2013 Race to #1

[veroniquem]

Nobody cares about Rafa/Fed anymore. They would want to get a Rafa/Djoko but that's assuming Rafa gets back to his best level and that the draws are not random, which they're supposed to be. In 2011 and 1st half of 2012, most finals were Nadal/Djoko ones.

[steenkash]

Originally Posted by veroniquem

Nobody cares about Rafa/Fed anymore. They would want to get a Rafa/Djoko but that's assuming Rafa gets back to his best level and that the draws are not random, which they're supposed to be. In 2011 and 1st half of 2012, most finals were Nadal/Djoko ones.

Rafa-Novak matches are one of the only 6 hour tennis matches I am prepared to watch.

[Cosmic_Colin]

Originally Posted by batz

I have more chance of a threesome with Kate and Pippa.

I rarely make absolutist statements, but I think I can say with some certainty that Roger will not be seeded 1 @ SW19 - even with the grass points weightings.

I believe the grass formula is current ranking + 100% of last year's grass points + 75% of best grass result the year before.

That means the grass points alone would be:

Djokovic: 270 (Olympic SF) + 720 (Wimbledon SF) + 1500 (Wimbledon W 2011) = 2490
Federer: 450 (Olympic F) + 2000 (Olympic W) + 150 (Halle F) + 270 (Wimbledon QF 2011) = 2870

So Federer is 380 grass points ahead. I'm not sure if the Olympics is counted, and if it isn't then he is only 200 ahead. Therefore it will make little difference to their relative rankings; Federer would need to be on the brink of overtaking Djokovic, which would mean winning Roland Garros or everything else on clay.

Just to throw in Murray's stats, he's: 750 (Olympics W) + 1200 (Wimbledon F) + 540 (Wimbledon SF 2011) = 2490 - exactly the same as Djokovic, so he stands a decent chance of being seeded #2... so long as the Olympics are counted.

[Warmaster]

Originally Posted by Cosmic_Colin

I believe the grass formula is current ranking + 100% of last year's grass points + 75% of best grass result the year before.

That means the grass points alone would be:

Djokovic: 270 (Olympic SF) + 720 (Wimbledon SF) + 1500 (Wimbledon W 2011) = 2490
Federer: 450 (Olympic F) + 2000 (Olympic W) + 150 (Halle F) + 270 (Wimbledon QF 2011) = 2870

So Federer is 380 grass points ahead. I'm not sure if the Olympics is counted, and if it isn't then he is only 200 ahead. Therefore it will make little difference to their relative rankings; Federer would need to be on the brink of overtaking Djokovic, which would mean winning Roland Garros or everything else on clay.

Just to throw in Murray's stats, he's: 750 (Olympics W) + 1200 (Wimbledon F) + 540 (Wimbledon SF 2011) = 2490 - exactly the same as Djokovic, so he stands a decent chance of being seeded #2... so long as the Olympics are counted.

Imagine Murray being #2 just before Wimbledon, 100 points ahead of Federer. What will they do?

[egn]

Murray has a good chance I feel this year, hoping to see him make a push for number 1. He deserves it.

[forzamilan90]

F*** it, Federer to end the year at #1

[CDNguy87]

If Rafa comes back strong, the race to #1 could be very interesting. However, if Rafa is weak, Djokovic in all likelihood wins most clay events, as he was unbeaten on red clay last year vs. everyone except Nadal. When combined with his consistency on hard courts (and complete dominance over slow outdoor HCs), winning most of the big clay events (say 2-3 M1000s or at least 1 M1000 + RG) would almost certainly guarantee him YE #1 barring injury.

Murray really needs Rafa to come back strong and dominate the clay season in order to have any chance at YE #1. If that happens, there could be a 3-4 way split of the major events and therefore allow someone like Murray to sneak in there with a Slam win and some good M1000 results (similar to what Fed almost did last year).

Rafa missing the AO and probably having mediocore results at the start of his return for the M1000 HC events in IW/Miami pretty much rules him out for #1, as Novak will probably have a lead over him of 3,000+ points in the race by the end of March (assuming Novak wins at least one of IW/Miami and goes deep in the other). Even if Rafa dominates on clay again, Novak will still probably lead the race after RG (since he probably makes the final of most clay events, depending on how early he draws Nadal) and there's no way Nadal earns more points in the post-FO grass/hard-court season than Novak.

At this point, I don't think Fed really desires nor realistically expects himself to compete for YE #1. He would have to make the committment to smaller tourneys he made last year to even have a chance, and given his age and current schedule, he's clearly decided (correctly in my view) that he's better off just focusing his efforts on winning Slams and remaining in the Top 4.

My prediction for YE Rankings:

1) Djokovic
2) Murray
3) Nadal
4) Federer

Reverse 3 and 4 if Rafa's recovery is delayed or incomplete by the time the clay season starts.

[Skarter]

Agree with what CDNguy87 said.

If rafa doesn't take out Novak during the clay part of the season, YE1 is his.

