Nadal at #5 can lead to an interesting Roland Garros

merwy · 01-30-2013, 08:18 PM

..and Wimbledon

This is probably going to happen since there is a 1400 points gap in between the #4 and #5 ranking. Ferrer would have to screw up pretty bad to not be ranked 4th at RG or Nadal would have to win Madrid (okay) and Indian Wells and Miami (can't imagine these two happening). And we're not even sure Nadal will win all the clay tournaments he did last year. RG is an opportunity for Nadal to lose more points so I think he won't be able to get back in the top 4 by Wimbledon either.

I can't remember the last time we had the "real" top 4 competing while not being seeded 1-4. Think of all the possibilities. If we're unlucky with the draws (wouldn't be the first time) Nadal gets put in the same quarter as Ferrer and nothing special happens. But! What would happen if Nadal and Djokovic met in the quarters? They would finish each other off and give the other semi-finalist a good chance of winning, giving someone like Federer a possible shot at the title. I know Djokovic doesn't get tired but even he would have to feel something after going through Nadal on clay. But wait.. What if Nadal goes in Federer's quarter. Would be pretty bad news for Federer but still it would be the most awesome and most viewed quarterfinal ever.

How do you feel about this?

tudwell · 01-30-2013, 08:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by merwy

I can't remember the last time we had the "real" top 4 competing while not being seeded 1-4.

Murray was seeded 5th at the 2010 Australian Open and met Nadal in the quarterfinals. Soderling was seeded 4th.

Agassifan · 01-30-2013, 08:25 PM

Rafa has a 50% chance of drawing either Federer or Ferrer - Guys who he can beat on clay without much trouble. If this was a hard court slam, he'd be in deep trouble.

abmk · 01-30-2013, 08:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tudwell

Murray was seeded 5th at the 2010 Australian Open and met Nadal in the quarterfinals. Soderling was seeded 4th.

no, Delpo was the #4 seed @ the AO in 2010, soderling was seeded #8.

considering that delpo had considerably more success at the slams than murray in 2009, that's hardly a surprise ...

merwy · 01-30-2013, 08:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Agassifan

Rafa has a 50% chance of drawing either Federer or Ferrer - Guys who he can beat on clay without much trouble. If this was a hard court slam, he'd be in deep trouble.

Can't imagine him losing to Murray. Or they might as well turn all the courts into slow hard courts since it clearly doesn't matter. One thing is that we're not sure how good Nadal at RG will be. I expect him to be as good as last year but you never know. The lack of matches might actually show. Anyway if Federer gets lucky with the draws, which he won't, he will get to play against "not Nadal" in the quarters and Ferrer in the semis and get a pretty easy road to the finals, which he will probably lose to Djokovic or Nadal after leading the first set 5-0 40-0 and still losing it. You can't deny that there are some interesting possibilities when it comes to the draws.

vandre · 01-30-2013, 08:40 PM

do we know for sure he's even playing indian wells and miami this year? if i were him there's no way i'd go back and forth between clay and hc a month or 2 before the euro clay season starts after being on the shelf for 6 months. if it were my call, i'd say forget iw and miami and stick to the clay.

you're also forgetting about the tournaments he's adding that he didn't play at last year. no where near the same tier as iw & miami but he should be able to pickup a few cheap and easy points there (not much compared to a decent result at either of the u.s. events though).

i don't think it matters a bit wherever rafa is seeded at the french. shoot, he could be a qualifier and still be a lock to go home with the trophy. he won't have may points to defend at wimbledon, so if he's healthy, he should make up some points there.

01-30-2013, 08:42 PM

When it comes to Roland Garros it means nothing unless Nadal draws Djokovic it really means nothing except for whoever of Federer, Ferrer, or Murray draws Nadal in the quarters and is a certain loser and out of the event. Nadal vs Djokovic could go either way at this point probably though, and could take something out of the winner as well. If Nadal feels fit enough to play, and played well enough to be in the quarters, no way he is losing to any of Federer, Ferrer, or Murray at Roland Garros.

Wimbledon is more intriguing. Nobody knows how a Nadal-Federer, Nadal-Murray, or Nadal-Djokovic match on grass would go at this point. Nadal would just be replacing Ferrer (likely out in the 3rd round or so) as the top 4 seed there if he winds up in his quarter.

tudwell · 01-30-2013, 09:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by abmk

no, Delpo was the #4 seed @ the AO in 2010, soderling was seeded #8.

considering that delpo had considerably more success at the slams than murray in 2009, that's hardly a surprise ...

