Why Roger will win the 2013 AO

[abmk]

djoker is the favourite vs fed at the AO ..

But if federer plays well and smartly, using his full repertoire of shots, mixing it up including junkballing instead of trying to trade hammerblows with novak , he can pull it off .....

[abmk]

Originally Posted by Homeboy Hotel

Federer will lose to Berdych in the night QF/SF match.

And be as successful as Djokovic and Nadal in defeating Federer in 3/4 slams.

nah, federer played horrendous in both wimby 2010 and USO 2012 vs berdych, not going to happen again @ this AO ... he will be out for revenge and charged up this time should they meet ...

[Feather]

Originally Posted by abmk

djoker is the favourite vs fed at the AO ..

But if federer plays well and smartly, using his full repertoire of shots, mixing it up including junkballing instead of trying to trade hammerblows with novak , he can pull it off .....

The three setter at AO 2011 was not that one sided. First set was a tie breaker, second Roger was leading 5-2 and he lost, third he broke back to 4-4 and then lost. It was just eight points difference in the end. It wasn't that one sided as many make it out to be. It's NOT like Roger doesn't have any chances at all

[The_Order]

I've got a feeling it's time for him to lose before QF stage. Can't go on forever and with the lack of playing any lead up tournament (apart from his exo unless I'm missing something) he will have his troubles. Don't ask me WHO will beat him, but I've got a feeling someone will before the QF stages.

[The_Order]

Originally Posted by abmk

djoker is the favourite vs fed at the AO ..

But if federer plays well and smartly, using his full repertoire of shots, mixing it up including junkballing instead of trying to trade hammerblows with novak , he can pull it off .....

He's not beating Djoker. Not a chance......

[batz]

Originally Posted by Fedex

Anyone other than Djokovic winning will be a major upset.
I'm so sure I'm tempted to put some money where my mouth is and place a large bet, and I'm not normally a gambling man.
Love him or hate him you have to admit you're looking at an all time great in the making who, like it or not, is destined to dominate and win many more slams.
The only fly in Djokovic's ointment could be peak Murray but how often is that going to show up?

Hi mate - hope you and the family had a great Xmas.

Re your statement in bold - don't do it mate. He's nowhere near the level of favourite that Rafa used to be at RG.

Let's consider things for a minute. He's around 5/4 - that equates to 44% in relative probability terms; let's be generous and make it 50%.

So - the guys who, for a living, price the risk of Djokovic winning the AO rate that event as being less likely than correctly calling heads on the toss of coin.

Would you bet a lot of money on the toss of a coin? Thought not - so it follows that you shouldn't bet a lot of money on an event with a lower probability of occuring.

[smoledman]

Heck I wouldn't put it past Roger to win all 4 in 2013. You can bump this post to the end of time if I'm wrong.

[Hawkeye7]

Originally Posted by batz

Hi mate - hope you and the family had a great Xmas.

Re your statement in bold - don't do it mate. He's nowhere near the level of favourite that Rafa used to be at RG.

Let's consider things for a minute. He's around 5/4 - that equates to 44% in relative probability terms; let's be generous and make it 50%.

So - the guys who, for a living, price the risk of Djokovic winning the AO rate that event as being less likely than correctly calling heads on the toss of coin.

Would you bet a lot of money on the toss of a coin? Thought not - so it follows that you shouldn't bet a lot of money on an event with a lower probability of occuring.

He better not win now, otherwise you might have robbed Fedex of a life of wealth and glamour.

[Feather]

Originally Posted by batz

Hi mate - hope you and the family had a great Xmas.

Re your statement in bold - don't do it mate. He's nowhere near the level of favourite that Rafa used to be at RG.

Let's consider things for a minute. He's around 5/4 - that equates to 44% in relative probability terms; let's be generous and make it 50%.

So - the guys who, for a living, price the risk of Djokovic winning the AO rate that event as being less likely than correctly calling heads on the toss of coin.

Would you bet a lot of money on the toss of a coin? Thought not - so it follows that you shouldn't bet a lot of money on an event with a lower probability of occuring.

I have slight hopes in Federer. It's not like Djokovic is gonna win it like Rafa win RG. And Roger is certainly the third favorite after Djokovic and Murray, irrespective of his loss to Berdych in USO

[Bobby Jr]

Originally Posted by 90's Clay

Roger can't beat Nole in Australia.. Don't be ridiculous. This isn't indoor fast grass. The last two times they have played, Djoker took a huge **** on him..

You've gotta look at past slow court efforts in their match ups... Federer played a truly inspired match to beat Djokovic in the 2011 French Open semis - when Djokovic was in his peak form.

Roll forward a year and Djokovic reversed the result this year - but, Federer didn't play nearly as inspired as in 2011 (nor did the slower 2012 balls help him in that respect). I'd say if both Federer and Djokovic made it to the Aussie final the biggest factor would be whether Federer had avoided an epic 5 setter in the previous match or two. If he had his chance of beating Djokovic at the AO would be arguably better than Nadal's. On the right day he can bring more in terms of strategy and un-playability than Nadal can.

