With Nadal now likely to miss 2 months at least (same injury as in New York and he was out 2 months before he then needed an operation on a different ailment) thiem is probably favourite for the French Open given Djokovic will feel pressure going for undisputed GOAT status if he were to hold all 4 Majors at once again for 2nd time.
Thiem Favourite for French Open
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ghostofMecir
Hall of Fame
tennis_pro
Bionic Poster
Watch Nadal in Monte Carlo and Barcelona first
Deon Sanders
Legend
lol
Novak would scalp him and pee in his eyeballs if they played at the French
Novak would scalp him and pee in his eyeballs if they played at the French
D
Deleted member 762343
Guest
Too soon to tell. I think the clay season will determine who is the favorite, whether Nadal plays RG or not.
MajesticTennisManiac
Rookie
Nadal has always played at least 19 clay matches between Monte Carlo and French Open from 2005-present
Nadal_Django
Legend
Thiem is definitely up there with Rafa, maybe slightly behind, with Zverev third and Djokovic fourth favourite.
MeatTornado
Talk Tennis Guru
Until proven otherwise, Nadal is still #1
Last year he had to retire from Australia, withdrew from Acapulco, Indian Wells and Miami before going on to sweep the clay season again.
He's actually in much better shape this year!
Last year he had to retire from Australia, withdrew from Acapulco, Indian Wells and Miami before going on to sweep the clay season again.
He's actually in much better shape this year!
Nadal.outdoor hard is 8-5 v Federer and 3-1 at AO!!! I maybe take the point with earths mightiest warrior but rafa i doubt fears Federer on hard court especially in hot conditions.
Nadal is close to quitting the game. He again will struggle to play 10 events this year and Thiem is the guy who will take over on clay. Time moves on. As for everywhere else nobody is close to Djokovic now and Djokovic will win Wimbledon and US Open as i just cant see guys beating him bar Thiem on clay.
That is bad timing though to get an injury on a weight bearing joint. Without upsetting novak fans, the way Rafa played in the final in australia its arguable he was suffering then as well albeit Novak was supreme. Rafa keeps getting injured after a short period of time playing which is not a good sign
Zverev? I cant see him ahead of Novak umless u feel Novak may feel the pressure of going for a Nole slam again?
Sport
G.O.A.T.
Nadal said he is 100% sure he will play in Montecarlo.
Difference is that Nadal kept playing against Bashilvasilis and Thiem after his knee problems with Khachanov at the USO 2018. Now he withdrawed in the next match to avoid major issues.
Also, there are still 3 months before RG. More than time enough for recovery.
Sport
G.O.A.T.
Yeah, just like Federer tanking to Delpo at the USO 2017 to protect his H2H.
ibbi
G.O.A.T.
Nadal was out practicing today. There is no reason to assume his withdrawal is anything more than not being ready to compete within 24 hours of the previous match. Even if he is out for 2 months I'm going to favour the guy who's won the last 3 grand slams over the guy who's wet the bed in every major final he's played.
OldschoolKIaus
Hall of Fame
Nadal 2 months off? lol maybe if he wants to avoid Djokovic and Thiem on clay lmao
BeatlesFan
Bionic Poster
LOL. He's playing MC as he said today in his presser. He's perfectly fine and will be ready to go when clay season starts.
Oh--- and Thiem is not the favorite at RG.
BeatlesFan
Bionic Poster
You're already been corrected on the "hot" conditions at IW in two previous threads. It is NOT hot here!!!! It's 77 degrees right now and has been in the 60's the past two weeks.
BorgTheGOAT
Legend
Even IF Nadal was out for Paris Novak would take care of Thiem so big fat NO to the question.
TennisFan3
Talk Tennis Guru
Novak and Nadal are favorites. Not Thiem. Not by a long shot.
I Am Finnish
Bionic Poster
Nope still Nadal unless he pulls out
thomasferrett
Hall of Fame
Even in a world where Nadal did not exist, there are at least 10 people more likely to win the French Open than Thiem. To name a few of them; Djokovic, A. Zverev, Federer, Del-Potro, Nishikori, Monfils, Wawrinka, Goffin, Cilic and Anderson.
BorgTheGOAT
Legend
Not a fan of Thiem but to name Zverev here is outright laughable. Dude got destroyed by Thiem last year and is a non factor at slams in general.
thomasferrett
Hall of Fame
He already has a clay Masters which is likely more than Thiem will ever achieve in his career.
BorgTheGOAT
Legend
Slam final > masters
Technology Ruined Tennis
Hall of Fame
Joker will win. And the VB will claim to have never heard of this so-called "double career grand slam".
jm1980
Talk Tennis Guru
Why didn't he "attempt to protect the H2H" ahead of the AO final?
