How did Nadal get such a ridiculous draw compared to Djoker & especially Fed?

octogon · Jan 28, 2020

I heard none of the players of the players Fed faced for the first 5 rounds were even in top 40. I don't always buy rigged draw theories, but it feels like doing everything possible to keep Fed in till at least the semis. Yet he's still going life and death with players ranked 100 like Sandgren. If Fed actually starts getting tougher than average draws, we'll be seeing more 3rd or 4th round exits from him.

Almost any player that could have given Djokovic any serious match was in Nadal's half of the draw (Wawrinka. Kyrigos, Medvedev, Thiem), so he's had a pretty easy ride to the semis. And Nadal has to take out a murderer's row of players from the 4th round on just to reach the semis.

Matheson · Jan 28, 2020

Raonic > Kyrgios
Schwartzman > Busta

Nadal has had a cake walk.

HetTheGreaterer · Jan 28, 2020

You get some, you lose some.
Plus it's not like rafa has had a tough draw

TheAssassin · Jan 28, 2020

VamosBrigade have gotten used to enjoying the opposite scenario too much.

octogon · Jan 28, 2020

Matheson said:
Raonic > Kyrgios
Schwartzman > Busta

Nadal has had a cake walk.

Schawtrzman nor Raonic have ever had the weapons to hurt Djokovic. They are an easy draw for him. Djokovic has never beaten Kyrigos...that would be considered a tough opponent for him. Djokovic managed to avoid any player he's had trouble with. Hence, an easy draw.

Rabin · Jan 28, 2020

Every member of the Big 3 has had easy draws at some point: Fed at AO18, Rafa at USO17, Djoko this tournament...all evens out in the end. These days though, the favorable draws are way more important than earlier in their careers, except maybe at RG.

Goof · Jan 28, 2020

Nadal's draw up till now has been fine. His quarterfinal is WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY tougher than Djok or Fed's, but his semi will be against a pretender who can't serve (and who looks like one of those inflatable guys at used car lots) or a very very tough but old guy who is great but not as great as Fed/Djok's semifinal opponents.

aditya123 · Jan 28, 2020

Matheson said:
Raonic > Kyrgios
Schwartzman > Busta

Nadal has had a cake walk.

Totally wrong.... Raonic should be compared with Thiem(qf opponents) and Schwartzmam with Kyrgios(4th round opponents). Nadal has the tougher draw

Bianca007 · Jan 28, 2020

Nadal beating Kyrgios was the big thing for Rafa. This is his worse slam and it was highly unlikely he would win 2 HC Majors back to back. As long as Federer doesnt win which is now a certainty Rafa has everything where he wants it, that is Roland Garros being where he can get 20 Majors.

The Thiem match is also helpful as its a good sighter for what is likely his only challenger at Roland Garros. Djokovic on clay seems to have regressed.

OldschoolKIaus · Jan 28, 2020

Nadal is an old ancient spanish word for cake walk

Bianca007 · Jan 28, 2020

TheAssassin said:
VamosBrigade have gotten used to enjoying the opposite scenario too much.

************* very relaxed. Nobody expects Nadal to win AO. His dominant slams are FO and USO. As long as Federer loses ************* have champagne on ice for May/June

Zoolander · Jan 28, 2020

Nadals opponents so far have been ranked 73, 76, 30, 26. His opponents now will be Thiem, who is his bunny and an easybeat, then wawrinka or zverev, who have both had big problems the last 12 months. I wouldnt really call that a hard draw?!

TearTheRoofOff · Jan 28, 2020

OldschoolKIaus said:
Nadal is an old ancient spanish word for cake walk

And Rafael means 'I am not the favourite'.

Bianca007 · Jan 28, 2020

Zoolander said:
Nadals opponents so far have been ranked 73, 76, 30, 26. His opponents now will be Thiem, who is his bunny and an easybeat, then wawrinka or zverev, who have both had big problems the last 12 months. I wouldnt really call that a hard draw?!

I bet Nadal would prefer to play Federer than Thiem!

MeatTornado · Jan 28, 2020

octogon said:
I heard none of the players of the players Fed faced for the first 5 rounds were even in top 40. I don't always buy riggered draw theories, but it feels like doing everything possible to keep Fed in till at least the semis. Yet he's still going life and death with players ranked 100 like Sandgren. If Fed actually starts getting tougher than average draws, we'll be seeing more 3rd or 4th round exits from him.

