The Shape Of Things To Come: Denis Shapovalov!
- Thread starter stringertom
- Start date
okdude1992
Hall of Fame
That was not the prettiest tennis. But Shapo gets it done. Should be around #130 on monday.
-NN-
G.O.A.T.
May the best Shapovalov win.
Meles
Bionic Poster
I must demur. Right off watching these highlights Shaps looks very quick and light on his feet.
stringertom
Bionic Poster
Second Challenger title, despite letting his foot off the gas after that 5-0 lead in the first.
On to Granby. He is the #4 seed there and could match up vs Polansky again in the SFs. The Hat plays a qualifier 1R and then the winner of Quiroz/Bhambri in 2R if he advances.
On to Granby. He is the #4 seed there and could match up vs Polansky again in the SFs. The Hat plays a qualifier 1R and then the winner of Quiroz/Bhambri in 2R if he advances.
Joseph_K
Hall of Fame
A workmanlike win, 7-5, 6-3, on Wednesday evening for Shapo in the first round of the Granby Challenger in his home country. His opponent was the 31-year-old Australian qualfier Marinko Matosevic, who has been as high as no. 39 in the singles rankings, but is currently no. 390.
Shapo served very well throughout the match and didn't face a single break point in any of his service games. Matosevic, on the other hand, was lucky not to drop serve serve in the eighth game of the first set when 0-40 down. Shapo finally broke through with the Australian seving at 5-6 in that set.
In the second set Shapo also always had his nose in front and broke again to lead 4-2 before another comfortable hold. Seving for the match at 5-3 the young Canadian achieved what wss probably a first for him when he hit four aces in a row to seal victory.
Later on Thursday Shapo is due to take on the Indian player Yuki Bhambri whose current singles ranking is no. 212.
J.
Shapo served very well throughout the match and didn't face a single break point in any of his service games. Matosevic, on the other hand, was lucky not to drop serve serve in the eighth game of the first set when 0-40 down. Shapo finally broke through with the Australian seving at 5-6 in that set.
In the second set Shapo also always had his nose in front and broke again to lead 4-2 before another comfortable hold. Seving for the match at 5-3 the young Canadian achieved what wss probably a first for him when he hit four aces in a row to seal victory.
Later on Thursday Shapo is due to take on the Indian player Yuki Bhambri whose current singles ranking is no. 212.
J.
stringertom
Bionic Poster
Shapo taking the court now vs Bhambti in Granby. I may watch this if the ATP website has live coverage.
gogo
Legend
Here is the livestream link:
https://livestream.com/accounts/5057055/events/7621211
Denis already down an early break. He hit a couple too many into the net. But this match looks like it will have more flow than the last match he played.
stringertom
Bionic Poster
The Hat advances 4-6 6-0 6-3!
After a lackluster start, broken at 1-1, Denis could not level the first set with very clean play by Bhambri enough to nurse that early break through the set.
The early break in the second set went to Denis for a 2-0 lead and he seemed energized by that to play nearly flawless tennis for the bagel.
His aggressive play from the second set carried on for Shapo in the third but Bhambri had the answers until the eighth game. The break at 3-4 was a mixture of great shots by Denis and some UEs from the Indian. Denis then served it out FTW.
After a lackluster start, broken at 1-1, Denis could not level the first set with very clean play by Bhambri enough to nurse that early break through the set.
The early break in the second set went to Denis for a 2-0 lead and he seemed energized by that to play nearly flawless tennis for the bagel.
His aggressive play from the second set carried on for Shapo in the third but Bhambri had the answers until the eighth game. The break at 3-4 was a mixture of great shots by Denis and some UEs from the Indian. Denis then served it out FTW.
gogo
Legend
And Denis moves on to the quarters in Granby....46 60 63. Faces Mackie Mac next, I believe.
gogo
Legend
Do you have any positive comment to make? or any other substantive comment to make about how either of the players played? (I'm too tired to diagnose.)
Well then, Denis takes the match 63 46 63.
(I'm
(P.S. We might have some geography in common. SWO!)
