Fighting Spirit of Federer over the years

McEnroeisanartist · 10-12-2012, 10:30 AM

I thought it would be interesting to compare Federer's fighting spirit over the years. Fighting spirit defined as winning a two out of three set match after losing the first set.

2004 4-1
2005 6-0
2006 6-1
2007 2-6
2008 4-6
2009 3-6
2010 3-3
2011 0-6
2012 8-3

ollinger · 10-12-2012, 10:33 AM

In what sense do you find it interesting? What do you conclude?

Avles · 10-12-2012, 10:42 AM

Presumably he's concluding that Federer's fighting spirit has declined in recent years but has rebounded over the past year.

The difference between 2012 and 2007-2011 is stark enough to think that it might represent something more than coincidence.

But I don't think it makes sense to assume that "fighting spirit" is primarily responsible for results after losing a first set. Maybe it's fitness. Or it could be that Federer has lost the first set to inferior players this year as compared to in past years, making a comeback more likely. Or it could be that his first-set losses have tended to come in GS matches this year. Or it could be just be coincidence after all.

Basically, you'd have to look a lot further before drawing any conclusions about fighting spirit.

smoledman · 10-12-2012, 10:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Avles

Presumably he's concluding that Federer's fighting spirit has declined in recent years but has rebounded over the past year.

The difference between 2012 and 2007-2011 is stark enough to think that it might represent something more than coincidence.

But I don't think it makes sense to assume that "fighting spirit" is primarily responsible for results after losing a first set. Maybe it's fitness. Or it could be that Federer has lost the first set to inferior players this year as compared to in past years, making a comeback more likely. Or it could be that his first-set losses have tended to come in GS matches this year. Or it could be just be coincidence after all.

Basically, you'd have to look a lot further before drawing any conclusions about fighting spirit.

Except I remember him losing first sets to inferior players in 2006.

AO final - Baggy
Toronto final - Gasquet
YEC RR - Roddick

zam88 · 10-12-2012, 10:53 AM

on the other hand it seems like he's doing better of late in 5 set matches when he dumps the first two sets.

he's obviously not winning a ton of those (few do) but he's had some pretty good comebacks lately from 0-2 to win 3-2.. thinking of the FO, Wimbledon in recent years.

smoledman · 10-12-2012, 10:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zam88

on the other hand it seems like he's doing better of late in 5 set matches when he dumps the first two sets.

he's obviously not winning a ton of those (few do) but he's had some pretty good comebacks lately from 0-2 to win 3-2.. thinking of the FO, Wimbledon in recent years.

In his prime he never needed to come from behind 0-2 at FO/Wimbledon. Chalk it up to decline. Who did he beat in these 5-setters in recent years? Haas(choker), Berdych(mental), Falla(claycourt bum), Benneteau(journeyman), Del Potro(was injured).

zam88 · 10-12-2012, 11:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by smoledman

In his prime he never needed to come from behind 0-2 at FO/Wimbledon. Chalk it up to decline. Who did he beat in these 5-setters in recent years? Haas(choker), Berdych(mental), Falla(claycourt bum), Benneteau(journeyman), Del Potro(was injured).

well definitely i agree, that's the other part of the argument.

in '04-07 he didn't dump many sets period so there wasn't even the opportunity to do a comeback to test "fighting spirit"

Having said that, i still agree with the original post, after winning AO '10 Federer had a noticeable decline.. I think after not winning much for a year he decided to ramp things back up.

What I don't know is if he'll be able to keep things ramped up after meeting another set of career goals.

You almost wonder if he'll have to go through a losing streak again to have the will to ramp it back up again... and the problem will be it's pretty hard to ramp things back up with you're 32/33

sureshs · 10-12-2012, 11:04 AM

What about the best of 5 Slam matches?

6-1 6-3 6-0 · 10-12-2012, 11:05 AM

What good is a fighting spirit if you can't use it to beat your biggest rival?

McEnroeisanartist · 10-12-2012, 11:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 6-1 6-3 6-0

What good is a fighting spirit if you can't use it to beat your biggest rival?

Like Nadal with his old man knees?

McEnroeisanartist · 10-12-2012, 11:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Avles

Presumably he's concluding that Federer's fighting spirit has declined in recent years but has rebounded over the past year.

The difference between 2012 and 2007-2011 is stark enough to think that it might represent something more than coincidence.

But I don't think it makes sense to assume that "fighting spirit" is primarily responsible for results after losing a first set. Maybe it's fitness. Or it could be that Federer has lost the first set to inferior players this year as compared to in past years, making a comeback more likely. Or it could be that his first-set losses have tended to come in GS matches this year. Or it could be just be coincidence after all.

Basically, you'd have to look a lot further before drawing any conclusions about fighting spirit.

Yes, of course, that is what I am concluding. Is this measure perfect for defining his fight. No, of course not. But, I can not think of another way to statistically show how much Federer's effort and will to win as picked up over the last few years.

dominikk1985 · 10-12-2012, 11:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by McEnroeisanartist

I thought it would be interesting to compare Federer's fighting spirit over the years. Fighting spirit defined as winning a two out of three set match after losing the first set.

2004 4-1
2005 6-0
2006 6-1
2007 2-6
2008 4-6
2009 3-6
2010 3-3
2011 0-6
2012 8-3

Well 07 and 09 were 2 of his best years despite having a negative record. I would not read too much into this

smoledman · 10-12-2012, 11:13 AM

Federer has definitely shown more desire in the non-slam events since hooking up with Annacone.

above bored · 10-12-2012, 11:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 6-1 6-3 6-0

What good is a fighting spirit if you can't use it to beat your biggest rival?

