ATP 5-set Records (five set)

[Bud]

Bumpity bump

[Bud]

Originally Posted by Shangri La

Because everybody knows how to pronounce GOAT's name, but it's not the case with lesser players.

Please don't troll around in this thread. Thanks.

[Shangri La]

Originally Posted by Bud

Please don't troll around in this thread. Thanks.

That was a genuine question. What do you think is the reason?

[Bud]

Originally Posted by Shangri La

That was a genuine question. What do you think is the reason?

I'd suggest you email the ATP and ask them!

[Shangri La]

Originally Posted by Bud

I'd suggest you email the ATP and ask them!

Email sent! Will report back if I hear anything back from ATP.

[dlk]

Simon's in good form & has decent 5 set numbers; I never knew Fed's numbers were not strong, thought he would be better than 17/14.

[Bud]

Originally Posted by dlk

Simon's in good form & has decent 5 set numbers; I never knew Fed's numbers were not strong, thought he would be better than 17/14.

The Federer/Simon match has upset all over it

If Federer doesn't win in straight sets, his chances fall hugely.

[Mustard]

Originally Posted by Bud

The Federer/Simon match has upset all over it

If Federer doesn't win in straight sets, his chances fall hugely.

Federer has never beaten Simon. Simon has won both of their previous 2 meetings.

[The-Champ]

Originally Posted by Mustard

Federer has never beaten Simon. Simon has won both of their previous 2 meetings.

those were not 5-set matches though.

[Bud]

Originally Posted by The-Champ

those were not 5-set matches though.

Simon has a huge advantage in 5-set matches... check out their records in the OP

The bigger and more important variable will be the hugeness of the occasion... beating and knocking Federer out of a GS tournament in an early round. However, Simon is definitely not intimidated by Federer and will not roll over for him like many players

Simon just had a huge win as well in Sydney today (defeating Troicki in straight sets)... his first outdoor HC title in quite some time.

[dlk]

Originally Posted by The-Champ

those were not 5-set matches though.

True, but statistics show Simon with better 5 set percentage if they would go longer than 3. On the other hand, Simon would be in rare atmosphere/pressure facing Fed in a slam. But Bud's right, it is a potential roadblock/tough early test for Fed.

[Mustard]

If they do meet, I expect Federer to win. But, it has the potential to be one of those matches where the big champion loses early on (think Sampras at 2001 Wimbledon).

[Bud]

Originally Posted by Mustard

If they do meet, I expect Federer to win. But, it has the potential to be one of those matches where the big champion loses early on (think Sampras at 2001 Wimbledon).

Agreed. If Federer fails to win in straight sets it will become increasingly difficult to d. Simon.

[Sid_Vicious]

Originally Posted by Bud

Simon has a huge advantage in 5-set matches... check out their records in the OP

The bigger and more important variable will be the hugeness of the occasion... beating and knocking Federer out of a GS tournament in an early round. However, Simon is definitely not intimidated by Federer and will not roll over for him like many players

Simon just had a huge win as well in Sydney today (defeating Troicki in straight sets)... his first outdoor HC title in quite some time.

He certainly does not have a "huge" advantage. Federer's 5 set record is based on 31 observations whereas Simon's is based on only 7... How on earth are these numbers giving any sort of window into who has the advantage in a 5 set match? It is nonsense.

Simon has won 71 percent of his 5 setters whereas Federer has won 55 percent of his 5 setters. If this raw and unevaluated 16% differential between them is enough to prove that Simon has an edge in a 5 set match.... I guess Tsonga has a huge advantage in 5 setters over Nadal as he has a pure 100% win record in those matches, while Nadal has won only 82% of such matches. Crap! That is an 18% differential between them. Tsonga has an even bigger edge over Nadal in 5 setters than Simon has over Federer.

Terrible misuse of statistics.

[MichaelNadal]

Federer will steamroll Simon, I don't expect him to be troubled too much in this tournament.

[Bud]

Originally Posted by Sid_Vicious

He certainly does not have a "huge" advantage. Federer's 5 set record is based on 31 observations whereas Simon's is based on only 7... How on earth are these numbers giving any sort of window into who has the advantage in a 5 set match? It is nonsense.