Two clay masters + at least a RG final for Djokovic and he's chances of finishing the season on top again are at 85% IMO.

[Masayoshi]

Does anyone really care about year end #1? It's basically just an arbitrary point in time for a rankings check, no?

[Prisoner of Birth]

Originally Posted by veroniquem

Nobody cares about Rafa/Fed anymore. They would want to get a Rafa/Djoko but that's assuming Rafa gets back to his best level and that the draws are not random, which they're supposed to be. In 2011 and 1st half of 2012, most finals were Nadal/Djoko ones.

Isn't that a twisted way of saying nobody cares about Federer, period?

[ultradr]

Federer isn't exactly losing ground on clay court season against Djokovic and Murray.

It's the hard court surfaces on which he is losing against Djokovic and Murray.

The clay and grass, the green clay, two slow organic surfaces, are still Nadal
and Federer's. They are being challenged but still own the two slow surfaces.

[Prisoner of Birth]

Originally Posted by ultradr

Federer isn't exactly losing ground on clay court season against Djokovic and Murray.

It's the hard court surfaces on which he is losing against Djokovic and Murray.

The clay and grass, the green clay, two slow organic surfaces, are still Nadal
and Federer's. They are being challenged but still own the two slow surfaces.

Grass isn't slow. You're just jumping on the bandwagon because you think it makes you look cool.

[tennis_badger]

i see joker stay at no 1 comfortably, murray at no 2 followed closely by roger on no 3 and rafa no 4, i expect a tight race between murray, roger and rafa.

[FEDERERNADAL13]

Originally Posted by veroniquem

Nobody cares about Rafa/Fed anymore. They would want to get a Rafa/Djoko but that's assuming Rafa gets back to his best level and that the draws are not random, which they're supposed to be. In 2011 and 1st half of 2012, most finals were Nadal/Djoko ones.

See, I agree that people like Rafa/Djoko, but I think the people still would very much like to see Rafa/Fed matches. Just look at TTW for example, when Rafa plays Roger threads with 40,000 posts are created.

Also, people like seeing Roger vs. Novak as well, as their shotmaking as pretty nice to see.

Its not all about Rafa vs. Novak

[batz]

Originally Posted by Cosmic_Colin

I believe the grass formula is current ranking + 100% of last year's grass points + 75% of best grass result the year before.

That means the grass points alone would be:

Djokovic: 270 (Olympic SF) + 720 (Wimbledon SF) + 1500 (Wimbledon W 2011) = 2490
Federer: 450 (Olympic F) + 2000 (Olympic W) + 150 (Halle F) + 270 (Wimbledon QF 2011) = 2870

So Federer is 380 grass points ahead. I'm not sure if the Olympics is counted, and if it isn't then he is only 200 ahead. Therefore it will make little difference to their relative rankings; Federer would need to be on the brink of overtaking Djokovic, which would mean winning Roland Garros or everything else on clay.

Just to throw in Murray's stats, he's: 750 (Olympics W) + 1200 (Wimbledon F) + 540 (Wimbledon SF 2011) = 2490 - exactly the same as Djokovic, so he stands a decent chance of being seeded #2... so long as the Olympics are counted.

The thing you are missing is the 'current ranking points' part of the formula.

The formula is current ranking points (at the time of seeding) + 100% of last year's grass points + 75% of the previous year's grass points.

So while Roger might gain a few hundred points on the grass points parts of the formula, but the fact that he is 2700 points behind Novak with roughly the same points to defend before Wimbledon makes that all a bit moot.

[ultradr]

Originally Posted by Prisoner of Birth

Grass isn't slow. You're just jumping on the bandwagon because you think it makes you look cool.

I think it's slower than US Open. And in its 2nd week, it is even slower.

If Federer can do well on these organic surfaces, clay and grass (and Nadal doesn't comeback strong this year),
Federer can contend for #1 again, I think.

[Grgisme]

I think Novak will be no.1 for the entire year. But it also depends on Andy's form on hard court and clay. We'll see.

[FEDERERNADAL13]

What do you guys think Rafa will do? Get back to usual results or be some other version of Rafa?

[Grgisme]

I think he won't be the same until USO

[Cosmic_Colin]

Originally Posted by batz

The thing you are missing is the 'current ranking points' part of the formula.

The formula is current ranking points (at the time of seeding) + 100% of last year's grass points + 75% of the previous year's grass points.

So while Roger might gain a few hundred points on the grass points parts of the formula, but the fact that he is 2700 points behind Novak with roughly the same points to defend before Wimbledon makes that all a bit moot.

Sorry, I only just saw this response. I was deliberately excluding the current ranking points because we don't know what they will be. I was just working out what Federer's 'grass advantage' was.

I concluded that it was very small, so he'd need to be neck and neck, or ahead or Novak to be seeded #1... which is extremely unlikely.

So we're probably looking at 1)Djokovic 2)Federer 3)Murray as the top seeds, possibly swapping Federer and Murray as the latter has more opportunity to gain points over the next few months.