Big 4 - Ranking of best serve (With loads of stats)

Atennisone

Atennisone

Hall of Fame
So another big 4 debate, I guess. Look at Murray's, Federer's, Nadal's, Djokovic's careers, and how would you rank them in terms of serve.

Stats is a lot but not all, though in terms of the stat it says

1. Aces:

Federer - 10819 in 1383 matches, average of 7.8 aces per match

Nadal - 3178 in 1082 matches, average of 2.9 aces per match

Djokovic - 5219 in 972 matches, average of 5.4 aces per match

Murray - 5562 in 819 matches, average of 6.8 aces per match


2. First Serve % Won:

Federer - 77.34%

Nadal - 71.76%

Djokovic - 73.37%

Murray - 74.49%


3. Second Serve % Won

Federer - 56.75%

Nadal - 57.30%

Djokovic - 55.47%

Murray - 51.97%


4. Break Points Saved Stats

Federer - 67.12%

Nadal - 66.56%

Djokovic - 65.45%

Murray - 62.57%


5. Service Games Won

Federer - 88.73%

Nadal - 85.52%

Djokovic - 85.61%

Murray - 81.94%
 
BGod

BGod

G.O.A.T.
It's extremely clear cut Federer has the best serve of all 4. His ace count could be much higher but he shoots for more consistent placement for his approach like Sampras.

The #2 server I would argue is Murray because Novak drops more service games at least in my recollection and has the security of the best return game of the 4.

Now for #3 I think it's obviously Novak over Nadal.

Nadal's career is entirely owed to his left-handed topspin and endurance. Absolutely the difference for him.
 
Towny

Towny

Hall of Fame
The only debate is between Nadal and Djokovic. No point having Federer and Murray here, because Fed is so clearly the best and because of Murray's second serve. I would go with Djokovic as being second best of the 4 over all. I feel his serve really got better under Becker
 
T

TennisCJC

Legend
Statistics can be misleading. Nadal has played a lot more matches on clay where defending your second serve is a bit easier.

It seems pretty clear Federer has the best serve. Djokovic has most improved as his serve was bad at times several years ago. Nadal's serve has been bad at times but he does extremely well behind it as his ground game is so good. Murray's 2nd serve is weak for that level and likely cost him some Wimbledon matches.

Technically, Federer is far and away the best. His 2nd serve is extremely good. Nadal is a good model for most rec players as he hits a lot of heavy spin, with a high percentage in and uses the serve to setup the next ball.
 
jm1980

jm1980

Talk Tennis Guru
BGod said:
The #2 server I would argue is Murray because Novak drops more service games at least in my recollection and has the security of the best return game of the 4.
Click to expand...
These stats were in the OP:

Atennisone said:
5. Service Games Won

Federer - 88.73%
Nadal - 85.52%
Djokovic - 85.61%
Murray - 81.94%
Click to expand...

Nadal and Djokovic are pretty much tied with Murray a distant fourth
 
E

EadTTR

New User
TennisCJC said:
Statistics can be misleading. Nadal has played a lot more matches on clay where defending your second serve is a bit easier.

It seems pretty clear Federer has the best serve. Djokovic has most improved as his serve was bad at times several years ago. Nadal's serve has been bad at times but he does extremely well behind it as his ground game is so good. Murray's 2nd serve is weak for that level and likely cost him some Wimbledon matches.

Technically, Federer is far and away the best. His 2nd serve is extremely good. Nadal is a good model for most rec players as he hits a lot of heavy spin, with a high percentage in and uses the serve to setup the next ball.
Click to expand...
Nadal has won a higher percentage of second serve on grass and hard than on clay. Also he has won a higher percentage on second serve on hard courts than Federer.
 
T

TennisCJC

Legend
EadTTR said:
Nadal has won a higher percentage of second serve on grass and hard than on clay. Also he has won a higher percentage on second serve on hard courts than Federer.
Click to expand...
yea, but it is the game behind Nadal's serve that skews the stats and not the serve itself. a couple of years ago when Nadal was not playing his best, his 2nd serve was being abused fairly consistently. I've always said if Nadal were right handed with the same service, it would be a rather average serve for an atp pro. he's lucky he is L handed. no?
 