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stringertom
Bionic Poster
The Hat advances to a SF rematch with last week's final opponent Polansky, 6-3 4-6 6-3.
I only caught the third set, which featured Shapo storming through the last three games FTW. It was a lot of first strike tennis with his serve/FH combo stronger than Double Mac's. He needed that aggressive approach to break through and avoid longer rallies that he was coming up short on. Good returns in both of the concluding breaks were the difference.
Hope Shapo can recover after these consecutive three-setters. Polansky cruised today vs Uchiyama.
I only caught the third set, which featured Shapo storming through the last three games FTW. It was a lot of first strike tennis with his serve/FH combo stronger than Double Mac's. He needed that aggressive approach to break through and avoid longer rallies that he was coming up short on. Good returns in both of the concluding breaks were the difference.
Hope Shapo can recover after these consecutive three-setters. Polansky cruised today vs Uchiyama.
gogo
Legend
I think Denis needs to step up his game, or else he won't make it past Polansky.
(and now that he has withdrawn from CitiOpen qualies, in order to stay in this tourney, I think he is feeling the pressure.)
In any case, congrats to Le Chapeau!
bogdan101
Semi-Pro
It can be seen shortly after the 30 min mark here, no idea why the chair ump didn't override such an egregious error:
https://livestream.com/accounts/5057055/events/7623150/videos/160455429
Denis was sloppy in the first 2 sets,lots of UE's and could have easily lost in straight sets. Much better play in the last 3 games of the third set.
Sysyphus
Talk Tennis Guru
The poster was making a wry reference to one of those hall-of-fame TTW classics when someone earnestly rated a video of Polansky practicing as a 4.5.
No player is safe though. LeeD once described the player in a practice video as "4.5+." Seemed to miss the fact that the practicing player was Roger Federer.
The elite weekend warriors of TTW can be a harsh jury.
bogdan101
Semi-Pro
Cool!.. Where are you located?
Serving at 2-5 down, Shapovalov starts the service game with two doublefaults. Later in the game he misses an easy forehand to set up break points, and gets broken on probably the first good point Polansky's played that entire game.
If Shaps doesn't step it up, the rest of this match will go by very, very quickly.
If Shaps doesn't step it up, the rest of this match will go by very, very quickly.
Chanwan
G.O.A.T.
Link?
Sysyphus
Talk Tennis Guru
nearly all challenger matches are sent here and the ATP homepage
https://livestream.com/ATP
edit: i see the match is over and he lost. Possible to watch back nevertheless.
Chanwan
G.O.A.T.
thanks, had forgotten. It's been a while since I watched a challenger.
Sysyphus
Talk Tennis Guru
It's very cool of the ATP to broadcast so much of the challenger tour for free I think. Lot of good tennis, and I like the camera angle they tend to use. More court level feel to it than TV broadcasts.
Chanwan
G.O.A.T.
All true. And yes, it's closer to being on court.
stringertom
Bionic Poster
Watching much of his last two matches, I could see Shapo was lagging a bit. Today's loss wasn't a big surprise.
Let's hope he's fully recharged for Montreal.
Let's hope he's fully recharged for Montreal.
gogo
Legend
You are definitely not an outcast! Everyone is welcome here. The more the merrier! So come on in and sit right down.
Regarding your question, I am probably least qualified to answer, but that won't stop me. I think Shapo is the better prospect.
Rublev is exciting and aggressive and talented, but I wonder if he is missing a few weapons and he has been spotty developing his track record over the past year (until recently, but let's wait to see if that can continue). I would love to see "Angrey" deliver on his promising talent. He is so exciting to watch when he is on. Does he have enough weapons beyond his obvious power shot?
Denis, has all kinds of weapons, many of which are still in the development phase so there is so much further upside on many fronts. His serve is already very solid. His shot choice isn't always very good. He just goes on instinct. Experience and good coaching will help him improve there. He has lots of room to improve his net play. One area that concerns me is that he can be lacklustre in small tournaments were the atmosphere doesn't help him get pumped up. Perhaps once he gets his ranking up enough that he is primarily playing in the bigger tournaments, then that will alleviate the problem to a certain extent?
