Djokers 2011 was wakeup call to both Rafa and Fed

[MG1]

Originally Posted by Mustard

Nadal didn't play well against Bellucci in the first round of Wimbledon. He was 0-4 down in the first set.

that was like first 10 mins of match and after that he comfortably defeated belluuci. he even had matches in past yrs when he trailed 2 sets many times but he managed to overcome in past but this time he missed.

[Netspirit]

Nadal remains the favorite at RG, co-favorite at AO with Djokovic, and co-favorite at Wimbledon with the rest of top 3. I do not think he is winning the USO again, but he has a chance there as well.

In short, Nadal is still alive and dangerous, even if exhausted after the clay season. Let this Rosol incident not blind you.

[Nathaniel_Near]

Originally Posted by Leto

I think Djoker's breakthrough in 2011 caught both Fed and Rafa off guard, and we are now seeing the both of them up their game, to stay competitive.

Full respect to Fed for his win today, but I think the longer term effect is that Rafa will right the ship, and win the majority of slams over the next 2 years.

"Majority" does not mean he will win every single slam, so calm down.

My guess is that over the next 2 years, Rafa will win more slams than Djoker. Djoker will be a close second, with Murray/Fed/Someone New picking up the scraps.

I know that there are people out there who genuinely think Rafa's days are done, and it's a resonabale point of view. But I'm coming from the viewpoint that breaking Borg's record at the FO, along with the rest of his incredible run to get over the Djoker hurdle, drained Rafa a bit during this year's Wimbledon (I don't think his knees really had anything to do with it).

Rafa is still the most dangerous player on tour, IMO, when it comes to the slams...regardless of surface!

I agree completely. Fedal are rising, but especially Nadal. Some of the standard of play from both of them has been unreal this year, however if they meet in the Slams Nadal will win most (or all) of the encounters. They've been stunned into action and Nole is trying to cling onto his recent version 2 form. So, I do expect Nadal to win 4 of the next 8 or so Slams, Nole 2, Federer and Murray 1 each, or something like that.

But I'm hoping that winning this Wimbledon final may unlock something within Roger that allows him to ride this success and maintain his amazing form for at least a long time yet. In both of Nole's 2 recent losses to Nadal and Federer, Fedal barely missed a backhand. When there was nowhere to go to and no weakness to exploit, Fedal's biggest strengths proved to be too much for Nole. Halting the leaking of errors on their weakest wings was the most important aspect of their recent successes against the Djoker.

[TeflonTom]

i think realistically, top 3 are very close talent-wise. to generalise a fair bit, Nadal fave on slow surfaces, Fed fave on fast surfaces. Djokovic fave on more moderate surfaces where other two have less advantage

nature of tour suits nadal best - tour has tons of clay where it is v tough for the other guys to challenge him, n lotsa slow hardcourts where he is also pretty comfortable.

djok bein an allrounder will always be a serious contender on more moderate surfaces that make up big share of the tour, n bein a better slow-court player than fed is able to hoover up any clay titles that nadal misses

fed otoh has to be happy with the scraps available from indoor season, plus a bit of grass. hard to be number 1 when ur favourite surface doesnt even have a slam

based on that, i really think fed has no chance at bein consistent number 1. djok will be #1 when playin his best, but other than that I think nadz will sorta get it by default. Even if hes not playin best tennis of the 3, all those clay points plus the FO give him a huge head start

[Nathaniel_Near]

Originally Posted by TeflonTom

i think realistically, top 3 are very close talent-wise. to generalise a fair bit, Nadal fave on slow surfaces, Fed fave on fast surfaces. Djokovic fave on more moderate surfaces where other two have less advantage

nature of tour suits nadal best - tour has tons of clay where it is v tough for the other guys to challenge him, n lotsa slow hardcourts where he is also pretty comfortable.

djok bein an allrounder will always be a serious contender on more moderate surfaces that make up big share of the tour, n bein a better slow-court player than fed is able to hoover up any clay titles that nadal misses

fed otoh has to be happy with the scraps available from indoor season, plus a bit of grass. hard to be number 1 when ur favourite surface doesnt even have a slam

based on that, i really think fed has no chance at bein consistent number 1. djok will be #1 when playin his best, but other than that I think nadz will sorta get it by default. Even if hes not playin best tennis of the 3, all those clay points plus the FO give him a huge head start

OK. But, based on historical trends, Federer should be considered the favourite to end 2012 as the year-end numer 1. This is because the upcoming part of the season is where he tends to excel relatively in terms of ranking points earned compared to Djokovic and in particularly, Nadal. Right now, the top three are virtually equal in the ATP rankings race - ranking points earned only in the existing calendar year thus far.

[TopFH]

Originally Posted by Netspirit

In my book, Nadal is the real #1 now.

