Murray Will Get a Good Look at Wimbledon This Year

[nadal_slam_king]

Originally Posted by winstonplum

I can also see Nadal getting upset. I think people forget, he's made five straight finals. He's due for a Wimby letdown one of these years, a la Fed the last two years. If he makes it to the semis, and Fed does too, holy frickin' smokes! And they will be in each other's half of the draw. Talk about semifinal fireworks! First time since 2008! Fed would have to go in as the slight favorite.

The reason why Nadal doesn't get upset early in slams, and the reason why he's made 8 of the last 9 slam finals, and the reason why he's made 5 straight Wimbledon finals, is because Nadal treats each opponent like they are better than him. Nadal fears his opponent, no matter who it is, more than the opponent fears Nadal. No chance of an upset, unless the opponent truly is better than Nadal. No way would Seppi take Nadal to 5 sets, on any surface. And only in Federer's fans dreams will Federer be favorite in a Wimbledon semi-final vs Nadal....

[batz]

Originally Posted by Tony48

Murray on Djoker's side at Wimbledon.

LMAO....WIMBLEDON. This is the same place that "coincidentally" had Isner and Mahut play each other in the 1st round again.

Not happening.

It must truly amaze you when someone wins the lottery; and yet it happens most weeks, twice a week - I guess you've never read any Richard Feynman.

[sbengte]

Originally Posted by nadal_slam_king

The reason why Nadal doesn't get upset early in slams, and the reason why he's made 8 of the last 9 slam finals, and the reason why he's made 5 straight Wimbledon finals, is because Nadal treats each opponent like they are better than him. Nadal fears his opponent, no matter who it is, more than the opponent fears Nadal. No chance of an upset, unless the opponent truly is better than Nadal. No way would Seppi take Nadal to 5 sets, on any surface.

I would take your word for it. But Petzschner and Haase taking Nadal to 5 sets at Wimbledon 2010 come to mind and he needed MTOs to regroup and win in one (or was it both ?) of them. Was this a case of the opponent being better ?

[nadal_slam_king]

Originally Posted by sbengte

I would take your word for it. But Petzschner and Haase taking Nadal to 5 sets at Wimbledon 2010 come to mind and he needed MTOs to regroup and win in one (or was it both ?) of them. Was this a case of the opponent being better ?

Did you give Petz and Haase a chance of winning the 5th set? Do you know Nadal's 5 set record? I think it may bet the greatest in tennis history. If anyone gets into a 5th set vs Nadal, they have almost zero chance of winning, maybe a 5% chance. I recall Nadal had a tendinitis flare-up treated just after Wimbledon 2010. So obviously he was suffering from that during Wimbledon 2010 (and there was a stage in the Petz match where Nadal was checking with the trainer to see if the pain in his knee was tendinitis or something serious), so you can excuse him from not being at his best along the way. When he faces big servers, and he's not feeling great physically, those guys can hold serve and keep it close. Plus I think week one, when Nadal is still adjusting to grass is the time when Nadal has his close matches. But there was no chance of him losing those matches. He is much too clutch. It's almost as if you have a better chance of beating Nadal when the match is just beginning, than in the 5th set when Nadal is a machine.

[Sentinel]

batz, what's the news on Andy's back ?

I am not following the Aegon/Halle -- too tired from RG, lol, and Halle doesn't come on my telly (only AEGON does). Is he playing anywhere this week ?

[sbengte]

Originally Posted by Sentinel

batz, what's the news on Andy's back ?

I am not following the Aegon/Halle -- too tired from RG, lol, and Halle doesn't come on my telly (only AEGON does). Is he playing anywhere this week ?

He lost to Mahut at Aegon I still think it shouldn't matter much for his Wimbledon chances.

[batz]

Originally Posted by Sentinel

batz, what's the news on Andy's back ?

I am not following the Aegon/Halle -- too tired from RG, lol, and Halle doesn't come on my telly (only AEGON does). Is he playing anywhere this week ?

He got beat 7-6 in the third against Mahut in R2 (had a bye in R1) @ AEGON. Says his back is fine so no excuses.

[Russeljones]

Originally Posted by winstonplum

Muzza will get Djokovic in his half. There is an 87.5 percent that will happen--7 out of 8 in other words. While on paper, this is not good, I think Djoker could be primed for an upset. If Djoker makes it to the fourth round and has to face Delpo or Isner, I would pick the upset. If Djoker gets Berdych or Tsonga in the quarters, I'd pick the upset (assuming Tsonga is healthy). Djoker's a lock for the semi if he avoids the above scenarios.

If Murray makes it to the semis and faces anyone but Djoker, he wins. He'd now be able to win his home slam only having to beat Fed or Nadal, assuming they both semi.

I can also see Nadal getting upset. I think people forget, he's made five straight finals. He's due for a Wimby letdown one of these years, a la Fed the last two years. If he makes it to the semis, and Fed does too, holy frickin' smokes! And they will be in each other's half of the draw. Talk about semifinal fireworks! First time since 2008! Fed would have to go in as the slight favorite.

Can I have a glass of whatever you're drinking (unless it's Guinness)?

[DRII]

I also think Murray is in for some kind of break thru soon.

Him hitting out on his shots at the F.O. (due to his back ailment if thats true) and winning matches doing so -- should sink in and lift his game. I think he will be more aggressive on big points from now on...

[NadalAgassi]

Originally Posted by winstonplum

Talk about semifinal fireworks! First time since 2008! Fed would have to go in as the slight favorite.

