Is It In Djok's Hands Who Advances With Him From Group A?

[stringertom]

I haven't studied all the permutations but it looks like Novak could gently boost Berd to the semis with a straight-set loss IF Andy has any trouble with Jo. Will this be in the back of his mind after all his recent long struggles vs Murray. I know it's a gamble because they could all wind up 2-1 and the tiebreakers will then determine the odd one out.

Please, your thoughts bcoz I'm scratching my head over this one.

[ark_28]

If Novak loses in straights the problem is he needs Tsonga to win a set! Murray wins in straights and Novak is out! Given Tsongas poor form and Murrays great record against the Frenchman I am not sure that Novak can take such a risk!

[tennis_pro]

Let's assume Murray beats Tsonga in 2 (cause that's what's probably gonna happen) and

a) Berdych beats Djokovic in 2

In this scenario you have:
1. Murray 2-1 5-3
2. Berdych 2-1 5-3
3. Djokovic 2-1 4-3
4. Tsonga 0-3 1-6

Murray qualifies 1st, Berdych 2nd, Djokovic gets knocked out.

b) Berdych beats Djokovic in 3
Murray, Berdych and Djokovic all finish with 2 matches won and a 5-3 ratio in sets. The % of games won comes in play.

I don't think Djokovic should take any chances, anything but a win against Berdych and he could finish 3rd in his group. The more he shouldn't take any risks as he's playing in the afternoon session so he doesn't know how the Murray-Tsonga match pans out.



All this talk won't last long, though. Watch Djokovic beat Berdych 3 and 3 and then watch Murray beat Tsonga 2 and 3.

[Duncan Bell]

Not a chance, can't see Tsonga getting a set, so would be too much of a risk

[JayChu]

If you check the ATP World Tour site, they have actuallly done all of the scenarios for each person to advance to the semi-finals.

Scroll down the page a bit, click on Group Standings and then click on something that says Semi-Finals qualification scenarios (sorry, I'm on my phone so I don't have the exact link)

[tennisaddict]

USO final was an aberration. Novak is not scared of Murray.He may probably like to avoid Fed at WTF

[Mainad]

Originally Posted by tennisaddict

USO final was an aberration. Novak is not scared of Murray.He may probably like to avoid Fed at WTF

Was his narrow 5 set win over Murray at the AO an aberration too or the 5 match points he managed to dodge from him in Shanghai not to mention his losses to him at Dubai and the Olympics as well as the USO this year? He is now 4-3 v Murray this year and 2-2 v Federer. Both are as close a match-up for him as you can get!

And how the heck can he avoid Fed at the WTF if he hopes to win it??

[CDNguy87]

Originally Posted by tennis_pro

b) Berdych beats Djokovic in 3
Murray, Berdych and Djokovic all finish with 2 matches won and a 5-3 ratio in sets. The % of games won comes in play.

.

If Berdych beats Djoker in 3, Berdych's sets record would actually be 5-4, so he would be eliminated by a Murray straight sets win. Djoker would get 1st in that scenario based on H2H over Murray.

Also, even if Murray needed 3 sets to beat Tsonga, Berdych would still be eliminated if he beat Novak in 3. Djoker would have the best sets record at 5-3, while Murray and Berdych would be tied at 5-4, but Murray would get 2nd on H2H.

[tennisaddict]

Originally Posted by Mainad

Was his narrow 5 set win over Murray at the AO an aberration too or the 5 match points he managed to dodge from him in Shanghai not to mention his losses to him at Dubai and the Olympics as well as the USO this year? He is now 4-3 v Murray this year and 2-2 v Federer. Both are as close a match-up for him as you can get!

And how the heck can he avoid Fed at the WTF if he hopes to win it??

Fed has got what he wanted, so i think he will not give his best or shank or tank his semis.

I see a Djoko Murray final,let us see who is right on that day.

[tennisaddict]

Originally Posted by Mainad

Was his narrow 5 set win over Murray at the AO an aberration too or the 5 match points he managed to dodge from him in Shanghai not to mention his losses to him at Dubai and the Olympics as well as the USO this year? He is now 4-3 v Murray this year and 2-2 v Federer. Both are as close a match-up for him as you can get!

And how the heck can he avoid Fed at the WTF if he hopes to win it??

It is the W that counts, not close matches, espescially with Novak , who is defintion of clutch. Is Dubai a 250 or 500 ?