PeteD

PeteD

Legend
Meanwhile in Manitoba . . . The Monster plans his comeback
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Red Rick

Red Rick

Bionic Poster
Atennisone said:
So another big 4 debate, I guess. Look at Murray's, Federer's, Nadal's, Djokovic's careers, and how would you rank them in terms of serve.

Stats is a lot but not all, though in terms of the stat it says

1. Aces:

Federer - 10819 in 1383 matches, average of 7.8 aces per match

Nadal - 3178 in 1082 matches, average of 2.9 aces per match

Djokovic - 5219 in 972 matches, average of 5.4 aces per match

Murray - 5562 in 819 matches, average of 6.8 aces per match


2. First Serve % Won:

Federer - 77.34%

Nadal - 71.76%

Djokovic - 73.37%

Murray - 74.49%


3. Second Serve % Won

Federer - 56.75%

Nadal - 57.30%

Djokovic - 55.47%

Murray - 51.97%


4. Break Points Saved Stats

Federer - 67.12%

Nadal - 66.56%

Djokovic - 65.45%

Murray - 62.57%


5. Service Games Won

Federer - 88.73%

Nadal - 85.52%

Djokovic - 85.61%

Murray - 81.94%
Click to expand...
Please don't tell me you combined all surfaces
 
Red Rick

Red Rick

Bionic Poster
It's super obvious that Federer, while his serve is the most overrated shot in the history of the game, has the best serve of the big 4.

1st serve: Fed>>Murray>Djoko>Nadal
2nd serve: Fed>Djoko>>Nadal>>>>>>>>>>>>Mury

Mury playing serve on hard mode.

Overall it's

Fed>Djoko>Nadal>Murray
 
Sport

Sport

G.O.A.T.
Red Rick said:
It's super obvious that Federer, while his serve is the most overrated shot in the history of the game, has the best serve of the big 4.

1st serve: Fed>>Murray>Djoko>Nadal
2nd serve: Fed>Djoko>>Nadal>>>>>>>>>>>>Mury

Mury playing serve on hard mode.

Overall it's

Fed>Djoko>Nadal>Murray
Click to expand...
? Nadal wins 57% of his second serves, while Djokovic only wins 55% of his second serves.

In terms of second serve, Nadal > Djokovic.
 
jm1980

jm1980

Talk Tennis Guru
Sport said:
Murray is the second greatest server of the Big 4 by a GIANT margin.

Murray averages 6.8 aces per match, Djokovic only 5.4. Case closed.
Click to expand...
Strongly disagree. Murray’s second serve is easily the worst of the Big Four, which really shows

Even if we look at first serves, Murray only wins marginally more first serve points than Djokovic. The kicker is, Murray only gets 58% of his first serves in, versus 65% from Djokovic. This 7% difference is massive

Murray may put more mph on his serve, but he is the least accurate server of the four. Overall, I’d put Murray dead last: Fed >> Djoko > Nadal >> Murray
 
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Sport

Sport

G.O.A.T.
jm1980 said:
Even if we look at first serves, Murray only wins marginally more first serve points than Djokovic. The kicker is, Murray only gets 58% of his first serves in, versus 65% from Djokovic. This 7% difference is massive
Click to expand...

Murray averages 6.8 aces per match, Djokovic only 5.4.
Murray wins 74% of his first serves, Djokovic only 73%.

Murray is undoubtedly a better first server. Djokovic is only a better second server. If Djokovic were a better first server, he would have a higher % of first serves won than Murray. But the opposite seems to be true: Murray has a higher % than Djokovic of first serves won.
 
TheFifthSet

TheFifthSet

Legend
Sport said:
Murray averages 6.8 aces per match, Djokovic only 5.4.
Murray wins 74% of his first serves, Djokovic only 73%.

