is all important, hence the culling this year. but dont you think the post USO 2011 run helped him build the confidence to take out Murray and Nole at Wimbledon last year?

[falstaff78]

Originally Posted by FlashFlare11

True, but it could be argued that he doesn't necessarily need a Djokovic/Murray free path to win a tournament. Roger's got a lot of work ahead of him, regardless. Is he playing Dubai this year?

Yup. And RotterdaM & IW before clay but not Miami.

Agreed he doesn't NEED a Nole-Murray free path, but it would help right? That would have been the difference between a SF and F appearance here....

[Prisoner of Birth]

Originally Posted by falstaff78

Don't forget non-trivial chance of Rafa floating around in tournie draws as the QF-of-death. That strengthens case for number 2 eh?

Although PoB, I'm inclined to disagree with you about the slams are all point. I think smart scheduling is all important, hence the culling this year. but dont you think the post USO 2011 run helped him build the confidence to take out Murray and Nole at Wimbledon last year?

There's nothing he can do about Nadal now. He just has to stay in the top 2 so he can have a chance of avoiding Murray. Once Nadal returns to the top 4, any ranking from 2 to 4 is the same.

And no, I don't think his late-2011 run helped him much at Wimbledon. I mean, yeah, the run gave him confidence, the points he had gave him extra motivation to win it and get to #1, and everything else, but I think he'd be just as motivated anyway. Federer isn't a confidence player IMO. He's arrogant, he knows he's the GOAT, why would he need any more confidence?

[FlashFlare11]

Originally Posted by falstaff78

Yup. And RotterdaM & IW before clay but not Miami.

Agreed he doesn't NEED a Nole-Murray free path, but it would help right? That would have been the difference between a SF and F appearance here....

TThat's good. He's not defending much in Miami but I guess he could take a WC if he wanted some extra points. IW is the big one he needs to defend/have a good result in.

I still think that Federer can take Murray, especially on clay. It's more Djokovic that he should avoid, and even then, he's entirely capable of beating him also. This match was close and the draw played a major role in the outcome, but it was very close. On another night, Roger could have won.

[Jeffrey573639]

Originally Posted by FlashFlare11

TThat's good. He's not defending much in Miami but I guess he could take a WC if he wanted some extra points. IW is the big one he needs to defend/have a good result in.

I still think that Federer can take Murray, especially on clay. It's more Djokovic that he should avoid, and even then, he's entirely capable of beating him also. This match was close and the draw played a major role in the outcome, but it was very close. On another night, Roger could have won.

I'd still take Fed over Muzza on clay
Fed over Djoker is a bit trickier- not sure if last years was an abberation (he did play pretty terribly the whole FO) or the norm now

[vandre]

Originally Posted by norbac

Would be weird if Murray won on Sunday and, whilst holding two Slams remained number three. Djokovic would be be holding no Slams as a number one......

that kind of thing has been happening in the wta for years now

[vive le beau jeu !]

Originally Posted by norbac

Would be weird if Murray won on Sunday and, whilst holding two Slams remained number three. Djokovic would be be holding no Slams as a number one......

2 slams and #3 (did it already happen since 1973 ?)... it would be a bit as if the rankings themselves had a soul and just couldn't like the muzzette !

but hopefully the djoker will help avoiding such a weird situation...





EDIT
ok, no big deal... it already happened !

wilander, summer 1988 (he was even #4 just before RG 1989 !)
becker, spring 1990
connors, spring 1983
and maybe vilas 1977/1978 too ? weekly ranking is missing on the ATP website for these old times...

[ultradr]

I would say Federer might be at about #3-4 at the end of this year.

He has about 2000 points to defend by march and he might lose #2 ranking by then. If tsonga and berdych start to beat him more consistently he might go down to #5-6.

[hedera]

I would've wanted Andy to win in the final anyway but if does win, Nole will lose 800 points. That would keep Roger closer to No.1!

Roger has Indian Wells and Madrid (of the bigger tournaments) to defend but Nole has Miami and the MC, Rome and RG final.

It would be be good for Roger if he played Monte Carlo and Miami but I guess he knows best.

[jones101]

Originally Posted by ultradr

I would say Federer might be at about #3-4 at the end of this year.

He has about 2000 points to defend by march and he might lose #2 ranking by then. If tsonga and berdych start to beat him more consistently he might go down to #5-6.

Lol cute....

[NadalAgassi]

It is moot, he will likely be down to #3 soon enough, probably even before Wimbledon. The real ranking question is how far Nadal's ranking will fall before he returns (if he even does).