Almost any player that could have given Djokovic any serious match was in Nadal's half of the draw (Wawrinka. Kyrigos, Medvedev, Thiem), so he's had a pretty easy ride to the semis. And Nadal has to take out a murderer's row of players from the 4th round on just to reach the semis.

Roger was supposed to play Hurkacz(31), Shapo(13)/Grigor(18) and then Berrettini(8) the last 3 rounds.

Them all getting upset early doesn't make it a rigged draw for Fed.

Sport · Jan 28, 2020

Goof said:
Nadal's draw up till now has been fine. His quarterfinal is WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY tougher than Djok or Fed's, but his semi will be against a pretender who can't serve (and who looks like one of those inflatable guys at used car lots) or a very very tough but old guy who is great but not as great as Fed/Djok's semifinal opponents.

Both Wawrinka and Zverev are in better shape than Federer and so represent a tougher SF. Shape > name.

Zverev is fresh and young and has yet to lose a set in the tournament. Wawrinka just defeated the #4 in the world Medvedev, proving he is in great shape right now.

Don't forget that Federer is 38 years old and declined and almost lost to journeymen like Millman (#47) and Sandgren (#100). Federer is even reporting some injury or pain. This is the worst version of Federer at the AO ever.

octogon · Jan 28, 2020

Zoolander said:
Nadals opponents so far have been ranked 73, 76, 30, 26. His opponents now will be Thiem, who is his bunny and an easybeat, then wawrinka or zverev, who have both had big problems the last 12 months. I wouldnt really call that a hard draw?!

Fed hasn't even faced anyone in the top 40 yet. Kyrigos is a hugely dangerous 4th round opponent, regardless of his ranking. He always goes all out for Djokodal.

Wawrinka took out Djokovic at the last US Open. It's safe to say he's getting back to his best level and is a threat to win the whole tournament. Nadal is not guaranteed to get past Stan playing like this on a hardcourt.

Zoolander · Jan 28, 2020

octogon said:
Fed hasn't even faced anyone in the top 40 yet. Kyrigos is a hugely dangerous 4th round opponent, regardless of his ranking. He always goes all out for Djokodal.

Anybody who has to play Djoko BEFORE the final has a tough draw! And lets be blunt, Fed has no chance against Novak.

Sport · Jan 28, 2020

MeatTornado said:
Roger was supposed to play Hurkacz(31), Shapo(13)/Grigor(18) and then Berrettini(8) the last 3 rounds.

Them all getting upset early doesn't make it a rigged draw for Fed.

Berrettinini is easier than Thiem and Shapo is easier than Kyrgios. Shapo has never defeated any member of the Big 3, unlike Kyrgios. And the Berrettini/Thiem comparison is not even close.

I don't buy the "rigged draws" theory though. I think players are sometimes unlucky and sometimes lucky with draw. In this particular case, Federer and to a lesser degree Djokovic were lucky with the draw, just like in other instances Nadal has been the lucky one.

StrongRule · Jan 28, 2020

Very much true. There are so many players in Nadal's half who used to trouble Djokovic in the past. They could at least challenge him even on this court. But no, of course he had to face his pigeon Raonic instead.

RelentlessAttack · Jan 28, 2020

Yeah it’s a tough draw similar to US18. But he’s also had easy ones like US17/19. It is super easy for Nole, similar to US16. OTOH, Nole had a tough draw at US19

Standaa · Jan 28, 2020

thoughest draw of all time @Sport

Djokovic_is_the_best#1 · Jan 28, 2020

Bianca007 said:
Nadal beating Kyrgios was the big thing for Rafa. This is his worse slam and it was highly unlikely he would win 2 HC Majors back to back. As long as Federer doesnt win which is now a certainty Rafa has everything where he wants it, that is Roland Garros being where he can get 20 Majors.

The Thiem match is also helpful as its a good sighter for what is likely his only challenger at Roland Garros. Djokovic on clay seems to have regressed.