Murray is undoubtedly a better first server. Djokovic is only a better second server. If Djokovic were a better first server, he would have a higher % of first serves won than Murray. But the opposite seems to be true: Murray has a higher % than Djokovic of first serves won.
Click to expand...


1. You said Murray was the second best overall server of the Big 4 by a giant margin, now you’re walking it back by limiting it to first serves


2. You realize that part of having a good first serve is getting it inside the court, right? If Djokovic got 70% of first serves in play and maintained his 73% win rate while Murray only got 50% in and stayed at 74%, would that 20% difference finally be enough for you?

7% isn’t 20%, but it’s quite a bit and offsets the 1% difference in first serve win rates/aces.

On the second serve, they’re not even in the same universe. Overall, Djokovic is clearly the superior server.
 
jm1980

jm1980

Talk Tennis Guru
Sport said:
Murray averages 6.8 aces per match, Djokovic only 5.4.
Murray wins 74% of his first serves, Djokovic only 73%.

Murray is undoubtedly a better first server. Djokovic is only a better second server. If Djokovic were a better first server, he would have a higher % of first serves won than Murray. But the opposite seems to be true: Murray has a higher % than Djokovic of first serves won.
Click to expand...
Murray's first serve when it goes in is better than Djokovic's. I'll give you that. But you are missing the all important first serve % stat in your analysis. Taking that into consideration:

Murray: 58% first serves in * 74% first serves won = 42.9%
Djokovic: 65% first serves in * 73% first serves won = 47.5%

In other words, when Djokovic hits a first serve, he ends up winning close to 5% more points than Murray does.

Murray's lower first % is only compounded by his weaker second delivery
 
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Bobby Jr

Bobby Jr

G.O.A.T.
EadTTR said:
Nadal has won a higher percentage of second serve on grass and hard than on clay. Also he has won a higher percentage on second serve on hard courts than Federer.
Click to expand...
Yep, but he's also played lower quality opponents on-average on grass too on account of losing early so often.

The players who go deep in tournaments invariably play better servers and much better returners on average that players who, say, consistently lose before the quarter-finals. Across a career that has an impact on the stats.
 
Sport

Sport

G.O.A.T.
jm1980 said:
Murray's first serve when it goes in is better than Djokovic's. I'll give you that. But you are missing the all important first serve % stat in your analysis. Taking that into consideration:

Murray: 58% first serves in * 74% first serves won = 42.9%
Djokovic: 65% first serves in * 73% first serves won = 47.5%

In other words, when Djokovic hits a first serve, he ends up winning close to 5% more points than Murray does.

Murray's lower first % is only compounded by his weaker second delivery
Click to expand...
Thanks for replying and adressing the point I was talking about.

Djokovic is a better first server than Murray in terms of efficiency. But it seems like Mr. Murray is a better "acer" (he makes more aces).

By the way, do you have stats of the % of Nadal's first serves which are in?
 
T

TennisCJC

Legend
Sport said:
Murray is the second greatest server of the Big 4 by a GIANT margin.

Murray averages 6.8 aces per match, Djokovic only 5.4. Case closed.
Click to expand...
But Murray has a relatively weak 2nd serve. He frequently hits 2nd serves in the 80-88 mph range. He might be 2nd of big 4 though but not by a giant margin. Djokovic on a good day is probably better because djoko’s 2nd serve averages in 90-96 range
 
NatF

NatF

Bionic Poster
Sport said:
Thanks for replying and adressing the point I was talking about.

Djokovic is a better first server than Murray in terms of efficiency. But it seems like Mr. Murray is a better "acer" (he makes more aces).

By the way, do you have stats of the % of Nadal's first serves which are in?
Click to expand...

Per match isn't the best metric for aces, longer matches will have more serves and thus more aces.

However Murray does indeed hit more aces 8.6% of serves versus 7% for Djokovic. Obviously Djokovic getting more first serves in a big factor when comparing their first serves.
 
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