Simon has won 71 percent of his 5 setters whereas Federer has won 55 percent of his 5 setters. If this raw and unevaluated 16% differential between them is enough to prove that Simon has an edge in a 5 set match.... I guess Tsonga has a huge advantage in 5 setters over Nadal as he has a pure 100% win record in those matches, while Nadal has won only 82% of such matches. Crap! That is an 18% differential between them. Tsonga has an even bigger edge over Nadal in 5 setters than Simon has over Federer.

Terrible misuse of statistics.

7 matches is plenty to detect a developing pattern or trend

What was the percentage of Federer's first seven 5-set matches? I'll look... hang on.

Federer was 4 of 7 or 57% (very close to his current percentage of 55%)

Nadal was 5 of 7 or 71% (slightly lower than his current 82%)

BTW, I don't see any other guys near the top that went 4-0 in their first four 5-set matches so don't disrespect what Tsonga has accomplished.

[Sid_Vicious]

Originally Posted by Bud

7 matches is plenty to detect a developing pattern or trend

What was the percentage of Federer's first seven 5-set matches? I'll look... hang on.

Federer was 4 of 7 or 57% (very close to his current percentage of 55%)

Nadal was 5 of 7 or 71% (slightly lower than his current 82%)

BTW, I don't see any other guys near the top that went 4-0 in their first four 5-set matches so don't disrespect what Tsonga has accomplished.

Not at all, man. The percentage you calculated for Nadal's first 7 five setters is anything but "slight lower". That is an 11% decline!

Small samples are very unreliable. Using only the first seven of Roger's 5 setters, the fact that you came at a percentage that is close to his current one is a mere coincidence and doesnt indicate a pattern or trend at all. Following his first 7 five set matches, Federer went 3/7 in his next 7 five set matches.... that is 43% and certainly not indicative of a trend.

If you want an even better example, look at Lleyton Hewitt's record. He won 3 out of his first 7 five set matches (43%). His actual career record is 30-15 (67%). Seven matches is just too small a sample to give an accurate account.


Also, I didn't disrespect Tsonga. All I'm saying is this; If I was a betting man, I wouldn't look at Tsonga's perfect 4-0 record as a good reason to put money on him over Nadal in a best of five set match. I would take Nadal's inferior yet more statistically sound percentage in five set matches to be a greater reason to bet on him .

[Bud]

Originally Posted by Sid_Vicious

Not at all, man. The percentage you calculated for Nadal's first 7 five setters is anything but "slight lower". That is an 11% decline!

Small samples are very unreliable. Using only the first seven of Roger's 5 setters, the fact that you came at a percentage that is close to his current one is a mere coincidence and doesnt indicate a pattern or trend at all. Following his first 7 five set matches, Federer went 3/7 in his next 7 five set matches.... that is 43% and certainly not indicative of a trend.

If you want an even better example, look at Lleyton Hewitt's record. He won 3 out of his first 7 five set matches (43%). His actual career record is 30-15 (67%). Seven matches is just too small a sample to give an accurate account.

So, the 5-set percentages trend upward rather than downward as more matches are played... meaning Simon's 5-set record is mot likely to improve.

Be ironic if Simon improved his 5-set record at Federer's expense

[Sid_Vicious]

Originally Posted by Bud

So, the 5-set percentages trend upward rather than downward as more matches are played... meaning Simon's 5-set record is mot likely to improve.

Be ironic if Simon improved his 5-set record at Federer's expense

That would be nice if it were actually a consistent fact. Simon's percentage can end up improving or declining. If he loses his next match he will drop down to to 62%, if he wins his next one it will go up to 75%.There have been player's who weren't so fortunate and their 5 set records plummeted. Not everyone can be a badass like Hewitt.

[TheFifthSet]

Bud: Has it occurred to you that maybe the players that have taken Federer to 5 are superior to the ones that have taken Simon to 5? Since 2003 Federer has been beaten in 5 by Nadal Djokovic Safin Del Potro and Nalbandian. Those are all players far, far greater than Simon. It takes a great player to push, much less beat Federer in 5. Who has Simon faced on his 5 set list? Vastly inferior to the players Federer has, that's just undeniable.

Since when has a non-elite player beaten Federer in 5?