I wouldn’t count out Djokovic on clay just yet. He was very close to reaching French final last year and the conditions blew him off course. Djoko also won Madrid and reached Rome final. Novak can play on clay. Of course Rafa is the favourite and maybe Thiem 2nd but Novak is right there in the contenders and I still feel he could win another French with a decent draw and scheduling.

I agree though, Rafa and his fans will hope that as long as Fed doesn’t win you still have the chance to equal the record at RG. If Novak gets to 17 though, the race is really heating up and makes RG really interesting.

Zoolander · Jan 28, 2020

Bianca007 said:
I bet Nadal would prefer to play Federer than Thiem!

Thiem has never beat Nadal at a GS, and i dont expect that to change anytime soon. He has mental problems now....

Open Stance · Jan 28, 2020

I hate the way tennis has random draws. There is no way a #1 seed should be slotted to play a #5 seed in the quarters while the #4 player is slotted to play #7 or #3 is slotted to play #8 like was the case in this year's draw. It should be done like it is with the NCAA basketball tournament with 1 vs 8, 2 vs 7, 3 vs 6 and 4 vs 5. This should apply to all rounds where the seeds play each other. I know the random draw is currently done to avoid having the same match ups repeat but these guys move up and down the rankings enough where that probably wouldn't be an issue. As it is now, the top seed usually gets penalized when the benefit of being #1 should be to play the highest seeds at the end of the tournament.

MeatTornado · Jan 28, 2020

Sport said:
Berrettinini is easier than Thiem and Shapo is easier than Kyrgios. Shapo has never defeated any member of the Big 3, unlike Kyrgios. And the Berrettini/Thiem comparison is not even close.

I don't buy the "rigged draws" theory though. I think players are sometimes unlucky and sometimes lucky with draw. In this particular case, Federer and to a lesser degree Djokovic were lucky with the draw, just like in other instances Nadal has been the lucky one.

Oh its cetainly easier. I was doing cartwheels when the draw came out.

But OP was taking about how Fed hasn't faced anyonr top 40 yet and I'm just explaining why. Having an easy draw on paper and having an easy path after the matches start are 2 different things. (in this case Fed happened to get both

).

TheAssassin · Jan 28, 2020

Bianca007 said:
************* very relaxed. Nobody expects Nadal to win AO. His dominant slams are FO and USO. As long as Federer loses ************* have champagne on ice for May/June

He is only dominant at the French Open.

Good thing Fed landed in Novak's half then. Wouldn't be confident in Nadal beating him...

Daniel Andrade · Jan 28, 2020

chance.

junior74 · Jan 28, 2020

VB is figuring out how weak tennis is, but only by studying the three other quarters in every draw

Bianca007 · Jan 28, 2020

TheAssassin said:
He is only dominant at the US Open.

Good thing Fed landed in Novak's half then. Wouldn't be confident in Nadal beating him...

Nadal Thiem Zverev Wawrinka would all straight set Federer. Forget the name look at whats happening on court.

chjtennis · Jan 28, 2020

This is a very unusual draw. Normally Nadal gets the ridiculous free pass to finals most of the times. Also, on paper, it may seem tough, but in reality, it is actually an easy draw because the only 2 guys who can beat Nadal will have to kill each other to get to final. Nadal can just beat a tired Djokovic/Federer and scavenge the AO title.

Bianca007 · Jan 28, 2020

Djokovic_is_the_best#1 said:
I wouldn’t count out Djokovic on clay just yet. He was very close to reaching French final last year and the conditions blew him off course. Djoko also won Madrid and reached Rome final. Novak can play on clay. Of course Rafa is the favourite and maybe Thiem 2nd but Novak is right there in the contenders and I still feel he could win another French with a decent draw and scheduling.

I agree though, Rafa and his fans will hope that as long as Fed doesn’t win you still have the chance to equal the record at RG. If Novak gets to 17 though, the race is really heating up and makes RG really interesting.

Rafa and Nole are pushing each other to new heights. I expect both to get past 20.

Kind of wont mind Rafa losing to Thiem. I like thiem and with Djokovic virtually certain to be in final Rafa wont be beating Novak in RLA so best to avoid the disappointment lol

WhiskeyEE · Jan 28, 2020

2020
Tough draw

Pick one.