The question is, how often can Federer produce that sort of genius tennis anymore - especially after a series of potentially tough matches? He did it at Wimbledon, but can he do it somewhere slower and hotter?

[batz]

Originally Posted by Hawkeye7

He better not win now, otherwise you might have robbed Fedex of a life of wealth and glamour.

Fedex is from Dundee - it's not possible for his life to be any more glamorous.

[smoledman]

Another reason is Roger is 3rd favorite according to the bookies, which takes all the pressure off. You really can't make the objective case for how he's playing with any more pressure. The only issue will be playing tough matches in the high heat.

[Feather]

Originally Posted by Bobby Jr

You've gotta look at past slow court efforts in their match ups... Federer played a truly inspired match to beat Djokovic in the 2011 French Open semis - when Djokovic was in his peak form.

Roll forward a year and Djokovic reversed the result this year - but, Federer didn't play nearly as inspired as in 2011 (nor did the slower 2012 balls help him in that respect). I'd say if both Federer and Djokovic made it to the Aussie final the biggest factor would be whether Federer had avoided an epic 5 setter in the previous match or two. If he had his chance of beating Djokovic at the AO would be arguably better than Nadal's. On the right day he can bring more in terms of strategy and un-playability than Nadal can.

The question is, how often can Federer produce that sort of genius tennis anymore - especially after a series of potentially tough matches? He did it at Wimbledon, but can he do it somewhere slower and hotter?

I think if he serves well he has his chances against Djokovic. It was his serve that made him lose his tie breaker in first set, and then from 5-2 he went down in second set. I mean AO 2011.

[batz]

Originally Posted by Feather

I have slight hopes in Federer. It's not like Djokovic is gonna win it like Rafa win RG. And Roger is certainly the third favorite after Djokovic and Murray, irrespective of his loss to Berdych in USO

I'd say better than slight. He's at best 5/1 with the bookies. For comparison, Murray is 3/1 at best.

So Bookies rate their chances as follows:

Nole 44%
Murray 25%
Sexi 17%

[Candide]

There's every chance Federer could meet Ferrer in the semi and Murray and Djokovic could be on the other side in a marathon slugfest. If that doesn't set Federer up for a good chance of taking home the trophy I don't know what does. Ferrer can't seem to trouble Fed yet he's had great runs in Oz. Murray and Djokovic are very close and will grind each other to dust. It's just one of many possibilities but the people who are caps lock DEFINITE that Djokovic can't be beat don't seem to understand the vagaries of professional sport.

[The_Order]

Originally Posted by Candide

There's every chance Federer could meet Ferrer in the semi and Murray and Djokovic could be on the other side in a marathon slugfest. If that doesn't set Federer up for a good chance of taking home the trophy I don't know what does. Ferrer can't seem to trouble Fed yet he's had great runs in Oz. Murray and Djokovic are very close and will grind each other to dust. It's just one of many possibilities but the people who are caps lock DEFINITE that Djokovic can't be beat don't seem to understand the vagaries of professional sport.

It's not that Novak can't be beaten there, it's just that if he plays Fed he will beat him, most likely in straights.

I have a feeling Fed will be gone before the QF stages this year though, it has to happen some time and with the lack of preparation he has going into it, he could have a tough time making it to the quarters.

Also, the AO has a history of throwing the #1 with #4 seed. Since 2007 only 08 and 10 had #1 and #3 in the same half.

I wouldn't be counting on Ferrer getting far either, Tsonga or Del Po can definitely be right up there.

[abmk]

Originally Posted by The_Order

He's not beating Djoker. Not a chance......

A better chance than nadal for sure >> who has zero chance ......

[abmk]

Originally Posted by 90's Clay

Australia and a indoor grass court is night and day. Grass (especially indoors grass, is Nole's worst surface and Roger's best.). Australia is Nole's best surface by far and one of Roger's worst now.

oh give it a break, neither of those 2 matches where like the beatdowns your idol received in the 2000/2001 USO finals ... All of the 6 sets were close and federer had his chances in almost all of them .......

[Hawkeye7]

Originally Posted by The_Order

He's not beating Djoker. Not a chance......

You're acting as if Djokovic is already in the final (which is the only round they could meet). It's very likely, but not a given by any means.

[abmk]

Originally Posted by Feather

The three setter at AO 2011 was not that one sided. First set was a tie breaker, second Roger was leading 5-2 and he lost, third he broke back to 4-4 and then lost. It was just eight points difference in the end. It wasn't that one sided as many make it out to be. It's NOT like Roger doesn't have any chances at all

neither was their 2008 match , federer was serving for the first set IIRC and was leading in the 3rd set breaker .....

granted djoker was playing at an extremely high level on both occasions, but federer just got his tactics and execution wrong on both occasions ...... he was junkballing djoker to death in the 2011 semi 2nd set and then decided to go back to trading groundstroke blows .....

again one of the reasons for my signature