Djokovic has cooled down - just watch his points evaporate over time and slam titles go, one by one.
Federer, with all due respect, is finished. He has enough game to beat top 3 indoors, but that's it.
Murray has improved, but he is still a retriever, and he cannot out-retrieve Nadal if the Spaniard is healthy.

Raonic, Del Potro, Tsonga, Ferrer and Berdych are all tier 2 players. No one new has broken through so far, no dangerous 18, 20, 22 year-olds in sight. The next generation is largely missing. While Nadal's older opposition is weakening, he is enjoying almost no pressure from the young side.

I do not expect Nadal to win everything like he did in 2010, but he will keep collecting 1-2 slams a year for the next few years, and that will be more than anyone else will be able to achieve on the slam front.

It's not like he just won Wimbledon again and broke the record for most weeks at #1...

[Aeropax]

Haha, wake up call. Nadal was a point away from being 4-setted AGAIN to start the year in the AO, which to his credit played three gutsy break points to avoid... only to lose in the 5th, and then was on the verge of choking away the FO.... thus giving the guy a grand slam.

I wouldn't say he's woken up quite yet... though the three wins on clay were absolute musts. Let's see what happens when they play in Toronto/Cinci/Flushing Meadows..

Federer... wrecked at the FO, though played a GREAT match to beat him at SW19... I'd say Federer will have much better luck against Djokovic now that he is #1 and has beaten him in their last match up.

[TeflonTom]

Originally Posted by Nathaniel_Near

OK. But, based on historical trends, Federer should be considered the favourite to end 2012 as the year-end numer 1. This is because the upcoming part of the season is where he tends to excel relatively in terms of ranking points earned compared to Djokovic and in particularly, Nadal. Right now, the top three are virtually equal in the ATP rankings race - ranking points earned only in the existing calendar year thus far.

right this instant, hard to say cos fed n djok both got a lotta points to defend before christmas so its less about historical trends n more about form compared to last yr. depends on North American hardcourts I think. djok has a ton of points to defend between now and uso. fed has very little.

if fed does well, makes a couple of masters finals n maybe picks up a title, and/or djok drops a decent number of points then it is going to be really hard for djok to get past him even if he wins the uso n fed has a below-par indoor season

if djok hangs onto most of his points, means pressure is on fed. he had big indoor season last year - winnin basel, paris masters and WTF.

otoh, aside from his USO final nadal got pretty much nothin to defend for the rest of the year. if the other guys don't defend their points (and all it takes is for them both to have a coupla bad matches at the wrong time) then pretty easy for him to scoop the pool

i suppose if u put a gun 2 my head i would prolly say fed's got the best chance, but i wouldnt bet on any of em right now. after cincy we will have a much better idea. one of the 3 will have dropped out of serious contention n one of the remainin 2 will be a clearer fave

if fed can do it, would be the first time anyone twice regained YE#1.

[Clarky21]

Originally Posted by Nathaniel_Near

I agree completely. Fedal are rising, but especially Nadal. Some of the standard of play from both of them has been unreal this year, however if they meet in the Slams Nadal will win most (or all) of the encounters. They've been stunned into action and Nole is trying to cling onto his recent version 2 form. So, I do expect Nadal to win 4 of the next 8 or so Slams, Nole 2, Federer and Murray 1 each, or something like that.

But I'm hoping that winning this Wimbledon final may unlock something within Roger that allows him to ride this success and maintain his amazing form for at least a long time yet. In both of Nole's 2 recent losses to Nadal and Federer, Fedal barely missed a backhand. When there was nowhere to go to and no weakness to exploit, Fedal's biggest strengths proved to be too much for Nole. Halting the leaking of errors on their weakest wings was the most important aspect of their recent successes against the Djoker.

Is this post meant to be sarcastic?

[Netspirit]

Originally Posted by TopFH

It's not like he just won Wimbledon again and broke the record for most weeks at #1...

Reality check, maybe?

Federer had a cakewalk draw, then beat sick Djokovic, then Murray who had come through an insanely difficult quarter - both indoors. He did not play Nadal who was exhausted after winning ALL red clay tournaments.

2 indoor victories - great, no doubt. But it is nothing new, and not an indication of anything. We always knew that Federer is good indoors, and that he owns Murray when it matters.

The only thing that is new is that Djokovic is no longer in his 2011 god mode. It means Nadal has no opponent outdoors. Don't read much into this Rosol fiasco - that is not typical by any means.

[Nathaniel_Near]

Originally Posted by Clarky21

Is this post meant to be sarcastic?

Please just leave me alone, Clarky. You're exasperating enough as it is.