Raonic was the most 'in form' player who took out everyone he played in straights. The 1st time he had ever done so en route to a slam QF. Hadn't dropped serve and was being hyped up as being in the best form of his career. In the end he looked mediocre at best when he wasn't playing the Next Gen or ghost of Cilic.

WhiskeyEE · Jan 28, 2020

Bianca007 said:
Nadal Thiem Zverev Wawrinka would all straight set Federer. Forget the name look at whats happening on court.

Wawrinka needed 5 sets to beat Seppi and has struggled in every match except the one his opponent retired in. His form is being incredibly overrated.

R_Federer · Jan 28, 2020

octogon said:
I heard none of the players of the players Fed faced for the first 5 rounds were even in top 40. I don't always buy rigged draw theories, but it feels like doing everything possible to keep Fed in till at least the semis. Yet he's still going life and death with players ranked 100 like Sandgren. If Fed actually starts getting tougher than average draws, we'll be seeing more 3rd or 4th round exits from him.

Almost any player that could have given Djokovic any serious match was in Nadal's half of the draw (Wawrinka. Kyrigos, Medvedev, Thiem), so he's had a pretty easy ride to the semis. And Nadal has to take out a murderer's row of players from the 4th round on just to reach the semis.

Are you idiot? Fed had Shapo, Berretini, Fognini etc. in his draw. How is it rigged? Not his fault they lost..

Bianca007 · Jan 28, 2020

WhiskeyEE said:
Wawrinka needed 5 sets to beat Seppi and has struggled in every match except the one his opponent retired in. His form is being incredibly overrated.

He is always a danger once in 2nd week. I think its a wawrinka djokovic final

WhiskeyEE · Jan 28, 2020

Bianca007 said:
He is always a danger once in 2nd week. I think its a wawrinka djokovic final

Not really. Look at RG and USO 2019. He might be able to beat Zverev, but he isn't going to beat an in form Nadal/Novak. He was impressive in the 1st set against Medvedev. Then he got schooled for a couple sets until Medvedev started to gas out.

Stanimal hasn't really been a thing since 2015. Even his form at the 2016 USO is a bit overrated. Novak was already in his slump and was winning his matches with his aura only.

Bianca007 · Jan 28, 2020

WhiskeyEE said:
Not really. Look at RG and USO 2019. He might be able to beat Zverev, but he isn't going to beat an in form Nadal/Novak. He was impressive in the 1st set against Medvedev. Then he got schooled for a couple sets until Medvedev started to gas out.

Stanimal hasn't really been a thing since 2015. Even his form at the 2016 USO is a bit overrated. Novak was already in his slump and was winning his matches with his aura only.

I think Thiem beats Nadal in 4 sets. Rumours are Nadal has bad blisters after Kyrgios match. Thiem though i think would struggle with Wawrinka as he would be favourite and im not sure Thiem copes with being favourite too well.

Wawrinka likes playing Djokovic. Djokovic massive favourite but it would be a final worth watching.

TennisFan3 · Jan 28, 2020

Nadal's draw is from hell. He got really unlucky this time. While Novak got lucky avoiding Kygrios, Thiem. Medvedev, Stan etc. Even Tsitsipas lost before.
It happens..

WhiskeyEE · Jan 28, 2020

Bianca007 said:
I think Thiem beats Nadal in 4 sets. Rumours are Nadal has bad blisters after Kyrgios match. Thiem though i think would struggle with Wawrinka as he would be favourite and im not sure Thiem copes with being favourite too well.

Wawrinka likes playing Djokovic. Djokovic massive favourite but it would be a final worth watching.

Part of me thinks Thiem will win. I mean, compared to USO 2018, Nadal is older/not playing as well and Thiem is supposed to have entered his peak. It would almost be ridiculous for him to have regressed since then, which is what would be required for him to lose. But this is Thiem we're talking about. Progress isn't exactly his middle name.

Bianca007 · Jan 28, 2020

WhiskeyEE said:
Part of me thinks Thiem will win. I mean, compared to USO 2018, Nadal is older/not playing as well and Thiem is supposed to have entered his peak. It would almost be ridiculous for him to have regressed since then, which is what would be required for him to lose. But this is Thiem we're talking about. Progress isn't exactly his middle name.