Actually, Federer has beaten his biggest rivals many times.

On top of that ....... http://www.tennischannel.com/goat/71.aspx

underground · 10-12-2012, 11:59 AM

Roger 3.0. He's less likely to give away matches or choke up tight situations in 2012. He really was in decline in 2011, 0-6 is pretty bad.

It's amazing to see in 2005 Fed hasn't lost any Bo3 matches when he lost the 1st set.

Prisoner of Birth · 10-12-2012, 12:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by McEnroeisanartist

I thought it would be interesting to compare Federer's fighting spirit over the years. Fighting spirit defined as winning a two out of three set match after losing the first set.

2004 4-1
2005 6-0
2006 6-1
2007 2-6
2008 4-6
2009 3-6
2010 3-3
2011 0-6
2012 8-3

I think it's more a question of desire than anything else. Federer seems to have woken up in the past year with the desire to get to #1 again. He wasn't doing all that great at Slams and knew he had to win as many Masters titles as he could to be able to get there. He always hated losing but I don't think he was ever particularly determined during Masters tournaments (atleast not as much as he was during Grand Slams) in his prime or even 2008/2009. That could probably explain these stats.

Avles · 10-12-2012, 12:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by McEnroeisanartist

Yes, of course, that is what I am concluding. Is this measure perfect for defining his fight. No, of course not. But, I can not think of another way to statistically show how much Federer's effort and will to win as picked up over the last few years.

Whoops, didn't see that you'd specified best of 3.

Anyway, let's look a little closer here.

These are the opponents that Fed has lost first sets against in 2012:

Wins
Del Potro
Raonic (twice)
Roddick
Davydenko
Bellucci
Wawrinka
Berdych

Losses
Djokovic
Roddick
Haas

These are the players that Fed lost a first set against in 2011:
Losses
Djokovic (twice)
Nadal
Melzer
Berdych
Tsonga

Federer has lost many more first sets this year than last, and most of 2012's lost first sets came against players ranked well below him. You'd expect him to have a pretty good chance to come back against those guys.

On the other hand 4 of Fed's 6 first-set losses in 2011 came against top 10 players (and that's not including Tsonga who clearly belongs in the top 10). So it's not all that surprising that he didn't come back to win those matches.

I'm not convinced that Fed's beating guys like Roddick, Davydenko, Bellucci, Raonic, Del Potro and Wawrinka in 3 shows improved fighting spirit. If anything it may suggest that he's having a bit more trouble against inferior players in the first set.

I think there's an element of luck and small sample size here as well. In the 2005 season where Federer went 6-0 after losing the first set, 3 of those 6 wins came in a third set TB. That year's results could have looked a lot different if a few points had gone differently.

dangalak · 10-12-2012, 08:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by smoledman

In his prime he never needed to come from behind 0-2 at FO/Wimbledon. Chalk it up to decline. Who did he beat in these 5-setters in recent years? Haas(choker), Berdych(mental), Falla(claycourt bum), Benneteau(journeyman), Del Potro(was injured).

Del Potro was injured when he won those first 2 sets too.

Bennetau "the journeyman" would've possibly kicked out Djokovic or Nadal with the form he was playing. Who gives a **** where he is ranked?

Besides, you act like other people who constantly come back from 2 sets to 0 do it against mental GOATs....oh wait, what's that? Mentally tough players typically don't lose from 2 sets to lo 0 in the first place? And Djokovic and nadal don't have too many comebacks from the same position anyway?

What a useless post yours is.

Tony48 · 10-12-2012, 08:07 PM

2005: Wow
2011: Wow

underground · 10-13-2012, 01:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Avles

Whoops, didn't see that you'd specified best of 3.

Anyway, let's look a little closer here.

These are the opponents that Fed has lost first sets against in 2012:

Wins
Del Potro
Raonic (twice)
Roddick
Davydenko
Bellucci
Wawrinka
Berdych

Losses
Djokovic
Roddick
Haas

These are the players that Fed lost a first set against in 2011:
Losses
Djokovic (twice)
Nadal
Melzer
Berdych
Tsonga

Federer has lost many more first sets this year than last, and most of 2012's lost first sets came against players ranked well below him. You'd expect him to have a pretty good chance to come back against those guys.

On the other hand 4 of Fed's 6 first-set losses in 2011 came against top 10 players (and that's not including Tsonga who clearly belongs in the top 10). So it's not all that surprising that he didn't come back to win those matches.

I'm not convinced that Fed's beating guys like Roddick, Davydenko, Bellucci, Raonic, Del Potro and Wawrinka in 3 shows improved fighting spirit. If anything it may suggest that he's having a bit more trouble against inferior players in the first set.

I think there's an element of luck and small sample size here as well. In the 2005 season where Federer went 6-0 after losing the first set, 3 of those 6 wins came in a third set TB. That year's results could have looked a lot different if a few points had gone differently.

I think it's 3 times he came back from a set down against Raonic. IW, Madrid and Halle.

10-12-2012, 10:33 AM	#2
ollinger Hall Of Fame Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 4,418	In what sense do you find it interesting? What do you conclude? __________________ Angell 105 WC Silverstring

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