wimbledon favorites question

[xan]

federer /thread.
but no seriously what interests me more as to why people generaly hold djokovic in such low regard there.
stuff like

Originally Posted by Feather

On the topic, I feel Djokovic will lose the QF streak in Wimbledon.

and similar (with all due respect to feather I have nothing against the dude, just was the latest comment I found)
like nole 1 wimbledon was a fluke and he is never winning it again etc etc.
then on the other hand you have people hyping Murray chances there and general consensus being that Murray is a big favorite there in the future (might as well be we don't know).
now help me realize why is that? in essence Murray is a 'poor man djokovic', without that killer instinct and necessary aggression he needs to truly propels to no.1
people say his game is better suited for grass. what? why? I get some claim he got better slice, but sure as hell slice alone is not winning games, let alone a slam. he doesn't have a killer serve, he doesn't serve and volley. he does everything nole does without a need to be aggressive (which should a decisive factor here)
I know nole was prone to upsets here in the past. with 'past' being the key word. you judge player chances taking their current or recent form (like a year prior). you could just as well say nadal is a favorite at rg but if he played it in current form it would be a far cry from it.

yeah ok, there is the 'home' soil part, that might help Murray, but not necessarily.
so is there something I am missing here? or what am I missing here? help me out people.

[Carsomyr]

I don't think anyone is suggesting Murray is a better player overall than Djokovic. But I believe he moves better on grass, which is a huge advantage to have.

[Steve0904]

It's nothing against Djokovic. It's just that grass is his worst surface. He's not bad on it, but he's not great either. If Djokovic were going to lose his QF streak anywhere, it would most likely be Wimbledon.

I think Murray is a better GC player than Djokovic. Of course Djokovic has a Wimbledon title, but I think Murray's game suits grass more, and he's done really well there consistently. Plus he beat Djokovic at Wimbledon in the Olympics rather convincingly.

And if they played today, I would pick Murray to beat Djokovic in a best of 5 at Wimbledon.

[mariecon]

Murray sucks on clay, Djoker sucks on grass (relatively speaking). Simple as that. Djoker won Wimbledon in 2011 because he was Superman for the first part of the year, but he had a tough go of it until the final when Nadal folded. Any other year and he probably would have lost that SF to Tsonga. Last year's grass results from Djoker are a pretty good indication of what kind of a grass player he really is.

[Feather]

Originally Posted by xan

federer /thread.
but no seriously what interests me more as to why people generaly hold djokovic in such low regard there.
stuff like and similar (with all due respect to feather I have nothing against the dude, just was the latest comment I found)
like nole 1 wimbledon was a fluke and he is never winning it again etc etc.
then on the other hand you have people hyping Murray chances there and general consensus being that Murray is a big favorite there in the future (might as well be we don't know).
now help me realize why is that? in essence Murray is a 'poor man djokovic', without that killer instinct and necessary aggression he needs to truly propels to no.1
people say his game is better suited for grass. what? why? I get some claim he got better slice, but sure as hell slice alone is not winning games, let alone a slam. he doesn't have a killer serve, he doesn't serve and volley. he does everything nole does without a need to be aggressive (which should a decisive factor here)
I know nole was prone to upsets here in the past. with 'past' being the key word. you judge player chances taking their current or recent form (like a year prior). you could just as well say nadal is a favorite at rg but if he played it in current form it would be a far cry from it.

yeah ok, there is the 'home' soil part, that might help Murray, but not necessarily.
so is there something I am missing here? or what am I missing here? help me out people.

I see that you have quoted me in your OP and I must say I am flattered.

I would like to add that I don't hold Djokovic in low regards. The topic was about who is gonna lose the QF streak, Roger, Novak and Murray were the options. Novak was very close to losing to Stan in AO 2013, and also he could have lost to Seppi in RG 2012. He was down match points against Tsonga in QF.. It's not exactly past as these matches were in the last one year. So I felt in Wimbledon, there are chances of him losing to someone and typed that...

I have never said Nole winning Wimbledon was fluke and I hope you didn't mean me there. I also never said that he won't win Wimbledon again. I feel Roger, Rafa, Murray all have better chances of winning Wimbledon this year.

