Match-up: Ljubicic vs Hrbaty

unjugon · 05-17-2006, 02:59 PM

Here is my first match-up analysis. I dunno if this idea has been beaten to death, so excuse me if it has. If people like it I´ll post more, maybe weekly. You guys can post yours also.
-----------------------------------------------------------

The matchup Ljubicic vs Hrbaty is pretty interesting. Their head to head says that Ljubicic won all 5 encounters before he turned into a great player and placed himself comfortably in the top 10. After that point, Hrbaty has won. 2 matches, at Davis Cup last year, and at Rome 2006.
They were very tough matches that could have gone either way, but, in the end, you´d expect the higher ranked player to come up with the win.

IMO, this is not a good match-up for Ljubicic. Yes, he´ll win some...but he is the better player of the two, easily.
I think it is a combination of Ljubicic not being a great returner and, all in all, not winning many return games, and Hrbaty being the opposite.
When Ljubicic wins a set, it is normally by 6-3 or 6-4, 7-5 or 7-6. In any case, he relies on his serve not being broken. And him breaking once, or none at all -winning in a tiebreak. His favourite score is something like 7-6 6-4.
You can´t argue with the results, this guy is established nowadays inside the top 5. His plan works.

What happens is that versing Hrbaty, his serve gets broken once every set, by default, if not 2 times. Now, Hrbaty on serve is nothing special. You´ll see him lose 6-2 sets against better baseline players with good return-games. But Ljubicic isn´t one of these.
Be it to thirty, or after deuce -doesn´t matter how close, Hrbaty holds his service games most of the times.
Basically, a set between these two can have up to a few breaks. Hrbaty gets one -> Ljubicic gets one -tiebreak- or none. Hrbaty gets 2 -> Ljubicic gets 2 -tiebreak- or just 1.

This seems kinda basic, so let´s scratch a little more. Asuming the above premises -Ljubicic being a better player, but Hrbaty with the service<-->return games advantage- the matches are likely to go the distance. This is interesting because Ljubicic does dispose of most opponents in 2 sets -or 3-4 in best of 5. It´s not often that we see Ljubicic in tight spots. In a nutshell: Ljubicic does get tight in these situations. OK, he is not a choker per se, but you´d definitely expect someone of his quality to better handle pressure.
One can see now that the Hrbaty-Ljubicic matchup is a 50/50 affair, which favors the lower ranked player.

If we get into the technical analysis, we´ll reach the same conclusions.
Ljubicic first serve still owns, but Hrbaty less than others. His second is returned with a solid, flat shot. From then on, Ljubicic is on the defensive -it´s subtle, but he is the one behind in the rallies- as his topspin strokes sit up nicely for Hrbaty´s flatter ones. Again, then you could argue that the Spaniards´ topspin shots mean Hrbaty is quickly on to them and dominates the matches. But these are natural baseliners. They have half the serve of Ljubicic, but their shots are often safer -in the sense that they are more reliable-, or simply better hit, even if Ljubo has come a long way in this aspect.

So, in the rallies, Hrbaty has the advantage, just because of the style of shots. Hrbaty has fluid, hard-hit groundstrokes, Good technique. His game is based around them. However, he suffers from the Enqvist syndrome: he is stiff like a stick, and often finds himself helpless against opponents who mix their game up with slices, net aproaches, dropshots. Note how Ljubicic isn´t noted for his slices, volleys, or dropshots.

He rallies with Hrbaty, and wins some points. He still wins most of his service games, if more than ever just for his monster serve. And still, Hrbaty, as a good returner, gets some of those serves back in play.
I just don´t think Ljubicic is comfortable in this match-up.

JackRabbit · 05-17-2006, 03:51 PM

That's a great analysis! However, while it looks good on paper, you can see that Ljubicic leads Hrbaty 5-2 (http://www.atptennis.com/en/players/...layer2=hrbaty). You must not be accounting for some factors. All the same, I would love to see more of these!

diegaa · 05-17-2006, 06:36 PM

Great post Rubén... I would also like to read more of yours "match up posts".
Keep it up!!!

Tchocky · 05-17-2006, 08:46 PM

What match up are you taking about? Are you talking about their last meeting in Rome or just in general?

unjugon · 05-18-2006, 03:19 AM

Hahaha, thx Diego for the support =)

I am talking match-ups in general, not invidual matches. It´s interesting that Ljubicic owned Hrbaty when Ljubicic was an "average" player as to say. My analysis is more oriented to the state of the match up these days and why Hrbaty is bothersome to Ljubo.

tennus · 05-18-2006, 04:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by unjugon

Hahaha, thx Diego for the support =)

I am talking match-ups in general, not invidual matches. It´s interesting that Ljubicic owned Hrbaty when Ljubicic was an "average" player as to say. My analysis is more oriented to the state of the match up these days and why Hrbaty is bothersome to Ljubo.