[Nathaniel_Near]

Originally Posted by TeflonTom

right this instant, hard to say cos fed n djok both got a lotta points to defend before christmas so its less about historical trends n more about form compared to last yr. depends on North American hardcourts I think. djok has a ton of points to defend between now and uso. fed has very little.

if fed does well, makes a couple of masters finals n maybe picks up a title, and/or djok drops a decent number of points then it is going to be really hard for djok to get past him even if he wins the uso n fed has a below-par indoor season

if djok hangs onto most of his points, means pressure is on fed. he had big indoor season last year - winnin basel, paris masters and WTF.

otoh, aside from his USO final nadal got pretty much nothin to defend for the rest of the year. if the other guys don't defend their points (and all it takes is for them both to have a coupla bad matches at the wrong time) then pretty easy for him to scoop the pool

i suppose if u put a gun 2 my head i would prolly say fed's got the best chance, but i wouldnt bet on any of em right now. after cincy we will have a much better idea. one of the 3 will have dropped out of serious contention n one of the remainin 2 will be a clearer fave

if fed can do it, would be the first time anyone twice regained YE#1. But even if he did, will almost certainly lose it between the AO and start of the clay season.

Fair post. It could be a close three way battle for world no.1 by the time the World Tour Finals roll around - a tournie of course in which Federer would not be able to add to his existing counted ranking points, where as Nole and Nadal could gain 1000 + points.

[DoubleDeuce]

He was wake up call for Rosol

[TeflonTom]

Originally Posted by Nathaniel_Near

Fair post. It could be a close three way battle for world no.1 by the time the World Tour Finals roll around - a tournie of course in which Federer would not be able to add to his existing counted ranking points, where as Nole and Nadal could gain 1000 + points.

yeah possible. but i think it will prolly be a 2 way battle by then, one way or another. someone will be outta contention by then

murray is also unknown factor. cant make number 1, but he is in good form. has good chance to retain his own points, maybe steal points from other guys that they need for the race.

olympic points could end up bein kinda important, since they werent up 4 grabs last season. nadal has good results at olympics n uso then has nothin 2 defend for rest of season, suddenly it might be djok n federer scramblin to catch him

things can change quick.

[tudwell]

Originally Posted by Netspirit

Nadal remains the favorite at RG, co-favorite at AO with Djokovic, and co-favorite at Wimbledon with the rest of top 3. I do not think he is winning the USO again, but he has a chance there as well.

Not sure I agree with that. Nadal's a threat at any slam, but he's still relatively vulnerable at the Australian. He lost in the quarters twice fairly recently - I know he struggled with injuries in both of those matches, but that just shows that he's got to be at his absolute best to do well there, unlike Roland Garros.

[Clarky21]

Originally Posted by Nathaniel_Near

Please just leave me alone, Clarky. You're exasperating enough as it is.

Touchy,touchy. I was just asking a question,but now that I know you're serious,I also know you're bordering on delusional as well.

Not sure where to think of where Nadal is at now. His clay court form was miles better than last year, and his Australian Open was promising. However he still hasnt won a non clay title in almost 2 years now, and was awful on his historic 2nd best surface of grass just now.

Federer is burgeoning with more confidence than he has in awhile, but it still isnt going to be easy to stem the tide against Djokovic and Nadal for too long.

Djokovic isnt the same as he was last year but he is still very strong, and arguably the player to beat for now.

Murray is in a state of flux too. Still a distant #4, still without a slam, so close yet so far.

Tsonga seems the closest to a breakthrough behind but is still error prone and prone to falter at key moments.

Berdych is playing pretty well on the whole this year but even his pretty well wins against the big guys only 5-10% of the time, and leaves him vurnerable to losses to lower ranked guys who come up big on the day. He is too one dimensional to ever win a big title, and I think is already at about the max of his potential.

Ferrer is another who I see as already at about the max of his potential. His performance at Wimbledon on his worst surface was astoudning. For him to ever even make a slam final it had better happen soon though.

Del Potro is still working his way back bit by bit. The progress is too slow though. He is turning 24 in a couple months. Needs to start stepping it up in a much bigger way. The biggest worries with him is his fitness is still terrible. I know he had an injury but he literally couldnt play anymore against Federer at the French by halfway through the match. His beatdown loss to Ferrer at Wimbledon is not promising either.

The rest arent even worth noting at this point. Raonic could be a top 10 player soon if he gets some better draws.

[jokinla]

Well hopefully Rafa can up his game enough to get past Djoker in the US Open semis, so we can finally have a Fedal US Open final.

[TopFH]

Originally Posted by Netspirit

Reality check, maybe?

Federer had a cakewalk draw, then beat sick Djokovic, then Murray who had come through an insanely difficult quarter - both indoors. He did not play Nadal who was exhausted after winning ALL red clay tournaments.

2 indoor victories - great, no doubt. But it is nothing new, and not an indication of anything. We always knew that Federer is good indoors, and that he owns Murray when it matters.

The only thing that is new is that Djokovic is no longer in his 2011 god mode. It means Nadal has no opponent outdoors. Don't read much into this Rosol fiasco - that is not typical by any means.

So why hasn't he gotten a single title off-clay if only Djokovic can beat him? Looks like you need a reality check.

PS: By clay, I mean RED clay.