I do feel that Murray and Federer have less chances of getting upset early.

[xan]

Originally Posted by mariecon

Last year's grass results from Djoker are a pretty good indication of what kind of a grass player he really is.

he lost to a federer in sf (nothing to be ashamed of), and to murray/delpo @ olimpics. which could have gone either way imho.

Originally Posted by Feather

I have never said Nole winning Wimbledon was fluke and I hope you didn't mean me there.

no, those were other ppl, (i can attirbute that to blind hatred, rahter than geniuine opinion). but like i said, people have this, dno how to put it, 'feeling' that murray is better overall on grass, or that nole is prone to upsets. i was just trying to figure out what that feeling is based upon. or is just that, a feeling.

[Warmaster]

Murray has an excellent grass record (7th since the ATP was formed in 1972, ahead of Nadal and Djokovic) and is always very solid at Wimbledon losing only to top players.

Murray's recent record at Wimbledon:
F (2012 - lost to Federer)
SF (2009, 2010, 2011 - lost to Roddick and Nadal(x2))
QF(2008 - lost to Nadal)

Djokovic's recent record at Wimbledon:

W (2011)
SF (2010, 2012 - lost to Berdych and Federer)
QF (2009 - lost to Haas)
R64 (2008 - lost to Safin)


Djokovic is obviously the more accomplished grass player at this point, but I genuinely believe Murray is the better grass player. In my opinion he has better movement on grass, has a better slice and a better first serve, all weapons that are extra important on grass. Djokovic was just lightyears ahead of Murray in the mental department.

[Flash O'Groove]

Originally Posted by Warmaster

Murray has an excellent grass record (7th all time, ahead of Nadal and Djokovic) and is always very solid at Wimbledon losing only to top players.

Murray's recent record at Wimbledon:
F (2012 - lost to Federer)
SF (2009, 2010, 2011 - lost to Roddick and Nadal(x2))
QF(2008 - lost to Nadal)

Djokovic's recent record at Wimbledon:

W (2011)
SF (2010, 2012 - lost to Berdych and Federer)
QF (2009 - lost to Haas)
R64 (2008 - lost to Safin)


Djokovic is obviously the more accomplished grass player at this point, but I genuinely believe Murray is the better grass player. In my opinion he has better movement on grass, has a better slice and a better first serve, all weapons that are extra important on grass. Djokovic was just lightyears ahead of Murray in the mental department.

7th all time on grass?

[Warmaster]

Originally Posted by Flash O'Groove

7th all time on grass?

Sorry, not all-time, since 1972. I'll correct it.

But the point I was trying to make is that he's right up there with the very best, despite not having won Wimbledon yet.

[Flash O'Groove]

Originally Posted by Warmaster

Sorry, not all-time, since 1972. I'll correct it.

But the point I was trying to make is that he's right up there with the very best, despite not having won Wimbledon yet.

OK but still. I feel winning Wimbledon is an important thing to do to be one of the best Wimbledon player! I'm curious to know your ranking to be honest.

[Warmaster]

Originally Posted by Flash O'Groove

OK but still. I feel winning Wimbledon is an important thing to do to be one of the best Wimbledon player! I'm curious to know your ranking to be honest.

Bear in mind I was talking about the grass W-L record and not the Wimbledon W-L record. If you look at the Wimbledon W-L record, Murray doesn't score as high yet, which makes sense.

And ofcourse winning Wimbledon is the most important thing to do, which is why I can't rate Murray too high yet, but I was merely replying as to why people assume Djokovic is more likely to lose before the QF in Wimbledon than Murray, by pointing out how it always takes a top player to take out the Scot.

Do you mean my personal top 10 wimbledon players? I'm not a huge fan of these lists as you just get endless discussion and it's almost impossible to compare different generations.

I'll give you my top 10 open era in alphabetical order:

Becker
Borg
Connors
Edberg
Federer
Laver
Mcenroe
Nadal
Newcombe
Sampras

[monfed]

Favourites -

1)Murray
2)Ralph(could be 1 if he wins RG)
3)Fed-Djoker(tied because on the given day anyone can win)

[Phonco]

I think it might be related to his footing, the quick/low bounce and the 'bad' bounces.