Just my 2 cents. I'd love to hear yours.
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-NN-
G.O.A.T.
I feel the same on Shapovalov, in that he is a very instinctive player and is building his game in a holistic manner, where everything is developing everywhere steadily. That's why I like him. He's in the pure shot-maker mold and is unpredictable and exciting to watch, but on top of that it's not just smoke and mirrors as there's real substance and effectiveness and firepower in his game. He's fierce in his play and energy.
Rublev looks a lot more limited to me and only knows one way which is to spit "straight fire" in baseline exchanges in the hopes of mauling his opponent. And when he's on it's blistering and there's blatant talent and ability there. He'll need to develop much more nuance to his game to be successful in a bigger way on the tour.
Both have potential but I definitely prefer Shapovalov in terms of how he plays and I think he has a bit more upside than Rublev too.
I enjoyed watching Xtina on The Voice back in the day.
Rublev looks a lot more limited to me and only knows one way which is to spit "straight fire" in baseline exchanges in the hopes of mauling his opponent. And when he's on it's blistering and there's blatant talent and ability there. He'll need to develop much more nuance to his game to be successful in a bigger way on the tour.
Both have potential but I definitely prefer Shapovalov in terms of how he plays and I think he has a bit more upside than Rublev too.
I enjoyed watching Xtina on The Voice back in the day.
D
Deleted member 743561
Guest
Definitely not the Andy Dick version?
gogo
Legend
Same place you are.
Great place.
So there's 3 of us then?
metsman
G.O.A.T.
when in doubt go with the guy with the bigger serve, forehand, and better footwork. I like Shap but he doesn't have any huge weapons yet.
bogdan101
Semi-Pro
Sysyphus
Talk Tennis Guru
@gogo @-NN-
Good to see someone pushing the Money train in this Shapo land
Warning: long rambling poast ahead:
To add some counterpoint (read: Russian jockstrapping) to the pro-Shapo sentiments from gogo and Nate above, I might add some data points I think favor Rublev:
– Shapo hasn't really gained his results against the toughest fields. A lot of the challengers ha has entered aren't the most stacked ones, and a lot of his résumé is made up of matches against players in the 150–500 range. In contrast, Rublev has made a habit of entering relatively tough fields, arguably to a fault, entering lots of main tour events and stacked challengers as soon as he went pro. This choice has probably made his ranking progress less linear than it could have been, but he has gotten to mature against solid players, the fruits of which may be showing these days.
To illustrate, if we look at top 150 opposition, Shapo has only played them 20 times in his career thus far. And the vast bulk of these are in the lower range of this ranking segment, hardly any top 50. In contrast, Rublev played top 150 opponents a total of 31 times in 2015 alone, 26 times in 2016, 89 times in total. This also includes plenty of top 50 players. Enormous difference, whether we account for age or not. Moreover, Rublev's success and stats against them are more favorable. Which brings me to:
– Shapo has an alarming weakness in his return game. I used to moan for a long time about Rublev's returning, but Shapo is in another dimension. On average against all opposition, he's winning 35.8% of return points in the past year, which is close to the worst return numbers of the youngsters I've checked. Rublev by comparison is at 37.9%, which isn't anything to jump through the roof for, but more acceptable. But, if we look at matches against top 150 opposition for the same time frame, Rublev actually improves to 38.4%, whereas Denis's numbers plummet to an atrocious 28.3%. As @falstaff78 has argued cogently, players only tend to improve their return ability so much as they grow older, and a big weakness in the return game is a tough achilles' heel. But, given his few matches on this level the sample is small, and Shapo could be maybe young enough that huge jumps on return are possible. Maybe Falstaff has thoughts on that?
– In terms of serving, Denis is very impressive and actually doing slightly better than Andrey also against the top 150. While Rublev has more pace on tap of the two, Denis is hitting spots better and using his lefty advantage to great effect. Nevertheless, while he'll improve his serve more, given his size he'll never be a full blown serve bot. Players who have a modicum of balance between serve and return game tend to have higher potential ceilings than the serve- or return bots.