Oops, my bad. I thought Soderling broke into the top four at some point.

norbac · 01-30-2013, 09:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tudwell

Oops, my bad. I thought Soderling broke into the top four at some point.

He did, after winning the Paris Masters in 2010.

joeri888 · 01-30-2013, 10:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Agassifan

Rafa has a 50% chance of drawing either Federer or Ferrer - Guys who he can beat on clay without much trouble. If this was a hard court slam, he'd be in deep trouble.

Nadal beats Federer easy on grass too?

Cosmic_Colin · 01-30-2013, 10:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by merwy

..and Wimbledon

This is probably going to happen since there is a 1400 points gap in between the #4 and #5 ranking. Ferrer would have to screw up pretty bad to not be ranked 4th at RG or Nadal would have to win Madrid (okay) and Indian Wells and Miami (can't imagine these two happening). And we're not even sure Nadal will win all the clay tournaments he did last year. RG is an opportunity for Nadal to lose more points so I think he won't be able to get back in the top 4 by Wimbledon either.

I can't remember the last time we had the "real" top 4 competing while not being seeded 1-4. Think of all the possibilities. If we're unlucky with the draws (wouldn't be the first time) Nadal gets put in the same quarter as Ferrer and nothing special happens. But! What would happen if Nadal and Djokovic met in the quarters? They would finish each other off and give the other semi-finalist a good chance of winning, giving someone like Federer a possible shot at the title. I know Djokovic doesn't get tired but even he would have to feel something after going through Nadal on clay. But wait.. What if Nadal goes in Federer's quarter. Would be pretty bad news for Federer but still it would be the most awesome and most viewed quarterfinal ever.

How do you feel about this?

Yes, I said basically the same thing last week: http://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/showthread.php?t=451962

stringertom · 01-30-2013, 11:28 PM

A log of speculation about nothing...let's see how he gets through the Golden Swing before we start contemplating any tactical scheduling moves he makes regarding the twin MS1000's in the US. If he flies through the clay in the Americas, he will have the "seeding motivation" to play both IW and Miami so he has a chance at the top 4 before RG. First things first...play some competitive matches on the friendliest surface to his ailing joint. After that, let's get it on if all is well!

DeShaun · 01-31-2013, 02:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by stringertom

A log of speculation about nothing...let's see how he gets through the Golden Swing before we start contemplating any tactical scheduling moves he makes regarding the twin MS1000's in the US. If he flies through the clay in the Americas, he will have the "seeding motivation" to play both IW and Miami so he has a chance at the top 4 before RG. First things first...play some competitive matches on the friendliest surface to his ailing joint. After that, let's get it on if all is well!

Rafa seeing any RG draw as something to be tiptoed through with help from a better seed for himself (than had he not played/done well in say IW or Miami) is kind of hard for me to imagine. I suppose he always approaches RG convinced that if he is ready to go, then nobody's stopping him no matter Rafa's seed.

FedError · 01-31-2013, 02:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tudwell

Oops, my bad. I thought Soderling broke into the top four at some point.

Soderling was actually seeded 4th for the 2011 AO but ended up getting Murray in his quarter anyway.

Rocky89 · 01-31-2013, 02:32 AM

We'll just have to wait and see how he performs during the Golden Swing first, mind you in the recent videos of him training he looks very uncomfortable when playing and even trips when sliding.

I don't have high expectations for him during the clay swings this year, I have a feeling if his knees and performance don't improve by RG then he has a good chance in losing to Djokovic, Murray, Federer and even Ferrer in the quarters.

Fiji · 01-31-2013, 02:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by merwy

he will get to play against "not Nadal" in the quarters and Ferrer in the semis and get a pretty easy road to the finals, .

This will actually end up being Djokovic's draw at RG. If you have been following the draws since the USO, Djokovic has been getting cake draws since then. ITF wants him to win as many slams as possible. Now that Federer breaking the slam record is old news, they figure someone going for the new slam record, Djokovic, will bring interest back into the sport. So he ends up getting clown draws at the slams. This will be trend from now on. Djokovic gets the easiest draw possible. He will always draw Ferrer.

Chanwan · 01-31-2013, 04:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rocky89

We'll just have to wait and see how he performs during the Golden Swing first, mind you in the recent videos of him training he looks very uncomfortable when playing and even trips when sliding.

I don't have high expectations for him during the clay swings this year, I have a feeling if his knees and performance don't improve by RG then he has a good chance in losing to Djokovic, Murray, Federer and even Ferrer in the quarters.

