The fall of World No 1

[chiru]

Originally Posted by Stchamps

I don't think Roger has many points at all to defend on clay, so he could easily gain points this season.

well, he made the finals of monte carlo, won hamburg, and the finals at rolland garros. maybe thats just me, but I'm pretty sure thats the second greatest no. of clay court points of anyone on tour. I think you're counting in "wat if he does super well at estoril, and in rome" where he doesn't have many points to defend. well i still think thats a big if because he still needs to defend 1 major final and 1 masters final and a masters win, thats a huge no. of points. but im a little lazy in doing the exact math. could he gain points? absolutely. Do I see him losing more than he gains, IMO probably.

[NovakWannabe]

Originally Posted by Vector

If anyone is becoming #1 this year, it will be the joker.

Yes my friend, indeed...

[DashaandSafin]

Do you people even think before you post? Or you post garbage to increase your post count? Roger has HUGE amounts of points to defend on clay, Nadal has even more. Only joker has points to gain so Fed and Nadal MUST BE in tip top condition for the season to come.

[Nadal_Freak]

Nadal will be the number 1 player after the US Open.

[miniRafa386]

my prediction (ATP only)

1) Nadal
2) Federer
3) Djoko
4) Roddick
5) Nalbandian
6) Gasquet
7) Blake
8 ) Tsonga

[welcome2petrkordaland]

at year's end for '08:

1. nadal
2. federer
3. djokovic
4. murray
5. roddick
6. nalbandian
7. tsonga
8. blake

[zagor]

So you both think that Davydenko will get out of the top 8? Especially with the points he gained in Miami? I can't believe how much the guy is underrated here.

[welcome2petrkordaland]

zagor, you're totally right. just after i posted that prediction, i realized i had left davy out. i like the guy and think he's underrated for sure, and more talented than his horrible record against top 10 players indicates. still, he needs to improve this record and reach his talent. davydenko in all honestly plays so much that he effectively works the system and distorts the true top 5 top 10 rankings. i respect his willingness to play so much but resent how he screws up the pecking order. i just want him to rise to the occasion more in big matches. as a matter of fact, he should do well on the dirt and possibly get to a final or two. so yeah, he stays in top 10 and prob. top 8.

having said that, yeah, you're right. davydenko stays in the top 10, i'll say at #7, with blake dropping to like 9 or 10.

[vndesu]

Originally Posted by mrDamien

Clay season is coming. Nadal could easily chase the 800 pts ahead of Fed.

yeah but you still got djoko comming up.
you cant just say nadal is gonna be #1 bc yeah clay is comming but he hasnt won to many tournaments yet.

[Lotto]

This thread is a joke isn't it? Was it posted on April Fools day because if it was you got me good. Federer will be the No.1 ranked player in the world at the end of 2008. Nuff' said.

After doing the calculations:

Federer - 6700 points
Nadal - 6080(If he wins Miami), 5930(If he loses in final)

So, if Nadal wins it there'll be a 620 point difference and if he loses there'll be a 770 point difference so if you're a fed fan you'll be rooting Davydenko tommorow, well you'll be for him anyway if you're a fed fan.

[welcome2petrkordaland]

Originally Posted by Lotto

This thread is a joke isn't it? Was it posted on April Fools day because if it was you got me good. Federer will be the No.1 ranked player in the world at the end of 2008. Nuff' said.

Nice buzz, Lotto. and that's the way to support your arguments with evidence.

But don't panic, this is just an off year for Fed. he'll eventually bite the bullet, get a coach, and make a comeback after losing the #1 ranking to either Nadal or Djokovic at the end of this year. He'll still break Sampras' record but he won't be #1 at the time, not to suggest he won't earn the #1 ranking again after temporarily losing it at the end of this year.

[sureshs]

The fall of the 1-handed backhand has finally happened.

[fastdunn]

world of tennis revolves around slams. it's too early to call 'the fall of world #1'. if federer loses at early rounds of french open, the fall might happen.

[johnny ballgame]

Originally Posted by bluescreen

no, in fact clay season is the last place nadal could obtain the #1 ranking. most of nadal's points come on clay, so he cant gain any more points since he's won every tournament he plays on clay (minus hamburg, but he got to the final there). if nadal slips up even once, he's due for a world of hurt and it'll give fed a chance to further the gap between him and nadal...

Not entirely true. Nadal CAN (and likely will) gain on Fed during clay season. Remember, Fed has a HUGE pile of points to defend in clay season as well. I don't see Fed reaching Monte Carlo final, winning Hamburg, or reaching Roland Garros final.

[johnny ballgame]

Originally Posted by Stchamps

I don't think Roger has many points at all to defend on clay, so he could easily gain points this season.

Eh? Check the '07 results.

[superman1]

Yes, Fed has his work cut out for him, and Nadal is looking pretty good, so we'll see. If Fed could manage to win the French, he'd be pretty well off for the rest of the year. This might be his last shot. Maybe years from now people will look back at this and say, "everyone wrote him off, and in doing so they took some of the pressure off of him, which was exactly what he needed going into the French Open..."

[Rob_C]

Originally Posted by welcome2petrkordaland

zagor, you're totally right. just after i posted that prediction, i realized i had left davy out. i like the guy and think he's underrated for sure, and more talented than his horrible record against top 10 players indicates. still, he needs to improve this record and reach his talent. davydenko in all honestly plays so much that he effectively works the system and distorts the true top 5 top 10 rankings. i respect his willingness to play so much but resent how he screws up the pecking order. i just want him to rise to the occasion more in big matches. as a matter of fact, he should do well on the dirt and possibly get to a final or two. so yeah, he stays in top 10 and prob. top 8.

having said that, yeah, you're right. davydenko stays in the top 10, i'll say at #7, with blake dropping to like 9 or 10.

Thats not how the rankings are calculated. The four slams, and 9 AMS tournaments are mandatory, the pts from those are on everyone's record, then you take the 5 best results outside of those, and you end up with the final point tally.

[quest01]

The Rise and Fall of Roger Federer

[fastdunn]

roger is actually stronger player on clay than people think.

[Mansewerz]

Originally Posted by mrDamien

Clay season is coming. Nadal could easily chase the 800 pts ahead of Fed.

Perhaps your forgetting that Federer can play consistently throughout the clay season and doesn't just lose first round matches.