Is it theoretically possible that Ferrer could pass Nadal as the top ranked spaniard?

[timnz]

Could he do it in 2012? If not he could do it in 2013, particularly in the first half of the year.

I am particularly interested if it was possible in 2012

[Monsieur_DeLarge]

Originally Posted by timnz

Could he do it in 2012? If not he could do it in 2013, particularly in the first half of the year.

I am particularly interested if it was possible in 2012

Theoretically, winning Bercy and the WTF would lift him above Rafa, but that's a long, long, long shot. (In fact, I think he can overtake Nadal just by reaching the final in London, although that too is unlikely.)

However, if Daveed can win in Paris, get at least one match win at the Tour Finals, and go deep at the AO while Rafa underperforms (e.g. QF or earlier), then it is possible for him to snatch the #4 ranking in early 2013.


Regards,
MDL

[underground]

Rafa has a final to defend in the AO whereas Ferrer only has a QF. Given that Ferrer now is the favourite for Paris, he has a chance to surpass Rafa. But he has 2 RR wins to defend though.

[Sabratha]

I doubt it.

[vive le beau jeu !]

he'll do it at the beginning of 2013, hopefully.

[smoledman]

Go Pics, he deserves to be the #1 Spaniard for at least a little while.

[tennisaddict]

Ferrer vs Nadal AO Quarterfinal 2013 will decide.

[Sabratha]

If he can do it, how long would he hold it for?

[RAFA2005RG]

Originally Posted by timnz

Could he do it in 2012? If not he could do it in 2013, particularly in the first half of the year.

I am particularly interested if it was possible in 2012

Only if Ferrer thinks he's good enough to take the #1 ranking.

March 2010: Nadal ranked 4
June 2010: Nadal ranked 1

[Sabratha]

Originally Posted by RAFA2005RG

Only if Ferrer thinks he's good enough to take the #1 ranking.

March 2010: Nadal ranked 4
June 2010: Nadal ranked 1

With the way Nadal is right now, he's not taking the #1 ranking any time soon.

[RAFA2005RG]

Originally Posted by Sabratha

With the way Nadal is right now, he's not taking the #1 ranking any time soon.

Good luck with that

[Sabratha]

Originally Posted by RAFA2005RG

Good luck with that

Good luck with what? Nadal is just coming off an injury and a long lay off, he isn't going to be up to playing against Djokovic or Murray now any more than he was before. If anything, he's worse off than he was in the first place.

[NLBwell]

Depends how much and/or how well Nadal plays. If he doesn't play the Australian Open, Ferrer will likely pass him.

[NadalDramaQueen]

Originally Posted by Sabratha

Good luck with what? Nadal is just coming off an injury and a long lay off, he isn't going to be up to playing against Djokovic or Murray now any more than he was before. If anything, he's worse off than he was in the first place.

Do you not know anything? Nadal is only skipping this half of the year so that he has less points to defend next year.

*** knows what he is talking about. Do yourself a favor and heed his words without question.

[Def]

Originally Posted by timnz

Could he do it in 2012? If not he could do it in 2013, particularly in the first half of the year.

I am particularly interested if it was possible in 2012

It is very possible in 2012 (I'm pretty sure I got this right):

He is the clear favorite in Paris by a good amount IMO, He currently has 5390 points in the year-end race. Nadal "only" has 6795 points, this value will not change as he isn't playing the rest of the year. So Ferrer can end the year ranked #4 if:

He wins in Paris, having 6030 points going into London. Then he wins at least 2 RR matches and the semifinal. Giving him +800 points. This would put him at 6830, 35 points ahead of Nadal.

Or

If he only makes the final in Paris, he would have 5630 points going into the WTF, meaning he would have to win the WTF with at least 2 RR wins. This would give him +1300 points, or a 6930 total.

Or

If he loses to Llodra in the semis, he will have 5390 points, so if he wins the WTF without dropping a RR match, he will have 6890 points, just enough to edge out Nadal for the YE#4.

So there is a chance, but a very low one.

[NadalAgassi]

He should win Paris (but still might not) but the odds of making the WTF final probably arent great, but he did do it once so who knows.

[*Sparkle*]

If he wins Paris, he'll crash and burn in London, and he won't care. He might try to push for the ranking points, but it's a long-shot he'd succeed.

How Nadal does next year is unknown. If he comes back strong, he'd quickly overtake/extend his lead over Ferrer. If he's still rusty, Ferrer could take his chance then. Not that he can keep going at this level for much longer, surely?

[tennis_pro]

Originally Posted by RAFA2005RG

Good luck with that

Hope dies last Nadal even if he defended all his points won't be ranked 1st before the end of 2013 and that's the most optimistic version. He will be lucky to hold on to a top 4 ranking.

[dominikk1985]

Originally Posted by Sabratha

If he can do it, how long would he hold it for?

not for long probably (unless nadal has to retire or miss a lot of 2013 due to injuries) but it still would be a great success for ferrer to overtake rafa who is now the spanish no. 1 for about 7 years even if it is only for a few weeks or so.