Of course, these stats of what they've done thus far don't tell us how they'll develop in the future. But I think it illustrates the difference in what lies behind their rankings. Shapo obviously has tremendous upside, and I wouldn't be surprised to see either one have the better career. Nevertheless, I put my money on Money's more adult game and suspect Shapo will have more serious holes to overcome (return + erratic single-hander).
Good to see someone pushing the Money train in this Shapo land
Warning: long rambling poast ahead:
To add some counterpoint (read: Russian jockstrapping) to the pro-Shapo sentiments from gogo and Nate above, I might add some data points I think favor Rublev:
– Shapo hasn't really gained his results against the toughest fields. A lot of the challengers ha has entered aren't the most stacked ones, and a lot of his résumé is made up of matches against players in the 150–500 range. In contrast, Rublev has made a habit of entering relatively tough fields, arguably to a fault, entering lots of main tour events and stacked challengers as soon as he went pro. This choice has probably made his ranking progress less linear than it could have been, but he has gotten to mature against solid players, the fruits of which may be showing these days.
To illustrate, if we look at top 150 opposition, Shapo has only played them 20 times in his career thus far. And the vast bulk of these are in the lower range of this ranking segment, hardly any top 50. In contrast, Rublev played top 150 opponents a total of 31 times in 2015 alone, 26 times in 2016, 89 times in total. This also includes plenty of top 50 players. Enormous difference, whether we account for age or not. Moreover, Rublev's success and stats against them are more favorable. Which brings me to:
– Shapo has an alarming weakness in his return game. I used to moan for a long time about Rublev's returning, but Shapo is in another dimension. On average against all opposition, he's winning 35.8% of return points in the past year, which is close to the worst return numbers of the youngsters I've checked. Rublev by comparison is at 37.9%, which isn't anything to jump through the roof for, but more acceptable. But, if we look at matches against top 150 opposition for the same time frame, Rublev actually improves to 38.4%, whereas Denis's numbers plummet to an atrocious 28.3%. As @falstaff78 has argued cogently, players only tend to improve their return ability so much as they grow older, and a big weakness in the return game is a tough achilles' heel. But, given his few matches on this level the sample is small, and Shapo could be maybe young enough that huge jumps on return are possible. Maybe Falstaff has thoughts on that?
– In terms of serving, Denis is very impressive and actually doing slightly better than Andrey also against the top 150. While Rublev has more pace on tap of the two, Denis is hitting spots better and using his lefty advantage to great effect. Nevertheless, while he'll improve his serve more, given his size he'll never be a full blown serve bot. Players who have a modicum of balance between serve and return game tend to have higher potential ceilings than the serve- or return bots.
Of course, these stats of what they've done thus far don't tell us how they'll develop in the future. But I think it illustrates the difference in what lies behind their rankings. Shapo obviously has tremendous upside, and I wouldn't be surprised to see either one have the better career. Nevertheless, I put my money on Money's more adult game and suspect Shapo will have more serious holes to overcome (return + erratic single-hander).
-NN-
G.O.A.T.
Based on what little I've seen I got the impression that Shap serves a bit better, Rublev hits the forehand a little better and that footwork is pretty even. My viewing has been limited.
-NN-
G.O.A.T.
@gogo @-NN-
Good to see someone pushing the Money train in this Shapo land
Warning: long rambling poast ahead:
To add some counterpoint (read: Russian jockstrapping) to the pro-Shapo sentiments from gogo and Nate above, I might add some data points I think favor Rublev:
– Shapo hasn't really gained his results against the toughest fields. A lot of the challengers ha has entered aren't the most stacked ones, and a lot of his résumé is made up of matches against players in the 150–500 range. In contrast, Rublev has made a habit of entering relatively tough fields, arguably to a fault, entering lots of main tour events and stacked challengers as soon as he went pro. This choice has probably made his ranking progress less linear than it could have been, but he has gotten to mature against solid players, the fruits of which may be showing these days.