No hun its 30c there today...hot enough for the ball to bounce high enough to trouble Federer big time . As i say it takes actually playing the game to understand the nuances of how weather can affect conditions
Nadal wont play MC...ive had the injury its 8 week recovery time. Thiems time has come...if he wins tomorrow he wins next three FOs. His game is brutal
He wont play MC but im sure he will play FO but Thiem going to be so tough.
DSH
Talk Tennis Guru
DSH
Talk Tennis Guru
zverev, he continues tender, lacks blood, sweat and tears to compete in grand slams.
federer, he's too old to compete in clay. third or maximum fourth round.
del potro, he only has a small chance in the us open, if he decides to continue.
it will be interesting to see khachanov and tsitsipas in RG.
if they continue to win matches, their position in the ranking will improve so they avoid complicated opponents from the start. one of them can go far but it will be short.
and it remains to see djokovic himself if he can continue to the level of 3 years ago in clay.
but of course it is one of the favorites.
I Am Finnish
Bionic Poster
Maybe it is not a bad idea
I Am Finnish
Bionic Poster
I Stopped reading at goffin, cilic & Anderson
Milehigh5280
Professional
Nadal will always be the favorite on clay if he's healthy and playing.
D
Deleted member 688153
Guest
Already getting the excuses ready for a tournament played in June? Hahaha
Nadal is the favourite until proven otherwise. It's RG ffs. Stand up for your man.
I would favour Djok to beat him if they met tho but that's far from guaranteed. Thiem could take Djok out
I Am Finnish
Bionic Poster
Z above Djokovic? Disagree
Nadalgaenger
G.O.A.T.
Did you see their 2017 FO SF?
kevaninho
Hall of Fame
Actually Nadal has already played a lot more matches this year than he did last year at this point. He is adding points to his ranking in the process.
Nadal fans have nothing to worry about .
Im also pretty sure he relishes the challenge of facing Fedovic, not fears it. Get a grip.
Kalin
Legend
Well, their last few meetings have been terribly one-sided in Roger's favour. The times when Rafa wasn't scared of Roger are long in the past.
Deon Sanders
Legend
Was very soon after he learned about his wifes boyfriend
You saw the season collapse
tennisfanboy
Rookie
You need to stop living in 2013. Nadal is 0-5 on hard courts vs Fed in the last 4yrs
Third Serve
Talk Tennis Guru
Gave me a good laugh
Meles
Bionic Poster
Actually Djoko showed himself fully capable of winning 2017 Wimby and of course got 2018, but the elbow took him down in 2017.
Meles
Bionic Poster
Djokovic is getting quite old for clay, but his seeding will help him immensely this year..... Let's check the potential seeding. If Thiem can hold off Nishikori in Miami (will be 165 point gap in live rankings Monday, 565 if Thiem wins IW), he's well setup for garnering 4th seed at RG unless Federer decides to play Monte Carlo (Thiem likely to get 360 points in MC assuming he gets to SF.) Nishikori is set to play Barcelon so he'll skip Monte Carlo. #4 at the French for Thiem seems likely if he starts out clay season at or near 4 (5 behind Federer). If Thiem is 5-8 seed his chances are much lower as Zverev/Nadal or Zverev/Djoko may await him for QF/SF with either Djoko or Nadal in Final.
Let's assume Thiem gets 4th seed for RG. That leaves Fed, Nishi, Anderson, and likely Tsitsipas 5-8. Sneaksipas probably very dangerous for Thiem and Djokovic, but not Nadal. R16 for 5-8 will be with 9-12 and here we likely have Khachanov, Coric, Raonic, and maybe Cilic. Khachanov and Coric have the potential to cause a lot of trouble so they could come through to QFs with the top seeds. I'd pencil in Basilashvilli, Cecchinato, Medvedev (hardly defending anything on clay), and lets say Wawrinka for 13-16. Medvedev is not threat on clay. Wawrinka and Basilashvilli might be extremely dangerous for the top seeds R16. Hard to predict beyond this, but Shapo, Demon, Tiafoe, possibly Edmund, Goffin, and Auger-Aliassime will be minor threats (FAA with solid chance of seeding by RG).
Djokovic hasn't really proven himself on clay the last few years and he's no spring chicken so very long in tooth for clay. Also factor in the possibility of Wawrinka or Cecchinato R16 and his draw could be problematic. Thiem and Nadal have little to fear from R16 group. If Zverev broke through at RG he'd be a rough SF as well and Thiem assuredly. Tsitsipas dangerous.
