Match Stats/Report - Federer vs Murray, Wimbledon semi-final, 2015

Roger Federer beat Andy Murray 7-5, 7-5, 6-4 in the Wimbledon semi-final, 2015 on grass

Federer would go onto lose the final to Novak Djokovic for the second straight year. Murray would finish the year ranked 2, one spot ahead of Federer

Federer won 107 points, Murray 91

Serve Stats
Federer...
- 1st serve percentage (69/91) 76%
- 1st serve points won (58/69) 84%
- 2nd serve points won (12/22) 55%
- Aces 20 (1 second serve), Service Winners 1
- Double Faults 1
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (37/91) 41%

Murray...
- 1st serve percentage (79/107) 74%
- 1st serve points won (56/79) 71%
- 2nd serve points won (14/28) 50%
- Aces 12 (1 second serve)
- Double Faults 1
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (36/107) 34%

Serve Patterns
Federer served...
- to FH 36%
- to BH 61%
- to Body 3%

Murray served...
- to FH 41%
- to BH 56%
- to Body 4%

Return Stats
Federer made...
- 70 (35 FH, 35 BH), including 6 runaround FHs & 2 return-approaches
- 3 Winners (2 FH, 1 BH), including 2 runaround FHs
- 24 Errors, comprising...
- 8 Unforced (4 FH, 4 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- 16 Forced (6 FH, 10 BH)
- Return Rate (70/106) 66%

Murray made...
- 53 (14 FH, 39 BH)
- 1 Winner (1 BH)
- 16 Errors, comprising...
- 5 Unforced (4 FH, 1 BH)
- 11 Forced (4 FH, 7 BH)
- Return Rate (53/90) 59%

Break Points
Federer 3/10 (5 games)
Murray 0/1

Winners (excluding serves, including returns)
Federer 35 (15 FH, 4 BH, 4 FHV, 4 BHV, 8 OH)
Murray 22 (14 FH, 7 BH, 1 FHV)

Federer's FHs - 3 cc, 3 dtl (1 runaround return), 5 inside-out (1 runaround return) and 4 inside-in
- BHs - 1 cc pass and 3 dtl (1 pass, 1 return)

- 2 from serve-volley points - both first volley, FHVs
- 1 from a return-approach point - a FHV
- 1 other FHV was a swinging shot from no-man's land and has not been counted a net point
- 2 OHs on the bounce - 1 non-net shot from no man's land
- 1 other OH can reasonably be called a FHV

Murray's FHs - 2 cc, 4 dtl passes, 4 inside-out, 3 lobs and 1 running-down-drop-shot dtl at net pass
- BHs - 2 cc, 2 dtl (1 pass), 2 inside-out (1 return pass) and 1 running-down-drop-shot dtl at net pass

- the FHV can reasonably be called an OH

Errors (excluding serves and returns)
Federer 32
- 19 Unforced (11 FH, 6 BH, 1 FHV, 1 BHV)... with 1 non-net FHV
- 13 Forced (3 FH, 8 BH, 2 FHV)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 45.3

Murray 34
- 19 Unforced (14 FH, 5 BH)
- 15 Forced (10 FH, 4 BH, 1 BH1/2V)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 43.2

(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented for these two matches are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Federer was...
- 24/40 (60%) at net, including...
- 8/14 (57%) serve-volleying, comprising...
- 8/12 (67%) off 1st serve and...
- 0/2 off second serve
-
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- 2/2 return-approaching

Murray was...
- 7/10 (70%) at net, with...
- 1/1 retreated

Match Report
Excellent match with Federer serving at his very best and attacking net regularly. Murray plays well too but is shut out on return without being able to do the same to his opponent

Both players having more winners than UEs - Fed 35/32, Murray 22/19 - is very rare for predominantly baseline match and speaks to high quality of play. Fed in fact has more winners than total errors (35-32) which is very, very, very rare. That's a bit flattering to him and as much due to Murray being mild in attack as Federer's play

Serve & Return
The Federer serve vs Murray return is one of the best battles you'll see with both men on top of their games. When that happens on grass, its invariably the server that comes out on top and that's what happens here

Generally speaking, Murray returns Fed's serve better than anybody. Seems to read it, isn't caught out by direction, reaches wide ones, misses very little in swing range and hits firmly. Combination of high return rate and hitting with neutralizing (if not initiative snatching) force is stellar