If they play each other in the semis Federer would in no universe be the favorite. As you pointed out Nadal has been in every final since 2006 (apart from the Wimbledon he missed). Federer has lost the quarters the last 2 years. Not to mention Federer not beating Nadal in a slam since 2007, and the clay excuse doesnt fly as 3 of those have not even been on clay. The real question is if Federer would have any chance at all to win if they play in the semis.

[jokinla]

Originally Posted by batz

By that logic we better also hope that Roger avoids Hewitt.

Well if Rog had just lost to him, then I'd agree, but he didn't. As big of a Murray fan as you are, you are sensible enough to know that
A. I was joking.
B. This thread is absurd.

[laughingbuddha]

Originally Posted by winstonplum

Muzza will get Djokovic in his half. There is an 87.5 percent that will happen--7 out of 8 in other words. While on paper, this is not good, I think Djoker could be primed for an upset. If Djoker makes it to the fourth round and has to face Delpo or Isner, I would pick the upset. If Djoker gets Berdych or Tsonga in the quarters, I'd pick the upset (assuming Tsonga is healthy). Djoker's a lock for the semi if he avoids the above scenarios.

If Murray makes it to the semis and faces anyone but Djoker, he wins. He'd now be able to win his home slam only having to beat Fed or Nadal, assuming they both semi.

I can also see Nadal getting upset. I think people forget, he's made five straight finals. He's due for a Wimby letdown one of these years, a la Fed the last two years. If he makes it to the semis, and Fed does too, holy frickin' smokes! And they will be in each other's half of the draw. Talk about semifinal fireworks! First time since 2008! Fed would have to go in as the slight favorite.

Probability comes in 5th grade. Don't get ahead of yourself!

[winstonplum]

Originally Posted by laughingbuddha

Probability comes in 5th grade. Don't get ahead of yourself!

Anyway, back on planet Earth, where the rest of us non-tin-foil hat wearers don't think the ATP manipulates every draw . . . Fed will be in Nadal's draw. And then the conspiracy theorists, I'm assuming you're one of them based on your caustic remark, will say that it just happened because the sponsors want to see Fed/Nadal. Blah, blah, blah.

I'll stick to my original prediction: Murray will get a good look at the title if Djokovic catches Berdych/Tsonga in the quarters or Isner/Delpo in the 4th.

[Rickenbacker4003]

If you mean from a chiropractor's office, then I totally concur.

[batz]

Originally Posted by jokinla

Well if Rog had just lost to him, then I'd agree, but he didn't. As big of a Murray fan as you are, you are sensible enough to know that
A. I was joking.
B. This thread is absurd.

A. So was I (as if Roger would lose to Hewitt @ SW19)

B. Not any more absurd than many other threads

[Tony48]

Originally Posted by batz

It must truly amaze you when someone wins the lottery; and yet it happens most weeks, twice a week - I guess you've never read any Richard Feynman.

It was an obvious, convenient spectacle.

[batz]

Originally Posted by Tony48

It was an obvious, convenient spectacle.

The thing that you keep neglecting to provide Tony, is motive. What did the cheats (because that's what you are implying they are) over at the AELTC have to gain by fixing the draw so Mahut plays Isner again?

Before answering consider the following facts:

1. AELTC aren't driven solely by money. They know the value of their tournament, but they are not driven by money - if they were they could bag many more millions of Her Majesty's pounds by having courtside advertising like the other slams. The reason they don't do this? - they think it would spoil the look of the place. How quaint, and not exactly Gordon Gekko behaviours.

2. Following on from 1, their tournament is hugely over-subscribed for all 14 days - to the point where they have to do a national ballot. It's sold out and all the TV deals are cut. They don't need to fix a draw to create a 'convenient spectacle' - they've got plenty of spectacle already thanks; as evidenced by sellout crowds and big TV deals.

So why are they fixing draws?

[Homeboy Hotel]

"Murray Will Get a Good Look at Wimbledon This Year"

I thought this was a bumped thread from 2008.

[Fedex]

Originally Posted by winstonplum

Based on the laws of probability, the fact that Djokovic drew Federer in Rome and RG, the last two tournaments where these four players were seeded in this order, the chance of that happening three times in a row are 1 out of 8. Hence, the chance that Fed will fall into Rafa's half are 7 out of 8.

If you went back in time to Rome and said the chances of Fed and Djoker being in the same half for the next three tournaments are 1 in 8 then you would be correct.
However, the chances of Fed and Djoker being in the same half for the next tournament, Wimbledon, are 1 in 2.
Probability can mess with your mind.
Time is a factor.
You are saying it now therefore the chances are only 1 in 2.

Originally Posted by winstonplum

Muzza will get Djokovic in his half. There is an 87.5 percent that will happen--7 out of 8 in other words. While on paper, this is not good, I think Djoker could be primed for an upset. If Djoker makes it to the fourth round and has to face Delpo or Isner, I would pick the upset. If Djoker gets Berdych or Tsonga in the quarters, I'd pick the upset (assuming Tsonga is healthy). Djoker's a lock for the semi if he avoids the above scenarios.

If Murray makes it to the semis and faces anyone but Djoker, he wins. He'd now be able to win his home slam only having to beat Fed or Nadal, assuming they both semi.

I can also see Nadal getting upset. I think people forget, he's made five straight finals. He's due for a Wimby letdown one of these years, a la Fed the last two years. If he makes it to the semis, and Fed does too, holy frickin' smokes! And they will be in each other's half of the draw. Talk about semifinal fireworks! First time since 2008! Fed would have to go in as the slight favorite.

he gets a look every year. but never even a sniff of the final