Nadal only has to fear Djokovic, but that can only happen in final. Zverev almost took him out in Rome and Thiem would spell trouble in wet or cold conditions where the bounce is not terribly high. Coric in fantastic form about the only QF that might put some pressure on Nadal.
Thiem has a good advantage at 4 as the big serving and dangerous Zverev only possible in final. Nadal SF could easily be the end of the road. Tsitsipas and Coric in great form would be huge threat to Thiem. Thiem obviously better off in Djokovic's half and let's leave it at that.
Zverev's issue is players that can bleed him. These are typically mobile players who can engage him in long rallies. If the last two years are any indication he'll come into RG with a head of steam. 7th heaven for Zverev if he draws a bunch of big servers who won't bleed him. The weakest of the 4, but would be no joke if he came into latter stages having only faced a few 4 set matches. Still, likely to get bled or knocked out early at RG and be no threat to anyone in the latter stages.
Looking at the draw possibilities Thiem is a clear #2 at RG unless Djokovic gets another nice slam draw like at 2018 Wimby and US Open.
We have not statistical baseline for Thiem coming into clay this year given his sickness and injury plagued start to 2019. His IW run has been beyond impressive with very solid stats. @Gary Duane and I were secretly lusting over Thiem's hard court stats and potential on serve at this time last year and then disaster struck and Thiem fractured his ankle. This completely derailed his start to the the clay season from lack of play and Thiem did not begin to play reasonably well until late in Lyon even playing two matches in the same day right before the final. This gave him the play and momentum for RG, but even with that his stats for RG were not as good as 2017 despite making the Final. Watching his movement (viper like quickness some of the time vs Raonic which has his backhand really clicking), it appears to my eyes that Thiem is set to exceed even my own lofty dreams. Break it down:
1. Thiem's serve and forehand go up and down in level together. First set against Raonic he poured in over 90% of his first serves and won over 90% of those points with 0 UEs (finished match with something ridiculous... 9 UEs and two were DFs). Average first serve speed was 110 mph. Forehand was a rock and this all implies that Thiem's hip/back issues that have impacted his game are non-existent at the moment. Thiem is healthy.
2. The big serve game Gary and I saw forming at the start of 2018 has arrived and to add insult to injury to the field Thiem seems at a level late at IW much like his big Acapulco run where he had something like 22 Aces and near 80% serving in the final and much the same for the whole week. Thiem's serve game has arrived and its incredible. It will be lethal on clay where his first kicker will be highly effective (by the way this serve has been changed due to health concerns and still pales to what he had going with the "Super Kicker" Acapulco 2016.)
3. Thiem appears to be a late bloomer. His movement against Raonic is far better than coming into this period last year which is amazing given he's 25 going on 26 this Fall.
4. The Thiem backhand is the best he's had to date due to the viper like movement giving him more time. Not going to be pretty for opponents on clay as Thiem can hit through even Nadal with his big backhand.
5. With this Raonic victory Thiem has clearly figured out to handle giant servers like Raonic, Karlovic, and Anderson back at US Open. This has been a real weakness for Thiem who has an excellent first return when he's up in the box blocking, but it does not work against the giant high velocity servers. He's able to stay way back now and flag back enough returns to put these servers into pressure ever few games. Far away from the likes of Murray or Djokovic particularly in recent times (Nole's first return had been declining, but now he's handling big serves with aplomb.) But for Thiem this is enough and now that he has great movement and a big serve game he's able to dominate baseline rallies with these players. Won 65 baseline rallies to like 20 with Raonic earlier today.
6. Thiem's patching of his weaknesses means he's going to be going deep with regularity and may even be a threat for number one over the next few years before the younger NextGen wave comes to fruition.
7. Thiem's stamina continues to improve nicely and no doubt he's capable in this area now for any slam, something not the case in 2017 and we started to see with his epic QF with Nadal at the 2018 US Open.
8. Thiem's mysterious 2nd serve woes of 2017 into 2018 really held him back and they now seem firmly in his rear view mirror. Even if still a bit of an issue it is a minor concern if Thiem is able to serve 70-80% first serves in latter stages of events.
The only weakness for Thiem on clay is high bouncing conditions at RG allowing Nadal to continue his abuse at that event. If the improved movement allows Thiem to blunt this then he'll be a big threat to Nadal and perhaps able to do physical damage to Nadal like at 2018 US Open.
Overall, Thiem for me after review is is a strong #2 at RG and the only thing really holding him back on clay for the time being appears to be Nadal.
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MichaelNadal
Bionic Poster
Sleeveless Rafa will mop up the clay season like it's 2010
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