All of the above is one show here... only what generally passes as Fed's best serves, in this match are his norm. 20 aces from Fed, serving at 76%. A powerful wide serve or a slower very wide one are the easiest first serves Murray faces. And the aces are perfect, nothing to be done against them. Even the second serves are tough, beyond being difficult to attack and in minor weapon range of quality. Its not all about power with him... the placement and variety are just as big a factor in serves effectiveness. In general, this makes Fed's 'serve-botting' showings more interesting than most players who have the ability to blast people away with the serve shot alone

Federer serves 17 games. Not in a single game does he serve more second serves than firsts. Only 4 times does he serve 50% in a game. His worst percentage in a set is the 2nd, where he makes 61% first serves... which would be good as a match long stat. To compensate for it falling that 'low', he wins all 19 first serve points for the set

This serving demo could easily yield 50%+ unreturned rate. Murray keeps it down to 41% by executing all the things mentioned earlier. Fed serve-volleys to enhance potential of his serve but is kept to just 57% won doing so too. When he can reach the return, Murray hits them firmly and neutralizingly. Just 16 errors from Murray, most of them hard forced ones. The rest are out and out unreturnable

Decisive factor in final outcome is in the opposite match up. Murray serves a large 74% in too. He mixes up his pace, usually short of all out to get more in and often in Fed's swing zone. Especially early on, Fed returns inconsistently. About half of Fed's 16 FEs are regulation returns. Murray facing serves like this bops them down the middle firmly, neutralizing servers advantage. Fed struggles to put them in play regularly

Fed tightens up his returning as match wears on, putting balls in play regularly, usually without heat. Its the choice attacking returns that stand out. Couple of superb runaround FH inside-outs (1 goes for winner) and other runaround shots. The two return-approaches are firm hits, not chips

In nutshell, tremendous serving from Fed and great coping of it by Murray, who makes as many returns as possible and even neutralizes good chunk of returns. Fed is left in command of third ball less often then one might expect with serving of this calibre. On flip side, decent serving from Murray met by decent, patchy returning from Fed

Play - Baseline & Net
Fed hammers home advantage from weak returns, ending points quickly and forcefully. Murray tends not to and hits pressuring shots instead. That makes up minority of play; usually, returns leaves rally to start more or less neutrally

Small blackmark against Murray's play from advantageous starting point. Its well within his norm. Just pressuring Fed instead of collaring point means he's somewhat counting on Fed making errors to mildly forceful shots to win points. Its not necessarily a bad strategy, but falls flat here

Both players finish with 19 UEs, all but 1 of them (a not easy BHV by Fed) from baseline. And its actually Murray who gives up more neutral errors (15 to 10). He's not able to outlast Fed. Murray's attacks are centered on moderately trying to beat down Fed's BH, with both BH cc and FH inside-outs

The BH cc's are so bluntly angled that he's likely trying to tempt Fed to move around to hit FHs. When Fed obliges, he hits neutral shots back inside-out

Fed's BH proves up to challenge too and has just 6 UEs for the match. 8 FEs on that side indicate Murray had some success with his plan, but not enough. Fed tends to be pushed back on BH, but gets them in play, uses the slice effectively to keep the ball very low and occasionally opens up a sharp, cc angle or hits dtl attackingly

Its on FH that both players proves more vulnerable. Murray's at times is just not good and he misses regulation balls. Fed tends to be on the move, his UEs are typically tougher balls then Murray's. On whole though, pretty sturdy showing from Fed in terms of being resistant to giving up errors to mildly attacking plays

By contrast, Fed's attacks are 1-2s, opening court and then hitting decisively into it and he's able to do the court opening off both sides. The second part of the equation also involves coming to net to finish

Fed shows lovely touch on the volley to get it short and places deeper volleys away from Murray, but short of into corners. Murray is superb in chasing balls and passing (including lobbing). Small part of Fed's 14/24 points won rallying to net are on back of very strong approach shots and approaches in general are strong. In that light, 58% points won is below par. That's not due to Fed's volleying (just the 1 UE), its due to Murray's passing with 11 winners and forcing 2 other volleying ones

Fed meets heavy resistance serve-volleying too. Customary firm returns from Murray, leaving above average power balls for Fed to volley

Murray by contrast barely comes in. Just 10 times and some of those - including 2 running-down-drop-shot winning passes at net - were forced approaches