3,5 months! And another week. That's the time between now and RG. Nadal will likely play 6-7 clay tournaments before than and possibly IW and Miami too. He has PLENTY of time to get in shape, even if it truly is the case that he isn't now (which I expect he is). So please people - stop worrying. Rafa will be fine and - safe for whichever Nole he comes across - be the king of clay yet again.

tudwell · 01-31-2013, 04:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by norbac

He did, after winning the Paris Masters in 2010.

Ah, right. It was the 2011 Australian Open I was thinking of. So even more recently! Although, it didn't really matter since Murray and Soderling were drawn in the same quarter.

jm1980 · 01-31-2013, 08:43 AM

It'll be more interesting if Nadal gets Soderling'd or Rosol'd before the QF.

It would be a very interesting tournament from then on. Maybe we'd even see the old man try harder.

kishnabe · 01-31-2013, 08:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Agassifan

Rafa has a 50% chance of drawing either Federer or Ferrer - Guys who he can beat on clay without much trouble. If this was a hard court slam, he'd be in deep trouble.

Federer pushed Rafa to 4 sets on clay numerous times. Ferrer gave Nadal headaches in bof3 clay matches.

I don't think would be easy either way especially for a guy who been away for 7 months and still has knees problems.

01-30-2013, 08:18 PM	#1
merwy Hall Of Fame Join Date: Nov 2011 Location: Netherlands Posts: 1,673	Nadal at #5 can lead to an interesting Roland Garros ..and Wimbledon This is probably going to happen since there is a 1400 points gap in between the #4 and #5 ranking. Ferrer would have to screw up pretty bad to not be ranked 4th at RG or Nadal would have to win Madrid (okay) and Indian Wells and Miami (can't imagine these two happening). And we're not even sure Nadal will win all the clay tournaments he did last year. RG is an opportunity for Nadal to lose more points so I think he won't be able to get back in the top 4 by Wimbledon either. I can't remember the last time we had the "real" top 4 competing while not being seeded 1-4. Think of all the possibilities. If we're unlucky with the draws (wouldn't be the first time) Nadal gets put in the same quarter as Ferrer and nothing special happens. But! What would happen if Nadal and Djokovic met in the quarters? They would finish each other off and give the other semi-finalist a good chance of winning, giving someone like Federer a possible shot at the title. I know Djokovic doesn't get tired but even he would have to feel something after going through Nadal on clay. But wait.. What if Nadal goes in Federer's quarter. Would be pretty bad news for Federer but still it would be the most awesome and most viewed quarterfinal ever. How do you feel about this? Last edited by merwy : 01-30-2013 at 08:22 PM.

01-30-2013, 08:25 PM	#3
Agassifan Hall Of Fame Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 2,208	Rafa has a 50% chance of drawing either Federer or Ferrer - Guys who he can beat on clay without much trouble. If this was a hard court slam, he'd be in deep trouble. __________________ "Will Nadal's moment of truth come at RolandGarros2013, judging from his clay-court performances at Vina del Mar 2013?" - 6-1 6-3 6-0.

01-30-2013, 08:40 PM	#6
vandre Professional Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: no man's land Posts: 1,454	do we know for sure he's even playing indian wells and miami this year? if i were him there's no way i'd go back and forth between clay and hc a month or 2 before the euro clay season starts after being on the shelf for 6 months. if it were my call, i'd say forget iw and miami and stick to the clay. you're also forgetting about the tournaments he's adding that he didn't play at last year. no where near the same tier as iw & miami but he should be able to pickup a few cheap and easy points there (not much compared to a decent result at either of the u.s. events though). i don't think it matters a bit wherever rafa is seeded at the french. shoot, he could be a qualifier and still be a lock to go home with the trophy. he won't have may points to defend at wimbledon, so if he's healthy, he should make up some points there. __________________ 2hbh Club Member #58 "The Donald" of club tennis!

01-30-2013, 11:28 PM	#12
stringertom Legend Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 5,168	A log of speculation about nothing...let's see how he gets through the Golden Swing before we start contemplating any tactical scheduling moves he makes regarding the twin MS1000's in the US. If he flies through the clay in the Americas, he will have the "seeding motivation" to play both IW and Miami so he has a chance at the top 4 before RG. First things first...play some competitive matches on the friendliest surface to his ailing joint. After that, let's get it on if all is well! __________________ "I am easily satisfied by the very best." Sir Winston Churchill; ALLEZ ROGI!

01-31-2013, 08:43 AM	#19
jm1980 Professional Join Date: Jun 2011 Location: Jesusland Posts: 930	It'll be more interesting if Nadal gets Soderling'd or Rosol'd before the QF. It would be a very interesting tournament from then on. Maybe we'd even see the old man try harder. __________________ [ Djokovic \| Murray \| Wozniacki ]