What is the expected outcome of 4.0 against 4.5 or 5.0

[anantak2k]

Originally Posted by TheCheese

I think another problem with a generalization like that is there are often times bigger skill gaps between levels.

I'd say there's a bigger skill gap from 4.0 ---> 5.0, than from 3.0 ---> 4.0, for example.

Also, it's going to be harder for a 5.0 to bagel a 4.5 than for a 4.0 to bagel a 3.5, imo.

I definitely agree with this.

As a 4.5 player, I can play at a competitive level against 5.0 players. It's is also usually an easy win for me against 4.0s unless its a type of player that I have some match-up issues against. Obviously if I play a 3.5, its pretty much stream rolling. I can play half asleep and still win easily and sometimes even switch left handed to make things more interesting.

[jdubbs]

Im a 4.5 and play competitively againt 5.0' but I can lose to counterpunchers badly at 4.5.
It is all about matchups, like the above poster said. If you hit the ball hard, i love pace.

[TheCheese]

Honestly, I'd be stoked if much better players decided to play down in my division. It'd be a fun challenge.

[tennisjon]

Originally Posted by anantak2k

I definitely agree with this.

As a 4.5 player, I can play at a competitive level against 5.0 players. It's is also usually an easy win for me against 4.0s unless its a type of player that I have some match-up issues against. Obviously if I play a 3.5, its pretty much stream rolling. I can play half asleep and still win easily and sometimes even switch left handed to make things more interesting.

Same with me. I have beaten a couple of 5.0s and have lost to a couple of 4.0s. If the 4.0 is a huge server and you are off on the returns, they can be in the match and one slip-up on your own serve and you lose the set. A 3.5 won't get more than a game off me and I won't get more than a game off a 5.5.

[Angle Queen]

Expected outcome? No such thing.

I am a 3.5 and here are my results this spring season in singles:

W 6-1, 6-3 (against a 4.0)
L 6-1, 6-3 (against a 3.5)
L 6-1, 6-2 (against a 4.0)

It's all about the match-ups and The Day.

Match #1 was against a "new" 4.0. While she was mostly a doubles player (like me), she'd had moderate, even better than average, success as a singles player at 3.5. That match was NID, she said so herself and I believed it too. Should've even been -1 and -1 but my kids (and their "watcher") showed up and I was watching them instead of the ball. To be fair, though, my opponent had "picked it up" and the points were more even.

Match #2 was against an opponent who could do no wrong that day. While she wasn't hitting the lines, most of her shots were within 6" of a line, side or back. Just "in the zone."

Match #3 was against an opponent who'd been to Nationals as a 4.0 but still stayed at that NTRP. Just like J_R_B, I had many game points against her and played as well as I had in weeks. She was just that much better on the big points. We had a thoroughly enjoyable and competitive match that spectators watched to its conclusion.

So...expected result....between 0.5 NTRP...is no such thing.

Just play your match and have fun.

[boris becker 1]

I am a 5.0 play against guys thats are 4.0 or 4.5 including 1 guy frequently.

The 4.5 has never won a set of me. The usual score is 6-1 6-2. against the 4.0 it is 6-0 or 6-1 and over in 30 minutes, I can hit a winner at will, he cannot return my serve at all.

If you play against a 4.0 that is a retriever or a pusher they can occasionally win 2/3 games in a set but wont win the set at all. Have lost a set to a 4.5 maybe 3 times usually due to being off timing wise,hungover, or disinterested

[storypeddler]

Originally Posted by J_R_B

It's not reality. I've played 5 4.5 matches and I've never once been double bageled. One match was against a guy who got bumped to 5.0. There was at least a 0.5 difference in our DNTRP. He won 6-2 6-1. Two were against the same guy who was the captain of a 4.5 team that made nationals. He was undefeated on the year, at least in the regular season. It's highly likely that our DNTRP difference was at least 0.5. He won 6-2 7-5 and 6-4 6-2. One match was against a guy who had a long term winning but not dominant record at 4.5, just like I have at 4.0. It's likely our DNTRP difference was almost exactly 0.5 since his long term record at 4.5 was nearly identical to mine at 4.0. He won 6-4 6-0.

The problem with the statement is mathematical ignorance on the part of the USTA. A "typical" match result isn't defined. How much of the time is a 0.5 difference in DNTRP going to produce double bagels? 10% (1 in 10)? 15% (roughly 1 in 6 or 7)? 20% (1 in 5)? Does that qualify as "typical"? There is no mathematical definition for "typical". I think the median result is probably something in the 4-6 game range (or 6-2 6-3 or something like that), and it's certainly plausible that the 4.0 will actually win some number of matches at the other tail of the distribution (again 5% or 1 in 20, 10% or 1 in 10, hard to say...).

Absolutely agree. And besides the on-target points you make, there is also the consideration that some players' styles just don't match up well against certain other styles. What if a match is on clay instead of a hard court? What if the match is played on an August afternoon when it is 100 degrees and the better player, while having superior strokes, has far inferior stamina and conditioning? The USTA has a standard for what you should expect a player at a given level should look like, but the truth is there are all kinds of players at all levels who have all different kinds of looks on the court. Tennis players aren't clones of some company prototype. The USTA likes to try to create a capsule answer for every question, but there are dozens of outlying variations that make their answer inconsistent at best. Their logic might make sense between a player rated 3.01 and a player rated 3.49 because the lower-rated player is fairly far down the skill level anyway. He will make enough errors to lose the match if his opponent simply hangs in there. But there is no way you can expect a match between a 4.01 player and a 4.49 player to consistently end 6-0, 6-0. That is a myth. The reality is that it just doesn't happen very often---certainly not frequently.

[retlod]

A 4.5 will beat a 4.0 by 2 breaks per set. A 4.0 should never be able to take a game off of a 5.0.

[LuckyR]

This question is misleading because of how the USTA uses three significant digits but only prints two.

That is 4.0 means 4.00 through 4.49, so if a 4.49 plays a 4.50, it is essentially a coin flip either could win.

OTOH, the USTA specifically states that a 0.49 difference would be expected to be a double bagel.

So with this information a 4.0 (really 4.49) could beat a 4.5 (4.50) and in another match a 4.0 (4.49) can double bagel another 4.0 (4.00).

Both scores would be correct as illustrated, though that is not a blanket excuse that sandbagging does not exist, anyone with a whit of sense knows that it does.

[Wuppy]

Good analysis, thanks