So what is Murray trying to do if he's not approaching net or looking to attack with vigour from the back? Beating down Fed's BH and outlasting him is very unambitious for grass. There's no ambiguity to Fed's intention -
- hang in neutrally, look for court opening shot
- if open court, hit into it to finish point... some terrific FHs, especially inside-in and dtl to end points
- if not, Murray tends to be heavier hitter so stay in point and hang tough on BH (neutral FH rallies are easier to turn to attack for Fed so most neutral rallies that stay neutral are BH ones)

Comparing to the final between Djokovic and Federer, Djokovic's beat-down play is much, much harder hitting then Murray's here (also more consistent)

Match Progression
Match begins with a bang, Federer hitting BHV winner first point and a third ball FH inside-in winner the second. Then its Murray's turn as he puts away a flawless FH lob winner and follows it with a BH inside-out one next point to bring up break point. Turns out to be the only one he'd have all match, and Federer responds with 3 unreturned serves

Both players cruise through their service games after that - Fed due to serving outstandingly - he serves at 85% and has 11 aces in the set - Murray somewhat due to Fed missing regulation returns. Some great shots and rallies too - a running BH dtl pass winner by Murray, a low as you can get BHV winner from Fed that was set up by a FH1/2V, a perfect running FH lob from Murray, a FH cc winner from Murray to end a great rally

Fed breaks to end the set. Murray hadn't come to net at all all set but approaches twice from advantageous position. First time, a running Fed fends the ball BH dtl for a winner and on his second break point (the first was wiped out by a Murray passing winner), he's forced into a BH1/2V error. Perfect runaround FH inside-out return winner from Fed in the game too

Fed's serve percentage inevitably falls in second set, but remains high enough and he continues to cruise on serve. And his returning improves - he'd returned at just 60% in first set - to allow rallies to develop on Murray's service games

Murray holds a 20 point game, saving 5 break points along the way. And is again broken to end the set - a pair of Federer dtl winner (1 of each side) and on break point, Fed outmanuvering him to come in a putaway an OH/FHV

Play changes a bit in the third set. Fed continues to cruise on serve, Murray looks to be a bit more attacking from the back. Fed handles attempts to break down his BH. Set and match again ends with a break - couple of error forcing returns by Fed (a deep return-approach and a wide BH inside-out) and an unlikely, running, tapped BH cc pass winner are the highlights. Match point down, Murray misses a third ball FH winner attempt

Coincidentally, all 3 sets end with breaks to 30 with Murray making 4/6 first serves in all the games

Summing up, possibly the best serving performance in Federer's career, combined with finding effective returns enough to gain counter-play and neutrally sound and highly efficient in attack from the back combined with regular trips to net in play. Murray plays well too, especially on the pass and doing as much as possible with the return but is a bit too passive from the back

Stats for the final between Federer and Novak Djokovic - https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/ind...kovic-vs-federer-wimbledon-final-2015.660488/
Stats for pair's '12 final - https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/ind...ederer-vs-murray-wimbledon-final-2012.659944/
Stats for pair's '12 Olympic final at same venue - https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/ind...y-vs-federer-olympic-games-final-2012.633956/

Probably the best Fed has ever served in a match. Shame that couldn't completely carry over into the final.

Federer served lights out in that match. He barely allowed Murray in anywhere. If he had played the same way against Djokovic, which I had fully expected him to do, he would have won his 8th title 2 years earlier than was the case and would have re-asserted his dominance at his best tournament but, inexplicably, he didn't. Djokovic was in his head in a way that Murray wasn't.

After this match was Fed the favorite going to the final?

Jonesy said:

After this match was Fed the favorite going to the final?

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I think most people thought so. I certainly did.

Oh come on, not this again. Fred was little worse in the first two sets of the final (except that first tiebreak, sad), if Djokovic played like Murray he could have easily have gone two sets down and it's a different mental game. The difference maker is Djokovic being able to elevate his play under pressure, which Murray largely failed to do in their respective matches, caving in when Fed put extra effort on return (other than that mammoth hold in the second set but couldn't do that again). It's small margins that counted, as expected on grass.

Mainad said:

I think most people thought so. I certainly did.

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I have this match on DVR and do watch it again on occasion. Before the match, the American commentary crew of John McEnroe, Chris Fowler and Mary Carillo predicted Federer would win. The lone dissenter was Gilbert who correctly predicted Novak in 5.