USO 2018 i think you mean. Rafa is alot slimmer than he was then and this court is quicker and lower bouncing which for once should suit Nadal more. That said Thiem has improved alot on all surfaces and i think can outlast Nadal.

The Kyrgios match actually was perfect for Nadal as Kyrgios checks out of so many games. Thiem will hang with Rafa and i think in Australia Rafa has not the same aura as say FO or USO so i think Thiem wins..then loses Wawrinka.

Pheasant · Jan 28, 2020

Rafa has a tough road ahead of him. I'm taking Rafa in 5 over Thiem. Thiem is a great shape and has proven to be a very tough out on hard courts. After that, he'll get the winner of Zverev/Stan, which is another dangerous match.

Alex Zverev seems much more dangerous during this tourney. He hasn't spent too much time on the court. He's clobbered his early-round opponents like he's supposed to, which is completely different from his other slam QF journeys. In the past Zverev struggled with a few grueling 5 set matches en route to the QF. This Zverev will have fresh legs going into the Stanimal match.

Either way, Nadal's path to the final is a tough one. I see Nadal being gassed and somewhat injured by the time that he gets to the title match against Djoker.

MichaelNadal · Jan 28, 2020

Would love to have traded Thiem for Raonic.

Sudacafan · Jan 28, 2020

octogon said:
I heard none of the players of the players Fed faced for the first 5 rounds were even in top 40. I don't always buy rigged draw theories, but it feels like doing everything possible to keep Fed in till at least the semis. Yet he's still going life and death with players ranked 100 like Sandgren. If Fed actually starts getting tougher than average draws, we'll be seeing more 3rd or 4th round exits from him.

Almost any player that could have given Djokovic any serious match was in Nadal's half of the draw (Wawrinka. Kyrigos, Medvedev, Thiem), so he's had a pretty easy ride to the semis. And Nadal has to take out a murderer's row of players from the 4th round on just to reach the semis.

Law of averages. It is compensating past events now.

tennis_pro · Jan 28, 2020

Because Berrettini

jm1980 · Jan 28, 2020

octogon said:
Almost any player that could have given Djokovic any serious match was in Nadal's half of the draw (Wawrinka. Kyrigos, Medvedev, Thiem), so he's had a pretty easy ride to the semis. And Nadal has to take out a murderer's row of players from the 4th round on just to reach the semis.

Between those, Djokovic could have drawn either Medvedev or Federer. At least before the tournament started, Fed was a tougher match on paper.
Similar scenario with Thiem or Tsitsipas in the QF; on paper they were about the same. Tsitsipas not making it to Djokovic is not Novak's fault.

So this isn't quite as bad as you are making it seem. Also Schwartzman was Nadal's USO QF opponent, so I'm not sure why Rafans are whining about him meeting Novak in the 4R

AM75 · Jan 28, 2020

Fedr's 41, 75, 47, 67, 100 vs Nadal's 73, 76, 30, 26, 5

Yup, Fedr has an extremely tough draw

OrangeOne · Jan 28, 2020

Open Stance said:
I know the random draw is currently done to avoid having the same match ups repeat but these guys move up and down the rankings enough where that probably wouldn't be an issue.

Except for the times when it absolutely would be a massive issue, which is often for a year at a time, where you'd see - especially - the exact same semi-finals over and over. As it is, there's enough variation with players winning / losing, and then variation in abilities thanks to surfaces.

Further, if one applies your "draw locking" throughout the seeds, there would be some interesting anomalies. For example, if #1 is always going to play #16 in the round of 16, arguably it'd be much better to be ranked 17, or maybe 21... than specifically 16. Would we have players then losing the odd match to avoid locking themselves into playing the seeds who are guaranteed to play the big 3/4?

OrangeOne · Jan 28, 2020

AM75 said:
Fedr's 41, 75, 47, 67, 100 vs Nadal's 73, 76, 30, 26, 5

Yup, Fedr has an extremely tough draw

That wasn't "Federer's draw", that is the way the draw has played out. Two very different things.

40L0VE · Jan 28, 2020

So far Federer is having a far harder time getting through his opponents than Nadal against his draw. So the harder draw on paper is academic.

How did Nadal get such a ridiculous draw compared to Djoker & especially Fed?

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