Clay is similar in terms of footing and bad bounces, but it benefits Djokovic by providing slower shots and higher bounce. Hard courts can be fast, and low bouncing as well, but the big bonus is the secure footing and consistent ball bounces. On grass he gets neither bonus and I think that tends to expose his weakness.

In terms of tools, I think Murray might be a better grass player because he has more variety in his game. I see Murray as a tricky type of player that likes to trip up other players while also having a great baseline game to fall back on. It's probably easier to mess with a players rhythm on grass than it is with other surfaces.

[Fiji]

Djokovic overachieved by winning Wimbledon. I doubt he will win it again.

[mariecon]

Originally Posted by monfed

Favourites -

1)Murray
2)Ralph(could be 1 if he wins RG)
3)Fed-Djoker(tied because on the given day anyone can win)

huh? You put Nadal above Fed/Djoker to win Wimbledon? What are you smoking? The guy may not even win RG this year. Remember the knees? Even if the knees are perfectly alright there's no way he's winning Wimbledon after being away for 7+ months and not having won a non-clay tournament in over 2 years. Unless of course you know something we don't know.

[DropShotArtist]

Favourite all depends on Fed's status. If Fed is well rested he has another good shot this year. Else it's all Djoker's.

[5555]

Bookmakers say Djokovic is the first favorite http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/wi...mbledon/winner

[monfed]

Originally Posted by mariecon

huh? You put Nadal above Fed/Djoker to win Wimbledon? What are you smoking? The guy may not even win RG this year. Remember the knees? Even if the knees are perfectly alright there's no way he's winning Wimbledon after being away for 7+ months and not having won a non-clay tournament in over 2 years. Unless of course you know something we don't know.

Ralph is extremely formidable on grass. It took a godlike performance from Rosol to oust him and even that took 5 sets. That 5th set is probably the highest level of pure hitting I've ever seen tbh,sheer brilliance. I doubt something like that will ever be repeated.

Murray dismantled Federer on grass and even though Fed was spent, he could've put up a better fight against someone he very recently brought to tears. That particular match was a glaring indication of Fed's decline in movement on grass, he could barely get to his FH side when stretched and his timing was off too.

Fed's old now, be honest who would you put your money on if Fed faced Murray/Ralph in Wimby? Murray seems to have figured out Fed and Fedal matches on slow,high bouncing grass kinda favours Ralph.

Only against Djokovic will I favour Federer, but even that could go either way on a given day, what if Fed has a bad serving day,for example?

Ralph v/s Murray 2.0 could be the most interesting matchup at Wimby if it happens.

Still,sticking to my favourites list.

[mariecon]

Originally Posted by monfed

Ralph is extremely formidable on grass. It took a godlike performance from Rosol to oust him and even that took 5 sets. That 5th set is probably the highest level of pure hitting I've ever seen tbh,sheer brilliance. I doubt something like that will ever be repeated.

Murray dismantled Federer on grass and even though Fed was spent, he could've put up a better fight against someone he very recently brought to tears. That particular match was a glaring indication of Fed's decline in movement on grass, he could barely get to his FH side when stretched and his timing was off too.

Fed's old now, be honest who would you put your money on if Fed faced Murray/Ralph in Wimby? Murray seems to have figured out Fed and Fedal matches on slow,high bouncing grass kinda favours Ralph.

Only against Djokovic will I favour Federer, but even that could go either way on a given day, what if Fed has a bad serving day,for example?

Ralph v/s Murray 2.0 could be the most interesting matchup at Wimby if it happens.

Still,sticking to my favourites list.

Nope..Federer dismantled Murray at Wimbledon. Or are you forgetting that? I would put my money on Federer. Like I said, Nadal hasn't won a non-clay tournament since 2010. That alone is reason to doubt he will ever win Wimbledon. Wimbledon is Fed's to lose.

[kishnabe]

Originally Posted by 5555

Bookmakers say Djokovic is the first favorite http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/wi...mbledon/winner

Bookmakers first picks usually are wrong just like in this case.