BeatlesFan said:

I have this match on DVR and do watch it again on occasion. Before the match, the American commentary crew of John McEnroe, Chris Fowler and Mary Carillo predicted Federer would win. The lone dissenter was Gilbert who correctly predicted Novak in 5.

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oddsmakers had Djokovic the slight favorite in the final.

BeatlesFan said:

I have this match on DVR and do watch it again on occasion. Before the match, the American commentary crew of John McEnroe, Chris Fowler and Mary Carillo predicted Federer would win. The lone dissenter was Gilbert who correctly predicted Novak in 5.

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he won in 4. I had fed winning it was the best he played at wimbledon ever

pj80 said:

he won in 4. I had fed winning it was the best he played at wimbledon ever

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Jesus, how many of you people are there?!

Roddick pushed Federer harder at Wim than Murray

What a match

Masterful performance by Fed. Murray was out of his depth

RS said:

Roddick pushed Federer harder at Wim than Murray

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I know this is partly bait, but it’s true. Murray played quite well in 2012 (better than Novak in the semis), but Roddick had superior performances in 2004 and 2009. His 2003 performance was also a bit better than Murray’s 2015 performance here imo.

Third Serve said:

I know this is partly bait, but it’s true. Murray played quite well in 2012 (better than Novak in the semis), but Roddick had superior performances in 2004 and 2009. His 2003 performance was also a bit better than Murray’s 2015 performance here imo.

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Not convinced with 03 SF being better.

RS said:

Not convinced with 03 SF being better.

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Well, Roddick did have a set point in the first set of the 2003 semi. Murray was never close to winning any set. He couldn't even push one to a tiebreak.

Third Serve said:

I know this is partly bait, but it’s true. Murray played quite well in 2012 (better than Novak in the semis), but Roddick had superior performances in 2004 and 2009. His 2003 performance was also a bit better than Murray’s 2015 performance here imo.

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Here's bait:

Murray beat Fed in the 2012 Olympics final, which was played at Wimb...

Federer served well but his ground game had obvious weaknesses. Murray couldn't put many balls in play nor he could put doubts in Fed' mind by returning deep. He could not wear him down extending rallies. He Just hasn't got enough game to hang with in form Federer. still he was close for two sets - with tougher mentality and better shot selection he could have at won at least one. While Djokovic successfully dismantled Fed in final because he is FAR better player. There was not much difference between Federer' level between SF and F. He served well in final too but faced better returner and baseline player. Hence it built pressure on his serve eventually leading to first serve misses. Myth of Federer playing Peak level Tennis in semis needs to busted. Murray has never troubled Federer in Slams - so beating him in straights proves nothing.

mike danny said:

Well, Roddick did have a set point in the first set of the 2003 semi. Murray was never close to winning any set. He couldn't even push one to a tiebreak.

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I think he missed his chance with a UE though IIRC.

D.Nalby12 said:

Federer served well but his ground game had obvious weaknesses. Murray couldn't put many balls in play nor he could put doubts in Fed' mind by returning deep. He could wear him down extending rallies. He Just hasn't got enough game to hang with in form Federer. While Djokovic did it successfully in final because he is FAR better player. There was not much difference between Federer' level between SF and F. He served well in final too but faced better returner and baseline player. Hence deservedly lost. Myth of Federer playing Peak level Tennis in semis needs to busted. Murray has never troubled Federer in Slams - so beating him in straights proves nothing.

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Font let Mainad see this.....

RS said:

Font let Mainad see this.....

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Could not care less. It's not my fault he believes Murray is kind of ATG - so beating him takes peak level from Federer.

Mainad said:

Federer served lights out in that match. He barely allowed Murray in anywhere. If he had played the same way against Djokovic, which I had fully expected him to do, he would have won his 8th title 2 years earlier than was the case and would have re-asserted his dominance at his best tournament but, inexplicably, he didn't. Djokovic was in his head in a way that Murray wasn't.

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why did someone expect federer to serve in the final like he did in the semifinal? this was his best serving performance probably ever. everything clicked on that day. it happens only once in 10 years, even for federer.

JasonZ said:

why did someone expect federer to serve in the final like he did in the semifinal? this was his best serving performance probably ever. everything clicked on that day. it happens only once in 10 years, even for federer.

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Well, when you're on a roll you're on a roll or so I assumed.