To illustrate, if we look at top 150 opposition, Shapo has only played them 20 times in his career thus far. And the vast bulk of these are in the lower range of this ranking segment, hardly any top 50. In contrast, Rublev played top 150 opponents a total of 31 times in 2015 alone, 26 times in 2016, 89 times in total. This also includes plenty of top 50 players. Enormous difference, whether we account for age or not. Moreover, Rublev's success and stats against them are more favorable. Which brings me to:
– Shapo has an alarming weakness in his return game. I used to moan for a long time about Rublev's returning, but Shapo is in another dimension. On average against all opposition, he's winning 35.8% of return points in the past year, which is close to the worst return numbers of the youngsters I've checked. Rublev by comparison is at 37.9%, which isn't anything to jump through the roof for, but more acceptable. But, if we look at matches against top 150 opposition for the same time frame, Rublev actually improves to 38.4%, whereas Denis's numbers plummet to an atrocious 28.3%. As @falstaff78 has argued cogently, players only tend to improve their return ability so much as they grow older, and a big weakness in the return game is a tough achilles' heel. But, given his few matches on this level the sample is small, and Shapo could be maybe young enough that huge jumps on return are possible. Maybe Falstaff has thoughts on that?
– In terms of serving, Denis is very impressive and actually doing slightly better than Andrey also against the top 150. While Rublev has more pace on tap of the two, Denis is hitting spots better and using his lefty advantage to great effect. Nevertheless, while he'll improve his serve more, given his size he'll never be a full blown serve bot. Players who have a modicum of balance between serve and return game tend to have higher potential ceilings than the serve- or return bots.
Of course, these stats of what they've done thus far don't tell us how they'll develop in the future. But I think it illustrates the difference in what lies behind their rankings. Shapo obviously has tremendous upside, and I wouldn't be surprised to see either one have the better career. Nevertheless, I put my money on Money's more adult game and suspect Shapo will have more serious holes to overcome (return + erratic single-hander).
Where are you drawing your stats from, BTW? Interesting and significant data on the return there. I agree that it's close to call and it wouldn't be surprising either way to see one do better than the other. Are we at the stage where we can be confident that at least one of the two will see Slam success and perhaps even both? Would you be surprised if both "failed".
Also, there's more dynamism in Shapo's game but both are guilty of "smack the **** out of the ball" syndrome. Neither have developed a sense of court awareness and understanding on the level of say, a Zverev, for example.
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Sysyphus
Talk Tennis Guru
Stats from Tennis Abstract.
Personally I'm not at the point where I take it for granted that one out of them will be a slam champ, but I'd still back them to make it. The tour in the coming 5–10 years seems so open that many scenarios are possible. Would you be surprised?
-NN-
G.O.A.T.
I haven't been surveying the landscape so keenly over the last couple of years regarding the very young talents, but I see what's happening on the main tour and where its headed and the sort of landscape which will develop, with old shattered relics of kingdoms and a relatively desolate and vast land ready to have new kingdoms built upon it by those who dare. The question then becomes correctly evaluating and predicting the paths of these very young potential future stars of the game, which is a tricky business at the best of times. There's an "it" factor when I watch Shapovalov and I'm a big fan of Rublev's forehand. Then again, there are many impressive forehands on the tour and I'm not sure Rublev's will be any better than those of Sock or Edmund or Kyrgios or others I'm possibly forgetting, so I'm more drawn to the overall aura I feel from Shapovalov's game which is similar (though different) to that which I get from also watching Zverev or Kyrgios (who I still believe in). Rublev looks more ordinary but there's not too much debating with the stats, I suppose. I get a sort of Berdych vibe from Rublev somehow (in terms of feeling ordinary), and perennial top-10 would hardly be a bad future, and in the next era that could easily yield a Slam or more.
You'll have to give me another 6 months of more keenly watching this next bunch before I can say whether or not I'd be surprised if both fail to win a Slam. I need a deeper and clearer look.