[Hawkeye7]

Originally Posted by tennisaddict

It is the W that counts, not close matches, espescially with Novak , who is defintion of clutch. Is Dubai a 250 or 500 ?

Dubai is a 500 event. Well, the differences are still minimal. 4-3 is not exactly huge.

The only thing Djokovic could do to make things harder for Murray without risking going out himself, is let Berdych win in 3. But it would also mean risking that he only qualifies second. And I'm sure he likes the prospect of playing Ferrer/DelPo in the semis better than playing Federer. That way though Murray would have to win his match in order to qualify. If Djokovic wins, all Murray has to do is win a set.

The thing is, unless Djokovic wins in 2, Tsonga will be playing a dead rubber (from his perspective) and I'm not sure how motivated that would make him.

[stringertom]

Originally Posted by CDNguy87

If Berdych beats Djoker in 3, Berdych's sets record would actually be 5-4, so he would be eliminated by a Murray straight sets win. Djoker would get 1st in that scenario based on H2H over Murray.

Also, even if Murray needed 3 sets to beat Tsonga, Berdych would still be eliminated if he beat Novak in 3. Djoker would have the best sets record at 5-3, while Murray and Berdych would be tied at 5-4, but Murray would get 2nd on H2H.

So Berd is doomed if he doesn't straight-set Djok and Murray wins. Sounds like Tomas will be pedal-to-the-metal. Could result in a UE-fest if he's not on.

[CDNguy87]

Originally Posted by Hawkeye7

The thing is, unless Djokovic wins in 2, Tsonga will be playing a dead rubber (from his perspective) and I'm not sure how motivated that would make him.

This is a very important point. Tsonga's only hope for qualifying is if Djoker wins in straights and he beats Murray in straghts. I think Djoker's best advised to just try to finish off Berdych and ensure Tsonga has a live rubber. Since he'll need help from Tsonga anyway to knock out Murray, he might as well ensure he'll be motivated. There's also a clear benefit to clinching 1st in getting the (probably) easier Semi

But I think in a way Novak finishing 1st and Murray 2nd might be good for Djokovic. This ensures that Fed would probably need to beat Murray and Djokovic back-to-back in the Semi and Final, while Djoker would probably get Ferrer in a much easier Semi. Not only would it be more challenging for Fed to beat Murray in the Semi, but it would also be a much more gruelling match than if Fed were to play big hitters Berdych or Tsonga. Fed/Murray playing a tough Semi the day before the Final is pretty much the dream scenario for Novak...I think he'd be extremely confident playing in the Final against whoever came out on top of that.

[veroniquem]

Yes it's in his hands. I wouldn't trust Tsonga to win 1 set off Murray. Novak has to win a set vs Berd, which shouldn't be a huge problem imo. He doesn't need to win the match but it would be better for him to finish first of his group to avoid Fed in the semi.

[JayChu]

Originally Posted by veroniquem

Yes it's in his hands. I wouldn't trust Tsonga to win 1 set off Murray. Novak has to win a set vs Berd, which shouldn't be a huge problem imo. He doesn't need to win the match but it would be better for him to finish first of his group to avoid Fed in the semi.

Technically, Fed could tank his match against Del Potro to ensure that he faces Novak in the semis should Nole finish first in his group.

However, Federer is not the type of person that will tank a match just for the hell of it.

[veroniquem]

I think Fed is exactly the type of person to make calculations like this especially since it is also to his advantage to save his energy with (probably) Djoko and Murray waiting for him back to back without a day off. It will depend a lot on which Delpo shows up but I'm pretty sure Fed won't want to get dragged into a long drawn out battle a la Olympics, since that would pretty much destroy his chances for the rest of the tournament.

[cc0509]

Originally Posted by veroniquem

I think Fed is exactly the type of person to make calculations like this especially since it is also to his advantage to save his energy with (probably) Djoko and Murray waiting for him back to back without a day off. It will depend a lot on which Delpo shows up but I'm pretty sure Fed won't want to get dragged into a long drawn out battle a la Olympics, since that would pretty much destroy his chances for the rest of the tournament.

Fed won't tank against Del Potro, he is too proud and will want to avenge the Basel result.

[NadalDramaQueen]

Berdych looking to cause trouble.

[TheF1Bob]

Originally Posted by NadalDramaQueen

Berdych looking to cause trouble.

LOL Novaks already through.

[NadalDramaQueen]

Berdych choke coming up?