Great post, you make some interesting points here. I watched their most recent encounter in Rome and thought the same, Hrbaty played more adventurously and Luby looked quite tight. One thing Hrbaty did well was give Luby no rythmn. He varied his serve well and attacked with that flat forehand at will. He was far more prepared to approach the net even though he didn't volley that well. It didn't matter as Luby made far too many errors. I believe the total unforced error count for that match was shown as 92 ! When you look at the top players being knocked over it is quite amazing how often it's by a player not really in their class, yet they consistently beat other top 20 players. The unknown has a huge advantage these days being able to go to video school on the top player.

Mikael · 05-19-2006, 03:46 PM

Hey man, cool analysis, it's definitely a fun read for tennis nuts. Maybe your missing element (which could account for a lot of Ljubicic's 5-2 h2h advantage) is that Hrbaty with his style of play is prone to making a lot of UEs on a bad day. You mention the "Enqvist syndrome", which is a fun concept, but you only base it around inflexibility of gameplan. I'd also include "the ability to self destruct through UEs" in that syndrome, especially if the other guy doesn't give too much rhythm (and where's the rhythm when Ljubo's serve is on?)

Keep it up man, looking forward to some more posts like that.

05-17-2006, 02:59 PM	#1
unjugon Rookie Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 332	Match-up: Ljubicic vs Hrbaty Here is my first match-up analysis. I dunno if this idea has been beaten to death, so excuse me if it has. If people like it I´ll post more, maybe weekly. You guys can post yours also. ----------------------------------------------------------- The matchup Ljubicic vs Hrbaty is pretty interesting. Their head to head says that Ljubicic won all 5 encounters before he turned into a great player and placed himself comfortably in the top 10. After that point, Hrbaty has won. 2 matches, at Davis Cup last year, and at Rome 2006. They were very tough matches that could have gone either way, but, in the end, you´d expect the higher ranked player to come up with the win. IMO, this is not a good match-up for Ljubicic. Yes, he´ll win some...but he is the better player of the two, easily. I think it is a combination of Ljubicic not being a great returner and, all in all, not winning many return games, and Hrbaty being the opposite. When Ljubicic wins a set, it is normally by 6-3 or 6-4, 7-5 or 7-6. In any case, he relies on his serve not being broken. And him breaking once, or none at all -winning in a tiebreak. His favourite score is something like 7-6 6-4. You can´t argue with the results, this guy is established nowadays inside the top 5. His plan works. What happens is that versing Hrbaty, his serve gets broken once every set, by default, if not 2 times. Now, Hrbaty on serve is nothing special. You´ll see him lose 6-2 sets against better baseline players with good return-games. But Ljubicic isn´t one of these. Be it to thirty, or after deuce -doesn´t matter how close, Hrbaty holds his service games most of the times. Basically, a set between these two can have up to a few breaks. Hrbaty gets one -> Ljubicic gets one -tiebreak- or none. Hrbaty gets 2 -> Ljubicic gets 2 -tiebreak- or just 1. This seems kinda basic, so let´s scratch a little more. Asuming the above premises -Ljubicic being a better player, but Hrbaty with the service<-->return games advantage- the matches are likely to go the distance. This is interesting because Ljubicic does dispose of most opponents in 2 sets -or 3-4 in best of 5. It´s not often that we see Ljubicic in tight spots. In a nutshell: Ljubicic does get tight in these situations. OK, he is not a choker per se, but you´d definitely expect someone of his quality to better handle pressure. One can see now that the Hrbaty-Ljubicic matchup is a 50/50 affair, which favors the lower ranked player. If we get into the technical analysis, we´ll reach the same conclusions. Ljubicic first serve still owns, but Hrbaty less than others. His second is returned with a solid, flat shot. From then on, Ljubicic is on the defensive -it´s subtle, but he is the one behind in the rallies- as his topspin strokes sit up nicely for Hrbaty´s flatter ones. Again, then you could argue that the Spaniards´ topspin shots mean Hrbaty is quickly on to them and dominates the matches. But these are natural baseliners. They have half the serve of Ljubicic, but their shots are often safer -in the sense that they are more reliable-, or simply better hit, even if Ljubo has come a long way in this aspect. So, in the rallies, Hrbaty has the advantage, just because of the style of shots. Hrbaty has fluid, hard-hit groundstrokes, Good technique. His game is based around them. However, he suffers from the Enqvist syndrome: he is stiff like a stick, and often finds himself helpless against opponents who mix their game up with slices, net aproaches, dropshots. Note how Ljubicic isn´t noted for his slices, volleys, or dropshots. He rallies with Hrbaty, and wins some points. He still wins most of his service games, if more than ever just for his monster serve. And still, Hrbaty, as a good returner, gets some of those serves back in play. I just don´t think Ljubicic is comfortable in this match-up.

05-17-2006, 06:36 PM	#3
diegaa Hall Of Fame Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: somewhere in between Posts: 4,092	Great post Rubén... I would also like to read more of yours "match up posts". Keep it up!!! __________________ "I came back from retirement 'cause players get laid more" Gastón Gaudio. "Grass is for cows". Idem.

05-17-2006, 08:46 PM	#4
Tchocky Hall Of Fame Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: The OC Posts: 3,801	What match up are you taking about? Are you talking about their last meeting in Rome or just in general? __________________ The significant problems we face cannot be solved by the same level of thinking that created them.

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