If both Zverev and Kyrgios fail to win a Slam I'd be VERY surprised, but that's a pretty safe bet at this stage. Pretty sure Zverev will win a Slam, minimum.
stringertom
Bionic Poster
Shapo wins at least one Wimby title; Tsitsipas will also win there; Zverev, Ruud (at RG only), Rublev, ADF, FAA and Kuhn will battle it out with them in other years and on the other two surfaces. None of them will dominate like Fedalovic.
-NN-
G.O.A.T.
I only hope they have good health. Fed's gen were pretty strong but many of the best players had quite short primes, whether it be through injury or through not having the most dedicated and consistent work ethic. As for Ruud, I need to see more. I know you and Sysyphus have highlighted a very specific concern for his game but the right coaching over the next 5 years could make a monumental difference.
stringertom
Bionic Poster
He just saved BP in the opening game vs Paul with one of three aces. A good start.
metsman
G.O.A.T.
also Money has more physical development left in the tank which will help with the serve. Shap looks to be pretty filled out already.@gogo @-NN-
Good to see someone pushing the Money train in this Shapo land
Warning: long rambling poast ahead:
To add some counterpoint (read: Russian jockstrapping) to the pro-Shapo sentiments from gogo and Nate above, I might add some data points I think favor Rublev:
– Shapo hasn't really gained his results against the toughest fields. A lot of the challengers ha has entered aren't the most stacked ones, and a lot of his résumé is made up of matches against players in the 150–500 range. In contrast, Rublev has made a habit of entering relatively tough fields, arguably to a fault, entering lots of main tour events and stacked challengers as soon as he went pro. This choice has probably made his ranking progress less linear than it could have been, but he has gotten to mature against solid players, the fruits of which may be showing these days.
To illustrate, if we look at top 150 opposition, Shapo has only played them 20 times in his career thus far. And the vast bulk of these are in the lower range of this ranking segment, hardly any top 50. In contrast, Rublev played top 150 opponents a total of 31 times in 2015 alone, 26 times in 2016, 89 times in total. This also includes plenty of top 50 players. Enormous difference, whether we account for age or not. Moreover, Rublev's success and stats against them are more favorable. Which brings me to:
– Shapo has an alarming weakness in his return game. I used to moan for a long time about Rublev's returning, but Shapo is in another dimension. On average against all opposition, he's winning 35.8% of return points in the past year, which is close to the worst return numbers of the youngsters I've checked. Rublev by comparison is at 37.9%, which isn't anything to jump through the roof for, but more acceptable. But, if we look at matches against top 150 opposition for the same time frame, Rublev actually improves to 38.4%, whereas Denis's numbers plummet to an atrocious 28.3%. As @falstaff78 has argued cogently, players only tend to improve their return ability so much as they grow older, and a big weakness in the return game is a tough achilles' heel. But, given his few matches on this level the sample is small, and Shapo could be maybe young enough that huge jumps on return are possible. Maybe Falstaff has thoughts on that?
– In terms of serving, Denis is very impressive and actually doing slightly better than Andrey also against the top 150. While Rublev has more pace on tap of the two, Denis is hitting spots better and using his lefty advantage to great effect. Nevertheless, while he'll improve his serve more, given his size he'll never be a full blown serve bot. Players who have a modicum of balance between serve and return game tend to have higher potential ceilings than the serve- or return bots.
Of course, these stats of what they've done thus far don't tell us how they'll develop in the future. But I think it illustrates the difference in what lies behind their rankings. Shapo obviously has tremendous upside, and I wouldn't be surprised to see either one have the better career. Nevertheless, I put my money on Money's more adult game and suspect Shapo will have more serious holes to overcome (return + erratic single-hander).
And of course that forehand...
metsman
G.O.A.T.
I could see all of them being FAA fodder in about 5 years or so tbh. Mass vulturing may go on before then...
gogo
Legend
My main worry there is that FAA will succumb to health/injury issues (heart; wrist; or something else) or, more likely, simply won't be able to handle the expectations. Are these unfounded? Please tell me these are unfounded concerns. I really, really, really want FAA to fulfill his potential. The fans are waiting!
-NN-
G.O.A.T.
More on the heart issue??
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